Romney still faces an uphill battle on Electoral College

New York Times ^ | Nate Silver

[oneprolifewoman]

The FiveThirtyEight forecast had Mr. Obama gaining slightly on Wednesday, estimating that he had a 86.1 percent chance of winning the Electoral College on Nov. 6 — up from 84.7 percent in Tuesday’s forecast.

This came despite the fact that it appeared there actually had been a modest shift back toward Mitt Romney in the polls even before the debate. In our “now-cast” — an estimate of what would happen if an election were held immediately — Mr. Obama’s projected margin of victory in the national popular vote had fallen by about one percentage point between Sunday and Wednesday.

Our Nov. 6 forecast, however, had already anticipated some decline for Mr. Obama, and so has been less sensitive to the shift.

In addition, there is a particular Electoral College outlook that is becoming problematic for Mr. Romney. As of Wednesday, our Nov. 6 forecast had Mr. Obama winning the popular vote by 4.1 percentage points. However, his advantage was larger than that — at least 4.9 percentage points, in 22 states (and the District of Columbia) — totaling 275 electoral votes:

[Nifster]

I agree with your sentiment

Both LA and NY have a slimes....figures.

[DemforBush]

I most definitely agree with your message. Romney did great last night, but there’s still work to do. I won’t rest easy until I hear Obama give his concession speech on election night.

[WOSG]

Yup.

If Romney wins, it will be back to the pitched battle of left vs right, with the left still running the media, academia and half of Washington, including all Democrats and some GOP staffers.

If Obama wins, the lights go out on America. Its over.

[CPT Clay]

He Won’t, his livelyhood depends on touting the One. Intellectual honesty is not his strength.