The margin of error for the poll is plus or minus 4 percentage points. That's a big percentage. 
Posted on 09/24/2012 4:01:00 PM PDT by Ron C.
HELENA – Republican challenger Denny Rehberg holds a slight edge over Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Tester in the state’s most expensive and hotly contested campaign this year, a poll by Lee Newspapers shows.
Rehberg, the state’s sole congressman, is favored by 48 percent of those polled earlier this week, while Tester had the support of 45 percent. Only 6 percent were undecided and 1 percent said they would vote for Libertarian Dan Cox of Hamilton.
“Usually, if an incumbent is trailing, that’s a problem,” said pollster Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which conducted the poll for Lee Newspapers in Montana. “(But) this is just too close to call.”
Mason-Dixon polled 625 Montana registered voters who said they are likely to vote in the Nov. 6 general election. The margin of error for the poll is plus or minus 4 percentage points – so Rehberg’s lead is within the margin
(Excerpt) Read more at missoulian.com ...
Among those polled, 36 percent said they are Republicans, 34 percent said they are Democrats and 30 percent consider themselves independent. However, Coker said the polling results indicate that independents in Montana tend to lean Republican.
Hence a slight over-poll of Republicans
Read the rest - this is a chance to pick up another unforeseen Senate seat. Hope it happens!
Rehberg had been slamming Tester for taking more money from lobbyists than anyone else in Congress this term... until Tester released a video of Rehberg praising Lobbying as a “noble profession” and that he seriously considered becoming one.....
ugh
Let’s all send Rehberg a small donation. If every freeper sent $5 or $10 it would add up big.
This race is not an unforeseen pickup. It is critical w Missouri now down the tubes.
Like in PA, MT voters have disappointed us many times.
Missouri is not necessarily down the tubes.
This is not “unforeseen”....this race favoring Rehberg has been brewing in his favor for quite some time.....only now have the outside nets taken notice.
Montana is not a typical state, straight party voting is not that common. If folks think the Dims will retain control of the Senate they will vote for Tester, if they think the GOP will get control they will vote for Rehberg. Same for the House.
Romney is ahead but not by as much as I would expect, O was competitive last time around which was surprising and more libs have moved into the state since then. The Dims will probably keep control of the Governorship, Schweitzer would easily win if he was not term limited so I suspect his popularity will rub off.
Absentee voting starts soon and I think it could be a big factor in the Senate race, there are plenty of folks like me who wont vote for either liberal at the top of the ticket and it remains to be seen if they will bother to show up or vote absentee.
MT is just the kind of place where a Libertarian can divert a Senate race to a Democrat.
That's kind of wild. A state with more Senators than Congressmen and thus a Congressman who represents more people than the Senators do. He deserves a pay raise.
Missouri is not down the tubes if the NRSC and the GOPe PACs wake up and come to their senses.
Actually, that spread is about right for Montana, IIRC.
In seven states the at-large congressman has the same number of constitutents as the two U.S. senators — all the voters of the state. But Rehberg has more constituents than any other member of the House because MT is the largest of those seven states.
Akin is more likely to win without the support of the grand pooh-bahs than for them to come to their "senses."
Missouri Senator Blunt on the radio yesterday said that the NRSC/GOPe expect that a full scale aire assault on Akin will begin today and if he weathers the assault and is still within a few points in a few weeks then the PACs will come back in to support him.
Why? Did Akin step down?
More good news
The margin of error for the poll is plus or minus 4 percentage points. That's a big percentage.
If Rehberg would stick to attacking Tester on his miserable leftwing record... he wouldn't have such problems.
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