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“Then why is there any doubt that Romney will win? White guilt. Stupidity. What? Long term whites on welfare ... I just don’t understand.”

The 47% comment was pretty much on point. People are going to vote for what they perceive as their own interests. If your interest is in drawing a check rather than producing, well then you’re going to vote accordingly.

This election is not going to be like 2008 which in my view was an anomaly. In 2008, large numbers of people who typically don’t bother to vote DID vote. I think overall turnout this time will be much lower and the election will be decided largely by the turnout of respective bases. That in a nutshell is going to be willard’s salvation and problem: enthusiasm amongst some on the gop side of the equation is very high primarily due to their intense opposition to hussein. However on the very conservative end of the political spectrum willard is not much liked.

It’s anyone’s guess as to how that salts out. My personal view is that quite a few who are not enthusiastic about willard on the very conservative side of the spectrum will ultimately decide to hold their noses and vote for willard. But there are others such as myself who will not. I’d speculate that it’s somewhere around a 70:30 split in willards favor. And that’s amongst the very conservative. The more centrist conservatives break very strongly for willard.

For what it’s worth I do think willard is being significantly under polled. With the exception of Rasmussen, I think the polls are off. It’ll be a close election and is nowhere near being in the bag for either candidate.