Illinois Orphans (GOP winning in IL races)

We Ask America ^ | Oct 12, 2012

[1010RD]

Illinois is one of those areas considered by some as an “orphan state.” Barack Obama will surely win here easily with Chicago leading the parade. Like the other orphan states (California & New York) candidates in key Illinois congressional races cannot count on millions of dollars being spent to by the campaigns of Barack Obama or Mitt Romney to persuade voters to put their state in the red or blue column on magic white board election night.

The congressional races are in essence the campaigns leading the parade but they are on their own. It also means that in some of these targeted districts, President Obama’s home state advantage is a bonus for Democrats aspiring to knock off Republican opponents. Just so we can pile on even more, the new congressional maps in Illinois were drawn totally by the controlling Democratic Party.

Since some of the polling we’ve done for clients here have recently been released or leaked and we’ve received requests to publicly poll these races, we went back into these six key districts over the past two days to offer up public results. We’ll give you a thumbnail sketch of each with the basic numbers. (Good info at links)

[1010RD]

Illinois 8 (North Central Collars)

Tammy Duckworth (D)

45.18%

Joe Walsh (R)

47.89%

Undecided

6.93%

Illinois 17 (NW Illinois)

Cheri Bustos (D)

46.14%

Bobby Schilling (R)

45.81%

Undecided

8.05%

Illinois 13 (East Central)

David Gill (D)

41.81%

Rodney Davis (R)

43.92%

John Hartman (I)

5.55%

Undecided

8.72%

Illinois 11 (Western Collars)

Bill Foster (D)

44.32%

Judy Biggert (R)

46.05%

Undecided

9.63%

Illinois 10 (Northern Collars)

Brad Schneider (D)

45.42%

Bob Dold (R)

47.29%

Undecided

7.29%

Good commentary on and analysis of these races at the site.

[1010RD]

Some confirmation out of Illinois for your polls. All are within the margins, but this is after the Dems redistricted in their favor.

[1010RD]

Of interest to your list.

[jonascord]

Regardless of what happens Downstate, all the Electoral College votes are going to Obama.

That's why Chicago doesn't want Voter ID. They would actually have an honest election, and the concept frightens Democrats.

[bigbob]

I’m in Schillings new District (Don Manzullo was gerrymandered out) and have met him a couple of times. Good guy, and I think he’ll pull it out, being virtually tied and with 8% Undecideds. Much will depend on how de-motivated Obama’s voters are, and how well the GOP can GOTV.

This would be a big win, because his opponent Bustos is a personal friend of Dickie Turdbin and I’d love to see this one blow up in his face.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks 1010RD.

[GeronL]

everyone says Ohio is THE swing state this year, which Congressional Districts are they talking about?

[Perdogg]

ping

[Don Corleone]

The DNC is seriously worried about the down ballot impact of the Kenyan and Plugs performances. It could easily become a RNC hat trick.

[libertymaker]

I'm in Walsh's old district. It was a great experience working on his campaign in 2010 with the huge Tea Party wave. I'm now in Roskam’s district, which is safe GOP. Therefore, I'm putting the donations and work into Walsh's new district. He is an excellent Tea Party candidate.

As a side note,it's being whispered around the State in the district campaign offices, if Chicago turnout is low, Romney could pull an upset and win Illinois. Win or lose, we will fight like hell and make them earn everything.

[stars & stripes forever]

I believe Shilling will win the 15th Congressional District. What is left of the original 15th district before the gerrymandering took place is solid Republican... Plus NWIL Republicans VOTE big time as well as an energized Tea Party and other conservative groups.

Many people in our area hang up on pollsters. This poll does not reflect the true statistics, especially the 8%

[bIlluminati]

Ohio - The U.S. Senate seat is up for grabs, with oversampled Ds. Brown leading Mandel, despite a massive campaign to say “Mandel is lying.” Funny how they never say what about, so anyone could actually look it up for themselves. But then again, people who gather their own information aren’t the Demonrats target demographic.

In Congress, Stivers (R, incumbent, Columbus) appears to have a safe lead. Kaptor (D, 9th, incumbent, Toledo) should be safe vs. Samuel Wurzelbacher (Joe the Plumber). Brad Wenstrup (R, beat incumbent Schmidt in primary, southern Ohio) should win vs. William Smith.

About even is Betty Sutton (D, incumbent, northeast Ohio) vs. James Renacci (R, incumbent) but Renacci should win as Obama has campaigned heavily in the district. Bill Johnson (R, incumbent, coal country) has a slim lead vs. Charlie Wilson (D, long-time incumbent). Wilson has not campaigned with Obama in 2012 as Wilson wants to win his old district back. Hereditary Rep. Joyce Beatty (D, Columbus) will ascend to the designated Demonrat district after beating former D Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy, Ted Celeste and Priscilla Tyson.

David Joyce (R, northeast Ohio) is running in Steve LaTourette’s (R) old district, and is a slight favorite vs. Dale Blanchard, who has lost the last ten times he has run for the seat.

[GeronL]

Thanks

[uncitizen]

Speaking of Chicago, does anyone know if Oprah has campaigned at all with or for Obama? Just curious to know if even she’s given up on him.

[GeronL]

Thanks for the help

Meet the Swing Voters Who Will Decide This Election

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2944126/posts

[PhilCollins]

I live in Mundelein, which is in Rep. Walsh’s current district. In the new map, I’ll live in Rep. Dold’s district. I agree that Gov. Romney might win Illinois, because of the 2010 election results. In that year, IL elected a new republican U.S. senator, treasurer, and comptroller, to replace retiring Democrats. The IL GOP gained four seats, in the U.S. House.