Skip to comments.NATE SILVER: Obama's Odds Of Winning Have Climbed Back To 66%
Posted on 10/18/2012 7:32:56 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Obama's odds of winning re-election have climbed back to 65%-70% since the second debate, according to three sources we're tracking:
First, Nate Silver of the New York Times now gives Obama 66% chance of reelection. That's up from a post-first-debate low of ~60% a few days ago. And Silver says the impact of Obama's strong performance in the second debate hasn't yet factored into the polls he looks at.
On Intrade, meanwhile, Obama's odds have climbed back to 65% from a post-debate low in the high 50s.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
Why? What happened? Somebody is FOS.
Dumb, Dumber and Dumbest.
Turnout on our side is what gives us the chance to prove them wrong. Those who love America have no cause for sitting this election out. It’s all on the table this time around.
PPP showed no change after the debate. Ressumussen showed a point increase for Romney with one day of polling.
This charade is just like the weeks after the DNC. The media is just manufacturing news to try to convince people it is true. There are zero facts to back this up. None.
I truly don’t think this means jack.
All signs point to the incumbent being toast.
Intrade also predicted Obamacare would be struck down... I think it was around 75%
I guess there was an optimist on the deck of the Titanic also.
Or maybe it was that “binders” thing. LOL! Liberals are nuts.
2) They had the overturning of obamacare at 78% so they have no credibility in this election
3) george soros is investing in intrade to skewer these numbers... just like the economic and jobs numbers are being skewered.
Someone is going to be real humbled, and others are going to have a good laugh. Someone is right, and someone is wrong. This is great.
These are gambling odds designed to attract maximum action on both sides of the bet. They have little to do with electoral dynamics.
Keep believing it is true in the face of all evidence against it. And when it turns out not to be true, you’ve set the stage for the Dem base to claim Romney stole the election and to riot. Welcome to the presidency, Mr. Romney! Your first act will be to call out the military to put down riots by Libs who believe this BS.
RE: Intrade also predicted Obamacare would be struck down... I think it was around 75%
Lots of people lost money there.
I believe Intrade also swang to John Kerry on the early part of the 2004 election eve when exit polls showed Kerry getting most of the votes.
It then swung wildy back to Bush late that night.
Nate Silver. Who in the h3ll is this wacko? Bubba Bob Jones of Waco Texas says just the opposite.
What were the odds this last weekend that the 49ers were going to beat the Giants at SF?
If these data were reversed we’d be cheering the brilliance of Nate Silver.
Sure. The unemployment numbers are fudged. Obama’s a liar.
But there are certainly 47% at a minimum out there who STILL THINK OBAMA IS DOING THE RIGHT THINGS.
And a lot of the “53%” is locked up in solid, big southern states. The remainder of battleground states are razor thin.
If Obama wins Ohio and Wisconsin by 0.1% then he wins the election. That’s it.
I stopped reading when I saw the source.
History is NOT on Obama’s side. His numbers right now across the board are devastating for an incumbent. Name me one trend that points towards Obama winning re-election?
I absolutely agree. There are a lot of good signs in Romney's favor these days, however, we cannot afford to get complacent at this critical stage of the campaign. I do not know who Nate Silver is, but we should not abitrarily dismiss people like him, or assume any poll favoring Obama is biased, and therefore inaccurate. We need to treat this as a very close election (as it very well could be) and leave nothing to chance. We need to fight hard for every vote right up until the polls close on election day.
There’s 100% chance that Nate Silver is the creepiest person I have ever seen in my entire life. The first and only time I stumbled across him while channel surfing I had to immediately change the station. The few seconds I saw of him were very uncomfortable to watch.
Clearly, with Romney up 2 in Rasmussen today and up 6 yesterday in Gallup, he has no chance of winning.
Nate Silver writes for a liberal audience for a liberal rag that only liberals read. His #1 objective is readership, not the truth. The truth won’t be out until a day or two before the election and until then he needs as many readers as he can get reading his blog.
RE: Sure. The unemployment numbers are fudged. Obamas a liar.
California, a high unemployment state, screwed up the numbers last week.
Notice that first time jobless claims were 339,000 last week and then suddenly swung wildly back to 388,000 today. Why? California decided to report their numbers again ( unlike last week ).
I think I would trust these gentlemen over Nate “the flake” Silver:
I love Nate Silver. He is is good with probabilities and all that. He has a method for weighting the value of polls based on some criteria he has. His presentation of the data is near perfection.
But he cannot give up using garbage for data and it will all come crashing down on him when the data starts to get real in the next 3 weeks.
And it will be popcorn time watching the disintegration of Nate Silver and his followers in the days just before and after the election.
Just as a reminder... in 2008, my fellow FReepers were posting as to why Nate Silver was full of crap in his predictions. Just as I see on this thread. Hey, he may be full of crap, but he just plugs in numbers and reports.
It could happen. This isn’t over. Those on food stamps, disability payments, section 8 housing, those making calls on Obamaphones, etc. will show up to vote for a continuance of their benefits. Liberals and black voters (some overlap) will show up to vote for Zero. It will be an uphill battle until the end.
It isn’t over. There are dirty tricks to come.
This could be named the Baghdad Bob Poll.
47% of likely voters either believe that this unmitigated disaster deserves another chance to turn things around, -or-, they think that Obama is actually making progress toward destroying our country because they, too, hate everything it stands for.
Even if Romney manages to prevail in a "landslide" these people will not "self-deport."
I'd rather have every single one of 12 million illegal aliens than any one of American Democrats voting for Obama....because from a standing start, not being indoctrinated by our leftist school system, the illegals have a higher chance of becoming productive Americans than the twisted "educated" occutard types.
How does ethanol affect the price of Diesel?
Here is a thing. It may be small, or it may be key:
These are limited access funds, moved by investment.
Soros announced to the best of my knowledge about one or two months ago, he would spend upwards of a million dollars to re-elect Obama.
It is my feeling “Obama” money has flooded the intrade accounts, distorting the percentages in Obama’s favor.
Since the market is limited, a relatively small amount spent can result in a very visible change.
If I were a customer, I would bet against that.
the money quote from the article is “the polls he (Silver) looks at”....another words he looks at polls that suit his agenda...
Delusional beyond belief. Didn’t they see the response of Luntz’s undecideds? Didn’t the see the CNN poll give Romney a 2 to 1 advantage on the economy? They saw it, of course, but pretend these things don’t exist. They have to. They want so much to believe their Messiah will go on a President.
You are correct, no ethanol in diesel yet. How is that new diesel formula working for you?
I can remember when diesel was cheaper than gasoline.
Thanks be to the EPA. Kill Jobs is their motto.
So, smoke that one, Silver.
I agree the unemployment numbers were fudged.
I agree Obama is a serial pathological liar.
All I’m saying is that we would be fools to take heart in the FACT that Obama is neck-and-neck with a challenger right now.
1984: 525 EVs Reagan, 13 EVs Mondale (a liberal, but not an America hater)
2008: 365 EVs Marxist Obama (Jane Fonda’s hero), 173 EVs McCain (resident of Hanoi Hilton)
2012: 260 MINIMUM EVs for a proven American hating commie narcissist
It looks like a trend....but is it really good? Or is it a hardening of the Communist vs. Constitutionalist division in the country. This is something to be happy about?
Today’s unemployment numbers, the exposure of his debate lies and the Benghazi cover-up shoots blows this analysis out of the water.
Today’s unemployment numbers, the exposure of his debate lies and the Benghazi cover-up blows this analysis out of the water.
Not so well price wise.
Taking sulfur out is OK, but the price of bioDiesel is still way too high. The algae sourced stuff seems to be always just over the horizon. There is still the potential of running Diesels on CNG.
Nate silver is a crazy ex Daily Koz radical leftist trying to lie and intimidate all other posters into using Axelrod’s 2008 voting patterns.
He is a nasty fraud.
Intrade crap is a useless scam .
Its an offshore gambling operation packed full of foreigners and con artists .
It operates outside of Us and international law in Ireland !
It’s means nothing !
Why is it used by the leftists unless
They have rigged it !!
Think about it !
The Tea Party(40 to 60 million maybe more) seethes and awaits..
Most of whom will not answer a Poll..