Posted on 09/26/2012 12:50:43 PM PDT by Red Steel
It’s too early to draw strong conclusions, but it’s a good bet that early voting in Ohio will surpass 2008 levels. More than 10 percent of Ohio’s registered voters — 723,000 including military personnel and overseas residents — have mailed applications for absentee ballots to county election boards, according to the office of Secretary of State Jon Husted. In 2008, about 30 percent of Ohio voters cast absentee ballots by mail or voted early in person.
This year’s early in-person voting begins Tuesday.
-snip-
Much of the early action is in Cuyahoga (Cleveland) and Hamilton (Cincinnati) counties. In Hamilton, absentee ballot requests are running ahead of the 2008 pace by 3 to 1, according to Board of Elections director Amy Searcy. As of this morning, her office had received 58,727 requests. Of those, 9,453 were from voters who requested Democratic ballots in primaries this year, and 17,824 from voters seeking Republican ballots. The rest were nonpartisan.
The nearly 2 to 1 partisan split mirrors current registration in the county, which is about 98,000 Republican and 45,000 Democratic. ...
“There are a lot more people who identify as Democrats,” she said. “It’s all a snapshot.”
-snip-
Romney rally this morning in the central Ohio town of Westerville, Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) urged the crowd to cast early ballots.
“I’ve got a question: How many of you still have an application for an absentee ballot? Let’s see those hands, you’ve gotta do it,..."
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
My county is very red (it’s gone for the Dems 3 times since 1900, voting for FDR, Johnson and Obama) but I was seeing lots of Obama stickers and T-Shirts at this time in 2008. Not so, today. In fact, when I see a car with Obama stickers, they usually have multiple stickers. And this is in a county where I was still seeing Kerry-Edwards stickers on cars in 2010.
Those may be national ads bought from the network rather than the cable system. I kind of doubt it, though, because my wife watches Hallmark and HGTV and I haven’t seen any Obama ads.
Los Angeles..I dont see any Obama Ads on my local channels(CBS, NBC, ABC, KCAL, Fox 11) only on the cable channels..I already saw it three times today, I quickly change the channel since the sight of Obama makes me physically ill
The Obama ads are also running in Riverside and San Bernardino.
“Obama won Hamilton 225,000 to 195,000” =your money quote.
I have no idea what the Romney team/state GOP thinks is their “ideal” Hamilton Co. number, but I’d have to think it’s at least a 50,000 advantage. When you throw in Warren, that should amount to about an 80,000 advantage.
That leaves Romney needing about 45,000 vote advantage from all of the rest of OH combined. Do you think that’s hard?
In OH and NC (don’t know about FL) when you request an absentee ballot, I think they note whether a registered R or D, based on address, has requested the ballot. But, yah, we know. And the numbers look REALLY good in OH so far.
Do me a favor-—I can barely keep up with all the numbers. When you do an update like this can you say, “GOP advantage is now 5728, UP from last report of 5500” or something like that? Thanks. BTW, Rush came very close to discussing these specific numbers today. He spoke in generalities, but I thought he was going to “go there.” He has them.
However, take that % and multiply times your margins in Cayahoga and you can get a pretty good idea where we are. You CANNOT say "the difference of 258,000 shrank to 42,000 because the Cuyahoga #s represent ALL votes, not just early votes.
That said, I think Cuyahoga's D/R ratio is three to one, and at this pace, they will come in well under 2008.
So when you ask what happens in Cuyahoga Co., the answer is, nothing. It's doing what it does . . . except at a slower rate than in 08 and is underperforming.
I haven't checked today, but as of yesterday the percents were 54% for Ds and 24% for Rs---but in 2008 the victory margin was 68-30!! So the Rs have lost six points but the Ds have lost 14 off their 08 pace.
Do you think that Romney can turn Hamilton around in his favor and reduce the damage coming from Cuyahoga? Personally, I don't think Romney can win without Ohio.
I really believe that Romney and Ryan need to go after Obama's personal narrative. They need to attack his phony autobiography, his associations, his political philosophy, and his murky past. They can do it thru surrogates, but it needs to be done and done soon given the start of early voting. How say you?
Subtract 14% of 458,000 (64,000) from 458,000 and you get 394,000. Then subtract 6% from the 2008 R number of 200,000 (12,000) and you get 188,000, or a margin in Cayahoga of 206,000. Don't know how you get 100,000.
Is 206,000 out of Cuyahoga enough for Zero to win OH? Cause he won't many other counties except for the NE cluster.
Then you have to factor in the fact that we've seen GOP absolute advantages (so far) of 5700 in Franklin (way higher, as McCain lost this county by 21%), of 7000 in Warren (to be expected), and when you look at ALL the counties McCain won in OH in 2008 (hard to imagine) Clermont, Green, and Clark alone would offset the upper NE counties. The killer was that Hamilton went for Obama by 6%---but now Rs are leading absolutely. That's a big swing.
So we have Ras who says it's a tie; Gallup that has a +5 Dem sample to get a 1-2 point Obama lead, and a slew of polls showing Dem turnout at +9 in OH. Wow. And Stephen Hayes is an expert on OH?
Wow, those seem like they’d be way to far west to hit NV...sure they’re broadcast ads and not national cable buys?
In Ohio in person early balloting starts on Oct 2. Is the GOP pushing early voting in Ohio? Is it easy to do? This is usually where the Dems pile up their votes and margin of victory. Someone mentioned to me that McCain actually won more votes on election day than Obama. It is estimated that 40% of the votes will be cast prior to election day.
I’m not sure but they run constantly. They just started airing a new one about how Romney won’t protect the middle class.
Don’t know about “early” and don’t know statewide, but in Montgomery Co. (a crucial county), someone who gets an absentee ballot gets a “walk” and “door knock” within 24 hours after getting the ballot to make sure they get a slate card.
Are the absentee ballots counted on election night?
Then that’s way too high. Maybe 50,000 between Ham and Warren?
Let’s see:
Warren in 04: Difference b/w Bush and Kerry was 41,933.
Hamilton in 04: Difference b/w Bush and Kerry was 22,937.
Together: 64,870 margin for Bush. By contrast, McCain only got a 8,610 margin from the two combined.
So maybe the Romney campaign is aiming for something similar to the Bush margin.
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