Why? What happened? Somebody is FOS.
Dumb, Dumber and Dumbest.
Turnout on our side is what gives us the chance to prove them wrong. Those who love America have no cause for sitting this election out. It’s all on the table this time around.
Intrade also predicted Obamacare would be struck down... I think it was around 75%
I guess there was an optimist on the deck of the Titanic also.
2) They had the overturning of obamacare at 78% so they have no credibility in this election
3) george soros is investing in intrade to skewer these numbers... just like the economic and jobs numbers are being skewered.
These are gambling odds designed to attract maximum action on both sides of the bet. They have little to do with electoral dynamics.
Keep believing it is true in the face of all evidence against it. And when it turns out not to be true, you’ve set the stage for the Dem base to claim Romney stole the election and to riot. Welcome to the presidency, Mr. Romney! Your first act will be to call out the military to put down riots by Libs who believe this BS.
What were the odds this last weekend that the 49ers were going to beat the Giants at SF?
If these data were reversed we’d be cheering the brilliance of Nate Silver.
Sure. The unemployment numbers are fudged. Obama’s a liar.
But there are certainly 47% at a minimum out there who STILL THINK OBAMA IS DOING THE RIGHT THINGS.
And a lot of the “53%” is locked up in solid, big southern states. The remainder of battleground states are razor thin.
If Obama wins Ohio and Wisconsin by 0.1% then he wins the election. That’s it.
I stopped reading when I saw the source.
There’s 100% chance that Nate Silver is the creepiest person I have ever seen in my entire life. The first and only time I stumbled across him while channel surfing I had to immediately change the station. The few seconds I saw of him were very uncomfortable to watch.
Clearly, with Romney up 2 in Rasmussen today and up 6 yesterday in Gallup, he has no chance of winning.
Nate Silver writes for a liberal audience for a liberal rag that only liberals read. His #1 objective is readership, not the truth. The truth won’t be out until a day or two before the election and until then he needs as many readers as he can get reading his blog.
I love Nate Silver. He is is good with probabilities and all that. He has a method for weighting the value of polls based on some criteria he has. His presentation of the data is near perfection.
But he cannot give up using garbage for data and it will all come crashing down on him when the data starts to get real in the next 3 weeks.
And it will be popcorn time watching the disintegration of Nate Silver and his followers in the days just before and after the election.
Just as a reminder... in 2008, my fellow FReepers were posting as to why Nate Silver was full of crap in his predictions. Just as I see on this thread. Hey, he may be full of crap, but he just plugs in numbers and reports.
It could happen. This isn’t over. Those on food stamps, disability payments, section 8 housing, those making calls on Obamaphones, etc. will show up to vote for a continuance of their benefits. Liberals and black voters (some overlap) will show up to vote for Zero. It will be an uphill battle until the end.
It isn’t over. There are dirty tricks to come.