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NATE SILVER: Obama's Odds Of Winning Have Climbed Back To 66%
Business Insider ^ | 10/18/2012 | Henry Blodget

Posted on 10/18/2012 7:32:56 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

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1 posted on 10/18/2012 7:33:02 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Why? What happened? Somebody is FOS.


2 posted on 10/18/2012 7:34:36 AM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (This is America! Being dead is no excuse not to vote!!!)
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To: SeekAndFind

Crack.Pipe.


3 posted on 10/18/2012 7:34:42 AM PDT by AHerald ("Do not fear, only believe." - Mark 5:36)
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To: SeekAndFind

Dumb, Dumber and Dumbest.


4 posted on 10/18/2012 7:35:46 AM PDT by John W (Viva Cristo Rey!)
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To: SeekAndFind

Turnout on our side is what gives us the chance to prove them wrong. Those who love America have no cause for sitting this election out. It’s all on the table this time around.


5 posted on 10/18/2012 7:35:52 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Record high turnout is our hope for sending 0bama home. Pray hard!!!)
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To: SeekAndFind

bs


6 posted on 10/18/2012 7:36:24 AM PDT by Sacajaweau (r)
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To: FlingWingFlyer

PPP showed no change after the debate. Ressumussen showed a point increase for Romney with one day of polling.

This charade is just like the weeks after the DNC. The media is just manufacturing news to try to convince people it is true. There are zero facts to back this up. None.


7 posted on 10/18/2012 7:36:48 AM PDT by ilgipper
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To: AHerald

So what?
I truly don’t think this means jack.
All signs point to the incumbent being toast.


8 posted on 10/18/2012 7:37:23 AM PDT by Clump ( the tree of liberty is withering like a stricken fig tree)
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To: SeekAndFind

Intrade also predicted Obamacare would be struck down... I think it was around 75%


9 posted on 10/18/2012 7:37:41 AM PDT by libdestroyer
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To: SeekAndFind

I guess there was an optimist on the deck of the Titanic also.


10 posted on 10/18/2012 7:37:47 AM PDT by vetvetdoug
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To: SeekAndFind

Desperate projection.


11 posted on 10/18/2012 7:37:50 AM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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To: SeekAndFind
"Nate Silver of the New York Times"

Surprise!!!

12 posted on 10/18/2012 7:38:41 AM PDT by LibFreeUSA
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To: ilgipper

Or maybe it was that “binders” thing. LOL! Liberals are nuts.


13 posted on 10/18/2012 7:39:53 AM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (This is America! Being dead is no excuse not to vote!!!)
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To: SeekAndFind
1) intrade is a foreign betting site and banned in America

2) They had the overturning of obamacare at 78% so they have no credibility in this election

3) george soros is investing in intrade to skewer these numbers... just like the economic and jobs numbers are being skewered.

14 posted on 10/18/2012 7:39:57 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer (OUR GOVERNMENT AND PRESS ARE NO LONGER TRUSTWORTHY OR DESERVING OF RESPECT!)
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To: vetvetdoug

Someone is going to be real humbled, and others are going to have a good laugh. Someone is right, and someone is wrong. This is great.


15 posted on 10/18/2012 7:39:57 AM PDT by rovenstinez
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To: SeekAndFind

These are gambling odds designed to attract maximum action on both sides of the bet. They have little to do with electoral dynamics.


16 posted on 10/18/2012 7:39:59 AM PDT by andy58-in-nh (Cogito, ergo armatum sum.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Keep believing it is true in the face of all evidence against it. And when it turns out not to be true, you’ve set the stage for the Dem base to claim Romney stole the election and to riot. Welcome to the presidency, Mr. Romney! Your first act will be to call out the military to put down riots by Libs who believe this BS.


17 posted on 10/18/2012 7:40:26 AM PDT by Opinionated Blowhard ("When the people find they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic.")
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To: libdestroyer

RE: Intrade also predicted Obamacare would be struck down... I think it was around 75%

Lots of people lost money there.

I believe Intrade also swang to John Kerry on the early part of the 2004 election eve when exit polls showed Kerry getting most of the votes.

It then swung wildy back to Bush late that night.


18 posted on 10/18/2012 7:41:02 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: LibFreeUSA

Nate Silver. Who in the h3ll is this wacko? Bubba Bob Jones of Waco Texas says just the opposite.


19 posted on 10/18/2012 7:42:15 AM PDT by hadaclueonce (you are paying 12% more for fuel because of Ethanol. Smile big Corn Lobby,)
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To: American Constitutionalist
Trying to protect the undercard now. Dems in places like Va and Fla can't afford for their side to say WTHeck and stay home.
20 posted on 10/18/2012 7:42:15 AM PDT by gov_bean_ counter (ObamaCare is an assault on the unborn, infirmed and elderly. GOP, repeat this as necessary...)
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To: SeekAndFind

What were the odds this last weekend that the 49ers were going to beat the Giants at SF?


21 posted on 10/18/2012 7:42:19 AM PDT by Old Retired Army Guy
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To: SeekAndFind; FlingWingFlyer; AHerald; John W; ScottinVA; Sacajaweau; ilgipper; Clump; ...

If these data were reversed we’d be cheering the brilliance of Nate Silver.

Sure. The unemployment numbers are fudged. Obama’s a liar.

But there are certainly 47% at a minimum out there who STILL THINK OBAMA IS DOING THE RIGHT THINGS.

And a lot of the “53%” is locked up in solid, big southern states. The remainder of battleground states are razor thin.

If Obama wins Ohio and Wisconsin by 0.1% then he wins the election. That’s it.


22 posted on 10/18/2012 7:44:03 AM PDT by sam_paine (X .................................)
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To: SeekAndFind
Nate Silver of the New York Times

I stopped reading when I saw the source.

23 posted on 10/18/2012 7:45:14 AM PDT by TYVets (Pure-Gas.org ..... ethanol free gasoline by state and city)
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To: sam_paine

History is NOT on Obama’s side. His numbers right now across the board are devastating for an incumbent. Name me one trend that points towards Obama winning re-election?


24 posted on 10/18/2012 7:46:48 AM PDT by NoobRep
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To: John W
Dumb, Dumber and Dumbest. Democrat

Fixed!

25 posted on 10/18/2012 7:47:06 AM PDT by Personal Responsibility (The Left blaming Jim Lehrer for the debate is like blaming Liencoln's assassination on the play.i of)
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To: ScottinVA
Turnout on our side is what gives us the chance to prove them wrong. Those who love America have no cause for sitting this election out. It’s all on the table this time around.

I absolutely agree. There are a lot of good signs in Romney's favor these days, however, we cannot afford to get complacent at this critical stage of the campaign. I do not know who Nate Silver is, but we should not abitrarily dismiss people like him, or assume any poll favoring Obama is biased, and therefore inaccurate. We need to treat this as a very close election (as it very well could be) and leave nothing to chance. We need to fight hard for every vote right up until the polls close on election day.

26 posted on 10/18/2012 7:47:14 AM PDT by GreenHornet
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To: SeekAndFind

There’s 100% chance that Nate Silver is the creepiest person I have ever seen in my entire life. The first and only time I stumbled across him while channel surfing I had to immediately change the station. The few seconds I saw of him were very uncomfortable to watch.


27 posted on 10/18/2012 7:47:52 AM PDT by NewJerseyGOP
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To: SeekAndFind

Clearly, with Romney up 2 in Rasmussen today and up 6 yesterday in Gallup, he has no chance of winning.


28 posted on 10/18/2012 7:48:18 AM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: SeekAndFind

Nate Silver writes for a liberal audience for a liberal rag that only liberals read. His #1 objective is readership, not the truth. The truth won’t be out until a day or two before the election and until then he needs as many readers as he can get reading his blog.


29 posted on 10/18/2012 7:49:15 AM PDT by libh8er
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To: sam_paine

RE: Sure. The unemployment numbers are fudged. Obama’s a liar.

California, a high unemployment state, screwed up the numbers last week.

Notice that first time jobless claims were 339,000 last week and then suddenly swung wildly back to 388,000 today. Why? California decided to report their numbers again ( unlike last week ).


30 posted on 10/18/2012 7:50:15 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: All

I think I would trust these gentlemen over Nate “the flake” Silver:

http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/10/04/updated-election-forecasting-model-still-points-romney-win-university


31 posted on 10/18/2012 7:50:35 AM PDT by Signalman
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To: NewJerseyGOP
RE: There’s 100% chance that Nate Silver is the creepiest person I have ever seen in my entire life

Does this look creepy enough?


32 posted on 10/18/2012 7:51:53 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

I love Nate Silver. He is is good with probabilities and all that. He has a method for weighting the value of polls based on some criteria he has. His presentation of the data is near perfection.

But he cannot give up using garbage for data and it will all come crashing down on him when the data starts to get real in the next 3 weeks.

And it will be popcorn time watching the disintegration of Nate Silver and his followers in the days just before and after the election.


33 posted on 10/18/2012 7:53:15 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: SeekAndFind

Just as a reminder... in 2008, my fellow FReepers were posting as to why Nate Silver was full of crap in his predictions. Just as I see on this thread. Hey, he may be full of crap, but he just plugs in numbers and reports.

It could happen. This isn’t over. Those on food stamps, disability payments, section 8 housing, those making calls on Obamaphones, etc. will show up to vote for a continuance of their benefits. Liberals and black voters (some overlap) will show up to vote for Zero. It will be an uphill battle until the end.

It isn’t over. There are dirty tricks to come.


34 posted on 10/18/2012 7:53:37 AM PDT by aMorePerfectUnion (Sorry, gone rogue, gone Galt, gone international. Gone.)
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To: ilgipper

This could be named the Baghdad Bob Poll.


35 posted on 10/18/2012 7:54:19 AM PDT by sanjuanbob
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To: NoobRep
Name me one trend that points towards Obama winning re-election?

47% of likely voters either believe that this unmitigated disaster deserves another chance to turn things around, -or-, they think that Obama is actually making progress toward destroying our country because they, too, hate everything it stands for.

Even if Romney manages to prevail in a "landslide" these people will not "self-deport."

I'd rather have every single one of 12 million illegal aliens than any one of American Democrats voting for Obama....because from a standing start, not being indoctrinated by our leftist school system, the illegals have a higher chance of becoming productive Americans than the twisted "educated" occutard types.

36 posted on 10/18/2012 7:54:23 AM PDT by sam_paine (X .................................)
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To: hadaclueonce
"you are paying 12% more for fuel because of Ethanol. Smile big Corn Lobby"

How does ethanol affect the price of Diesel?

37 posted on 10/18/2012 7:54:25 AM PDT by Paladin2
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To: SeekAndFind

Here is a thing. It may be small, or it may be key:

These are limited access funds, moved by investment.

Soros announced to the best of my knowledge about one or two months ago, he would spend upwards of a million dollars to re-elect Obama.

It is my feeling “Obama” money has flooded the intrade accounts, distorting the percentages in Obama’s favor.

Since the market is limited, a relatively small amount spent can result in a very visible change.

If I were a customer, I would bet against that.

Just saying...


38 posted on 10/18/2012 7:56:29 AM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (America doesn't need any new laws. America needs freedom!)
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To: SeekAndFind

Sure.


39 posted on 10/18/2012 7:57:05 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: ilgipper; All

the money quote from the article is “the polls he (Silver) looks at”....another words he looks at polls that suit his agenda...


40 posted on 10/18/2012 7:58:26 AM PDT by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
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To: SeekAndFind

Delusional beyond belief. Didn’t they see the response of Luntz’s undecideds? Didn’t the see the CNN poll give Romney a 2 to 1 advantage on the economy? They saw it, of course, but pretend these things don’t exist. They have to. They want so much to believe their Messiah will go on a President.


41 posted on 10/18/2012 8:00:48 AM PDT by WashingtonSource
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To: Paladin2

You are correct, no ethanol in diesel yet. How is that new diesel formula working for you?

I can remember when diesel was cheaper than gasoline.

Thanks be to the EPA. Kill Jobs is their motto.


42 posted on 10/18/2012 8:01:10 AM PDT by hadaclueonce (you are paying 12% more for fuel because of Ethanol. Smile big Corn Lobby,)
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To: SeekAndFind

Meanwhile....

http://www.campusreform.org/blog/?ID=4435

So, smoke that one, Silver.


43 posted on 10/18/2012 8:07:53 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Record high turnout is our hope for sending 0bama home. Pray hard!!!)
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To: SeekAndFind; NoobRep

I agree the unemployment numbers were fudged.

I agree Obama is a serial pathological liar.

All I’m saying is that we would be fools to take heart in the FACT that Obama is neck-and-neck with a challenger right now.

1984: 525 EVs Reagan, 13 EVs Mondale (a liberal, but not an America hater)

2008: 365 EVs Marxist Obama (Jane Fonda’s hero), 173 EVs McCain (resident of Hanoi Hilton)

2012: 260 MINIMUM EVs for a proven American hating commie narcissist

It looks like a trend....but is it really good? Or is it a hardening of the Communist vs. Constitutionalist division in the country. This is something to be happy about?


44 posted on 10/18/2012 8:11:00 AM PDT by sam_paine (X .................................)
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To: SeekAndFind

Today’s unemployment numbers, the exposure of his debate lies and the Benghazi cover-up shoots blows this analysis out of the water.


45 posted on 10/18/2012 8:13:11 AM PDT by jersey117
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To: SeekAndFind

Today’s unemployment numbers, the exposure of his debate lies and the Benghazi cover-up blows this analysis out of the water.


46 posted on 10/18/2012 8:13:30 AM PDT by jersey117
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To: hadaclueonce
"How is that new diesel formula working for you?"

Not so well price wise.

Taking sulfur out is OK, but the price of bioDiesel is still way too high. The algae sourced stuff seems to be always just over the horizon. There is still the potential of running Diesels on CNG.

47 posted on 10/18/2012 8:15:20 AM PDT by Paladin2
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To: SeekAndFind
InTrade can be moved by less than a carrot
48 posted on 10/18/2012 8:20:55 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the psychopath.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Nate silver is a crazy ex Daily Koz radical leftist trying to lie and intimidate all other posters into using Axelrod’s 2008 voting patterns.
He is a nasty fraud.

Intrade crap is a useless scam .
Its an offshore gambling operation packed full of foreigners and con artists .
It operates outside of Us and international law in Ireland !
It’s means nothing !
Why is it used by the leftists unless
They have rigged it !!
Think about it !


49 posted on 10/18/2012 8:21:51 AM PDT by ncalburt (Axelrod Psych OPS has gone to 24/7 non stop - "The election is over " status until Nov)
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To: SeekAndFind

The Tea Party(40 to 60 million maybe more) seethes and awaits..
Most of whom will not answer a Poll..


50 posted on 10/18/2012 8:42:41 AM PDT by hosepipe (This propaganda has been edited to include some fully orbed hyperbole..)
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