May I claim skepticism here.
I’ve been a member of FR since 1999, and every time we have backed a losing candidate, during the lead up to the election many of the articles on FR are about how biased the samples are, that we should ignore them, because it is obvious that the other candidate is a traitorous, dirtbag socialist and the average American will not vote for them.
We nominated unexciting establishment candidates, and when the polls reflected such, we went into denial, claiming all kinds of sampling bias, only to wake up to a very different reality on the day after.
How is this election any different from Dole and McCain?
Can you name any big time elections since Truman versus Dewey where the majority of the pollsters got it wrong and the so-called undersampled party won.
I’m not trying to be a wet blanket, but damn, I’ve seen this movie before. :(
Please convince me otherwise.
Discouraged D
The one fragment of hope that I have is that the most reliable pollster out there, Rasmussen, has Romney leading 48-46 nationally, with leaners. Obama is -3 overall in job approval, and the intensity index is -17. That last number... the indicator of turnout.. is the wild card.
Therein lies the difference between this year and past losing elections. Republicans and conservatives know the score on this marxist POS who occupies the White House, and we can turn this election on its ear by surpassing the dems in turnout. We have no excuses for sitting at home this year. If we can get R turnout to the mid- to high-70% range, Romney has a chance to eke out a win.
It comes down to this.... who thirsts for victory the most?
How is this election any different from Dole and McCain?
Can you name any big time elections since Truman versus Dewey where the majority of the pollsters got it wrong and the so-called undersampled party won.
I’m not trying to be a wet blanket, but damn, I’ve seen this movie before. :(
Please convince me otherwise.
Several are mentioned on this thread and in Rush's transcript.
1.) 1994 mid-terms: The MSM had the dems holding on, yet they got creamed and Gingrich became speaker.
2.) 2004, mentioned above. Kerry was supposed to win, and exit polls showed him winning, but the polls were BS and he lost.
3.) 2010 mid-terms: No one in the MSM predicted the Republican (Tea Party) tidal wave.
4.) The Walker recall: It was supposed to be close with Walker losing. WRONG.
I know what you mean about Freepers claiming poll bias. They had me believing McCain would win in '08. However, you did not hear that sort of thing from Rush and other talking heads. It was all from Freepers in denial. The MSM has been too transparent with their bogus polling this time around. They are trying their damnedest to make people believe this is over before the debates. I've seen several lead stories on Yahoo! today pushing this meme very hard, with titles like "With superior ground operations, the president widens his lead". That's not a headline, that's outright adoration.
I see the race as a tie right now as Rasmussen shows it.
No one said this back in 1996. In 2008 it was close until the market collapse and McCain suspended his run.
And what about the polls the media spun in 2000, 2002, 2004, and 2010 that supposedly showed runaway wins by Democrats? They were playing with the number then too, or flat-out not reporting them.
You may think this is all coo-coo about what people are saying about polls, but it is far from it. People have been looking at this as logically as you can and cannot figure out the logic in the results, which in many cases are showing 2 completely separate results, and this is from asking MORE DEMOCRATS than republican, sometimes up to 20%!
Yes ignore them, because they are taking nothing into account other than 2008 turnout models and voter IDs that were based on Obama-mania.
This cannot be repeated at those levels.When you see that this fool cant even attract crowds to his appearances, you ought to know that the polls are not sampling reality in 2012.
“I’m not trying to be a wet blanket, but damn, I’ve seen this movie before. :(
Please convince me otherwise.”
I agree that there is always going to be a positive spin on FR for our side. What else would one expect on a conservative website. In some instances we wish cast ala 2008 with McCain even though we knew that guy was weak, especially after suspending his campaign. But in other instances we watchdog ala 2004 with memogate. We keep the MSM honest and expose them and the candidate they back to level the field. We accurately filter the MSM to try to get to a real picture of what is going on.
So, which is it this time? I think it is a little bit of both.
In this instance there is an unprecidented media drive to elect Obama. Never before has the MSM been so invested in a candidate an so overtly dishonest. The polls have been proven to be skewed and biased as never before. This is not wish casting but based on scientific analysis. It is also interesting to note that the pollsters who have been judged the most accurate by past performance have this election tied and utilize a solid sampling model to break down D’s, R’s and I’s.
So here is what I want to convince you of otherwise, that we have an incumbent President who has celebrity status and those types are NEVER easy to unseat. Nonetheless, enough of the people seem to have decided that this guy is taking the country in the wrong direction. We all know this guy’s sins and failures. But we also have a candidate that is leaving many people asking, “what would change if Romney were elected and why should I vote for him?” We tend to forecast our understanding of Obama and his failure on the general electorate and why Romney would be an improvement. But Romeny has to make that case and so long as Romney can’t and can’t provide the electorate with a clear picture of Obama’s failures he is toast. Still, despite what the “too little too late” crowd has to say, Romney has time and money.
Oh, and a word about the debates. Romney has already lost each of them because the MSM has already written that story and we will be BOMBARDED with a billion of those stories after the debates are over regardless of his performance. And you know what, there are lurkers and, I hate to say it, other Freepers who will read the MSM stories while not having bothered to actually watch the debates and come on here with their spouts of “Romney is toast, etc. etc. etc.”