Posted on 10/22/2012 1:13:50 PM PDT by JediJones
This is FOX News' Campaign Insiders Monday morning online-only show with Pat Caddell, Doug Schoen, John LeBoutillier and the best, most unbiased, unslanted election analysis in the biz.
What is the state of the race after the second debate and heading into the final Presidential debate Monday night? Is the race basically tied?
Duration 23:27
(Excerpt) Read more at video.foxnews.com ...
http://video.foxnews.com/v/1918050439001/campaign-insiders-10222012/?playlist_id=1690288978001
More of the same meme..”The race is tied!” It is not tied, not because I want it to be so, it just is. It’s been chronicled here ad nauseum about how the MSM is ginning the public through faulty polls that Obama has a shot. It’s over and has been over. Obama is going to lose Ohio, Va., Fl., NH, NC, Iowa and Co..game over. Most of the polls have been oversampling Democrats and no matter how loud the alternative media shrieks about faulty and erroneous assumption even guys like ass clown Rassmusen still wants to fudge his data. Only one thing you can assume, collusion and corruption.
How about Caddell’s prediction that we bomb Libya before the election?
Yes, Caddell thinks they are holding out on bombing some known Al Queda camps until closer to election day. The other guy said Obama might just announce at the debate that the head of the Al Queda guy the NY Times interviewed is hanging at the embassy right now. Half-jokingly...
Caddell said he’s watching for a “typical bump” the incumbent gets in the last week of the campaign. If Obama doesn’t get it, it’s trouble.
Overall they think the momentum will continue with Romney, the race is slightly leaning to Romney, and we’ll be in about the same spot we are now in a week, unless there’s an October surprise or a major gaffe at the debate, which is unlikely. They disagree on whether it would took a huge event to change the momentum or could be something small.
Obama’s approval is around 49%, right at the edge for a very close race.
They are concerned that the early voting from before Romney had his bump in the polls may benefit Obama. Caddell also thinks it’s possible Romney is peaking too early, giving Obama a chance at a rebound.
Caddell said the Romney campaign is still the worst campaign in history, aside from Romney’s debate performances. He thinks Republicans are too rigid in their state strategy like the French in WW1 charging ahead according to a preset battle plan and not making adjustments. He thinks they should be quickly going into states that have been ignored where advantages are opening up due to national trends.
He thinks Pennsylvania is in real play if the Republicans would work harder in the western Appalachians with the conservative base and try to flip the Philly suburbs away from Obama. He says the Pennsylvania problem for Romney was that he was coming off as a rich plutocrat in a blue collar state. His makeover at the debates gives him a chance to change his image there.
Cadell doesn’t trust the Gallup tracking poll and thinks the whole notion of a tracking poll with samples this size and polling spread out over 7 days creates a 6-7% margin of error. He thinks a good poll should only include data over 2 days time.
They think Romney needs to do well in the debate, be clearer about Libya and also mention Obama’s off-mike remarks to Putin. They say the Libya scandal has hurt Obama’s approval rating on foreign affairs and he’s about 49-46 against Romney now on that area.
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