Skip to comments.Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen: Tie @ 46-46
Posted on 09/22/2012 10:19:14 AM PDT by abb
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows President Obama and Mitt Romney each attracting support from 46% of voters nationwide. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. See daily tracking history.
When leaners are included, its Obama 48% and Romney 47%. Leaners are those who are initially uncommitted to the two leading candidates but lean towards one of them when asked a follow-up question.
While we all are freaking about this election, the fact that Obama is at 46% just 40 days out is a great sign. Romney has to make his case, and at the same time pin our lackluster economy on Obama, and tie his policies to the fact that we are heading in the wrong direction.
If I were to look at this fall campaign in an optimistic light, I watch these campaigns and see Romney’s campaign running with a fair level of comfort in their current position, and I see the left jumping out of their skin over every little thing. I hope that means we have a 30 day plan to put this guy away. The fact that we see Obama settle back down to 46% tells me the Romney group is in fact still seeing the numbers they want for Obama, and know they can close the deal in the final month.
I did a search using “rasmussen” in keywords and title, but no response. Oh well, that’s the breaks.
Obama’s toast. Start packing your bags Mr. Empty Chair...
Fiuve percent of the voters or about 5 million people STILL don’t know if they have had enough of Obastard or not.
Can someone explain to me how the national tracking polls are so close, yet Mittens is still losing in most of the vital swing states?
Who cares if the national polls are a dead heat if Mitty can’t win Ohio and Florida and Virginia?
Every electoral map I’ve seen shows Prince Hussein (swine vomit be upon him) at around 230-240 and Mitty at 180-190, and the math being that Mitty will have to pick up almost every swing state to win.
Maybe the state polls are lagging the national ones, but if that’s the case then the electoral maps should start showing better for Mitty, and so far I haven’t seen it.
The "prefer another candidate" category amuses me. Who? Gary Johnson? Virgil Goode? They will not be able to combine for more than 0.4% of the vote. It's only between Romney and Obama and on Nov 6, all these undecideds are going to have to land somewhere and by an overwhelming margin, it will not be Obama.
A 58-42% victory by Romney is not out of the question and it could be larger. If Romney blows away Obama at the upcoming debates and launches a massive media blitz like Reagan did in October 1980, we could be looking at a 74-26% victory here. Now that's a real long shot but within the realm of possibility.
For some reason, the 74.42% number sticks in my head. Would be nice if that was the percentage of votes that Romney/Ryan get.
Saying who you will vote for and actually going out and voting are 2 completely different animals.
Swings states always lag behind.
For example, when Obama got his big bounce following DNC and was up 5 in Ras, and 7 in Gallup, the swing states still showed the race tied. (So the question then was: How is leading so much in the national polls but tied in swing states?).
Now that the bounce is gone and the national polls are tied, the swing states are still incorporating the bounce factor.The larger sample in a particular state has not yet flushed out the bounce. Just the way it’s always worked, historically.
Saw a great Romney ad here in Dayton the other night.
They know. This late, if they aren’t committed to him, I think it’s a “let’s try the other gut.”
“If Romney blows away Obama at the upcoming debates and launches a massive media blitz like Reagan did in October 1980, we could be looking at a 74-26% victory here. Now that’s a real long shot but within the realm of possibility.”
Please come back to reality! :)
Bush had an Eisenhower-style landslide over Dukakis and won 40 states, and he still only won 54-46. I think that’s the biggest victory you can expect here, and even that is too optimistic in my view.
Generally, Obama does better on weekend polls. I guess more Republicans are out shopping because they work during the week, or are otherwise working on weekends.
The fact that the Obamanation is now just EQUAL to Romney AND he is an incumbent, doesn’t look good for the Obamantion as an incumbent.
I think Romney will pull this off if he best Obama in the debates - he will have to deal with hostile debate moderators thinks to the stupidity of the GOP.
Because they are cooking the state polls too. Polls that don’t use the 2008 turnout models show Romney ahead in FL, VA, NC, OH and CO, which is enough to win.
Start packing your bags Mr.Empty Chair.
yeah, and your empty chair, and your prayer rug, and your collection of Karl Marx and Saul Alinsky, and the fatassed whats her face.
Don’t worry about all the people who will suffer because of your incompetent fantastical ego.
Aloha,you do not deserve to live in Hawaii punk ass.
Wisconsin Recall Rasmussen Walker 50, Barrett 45
Actual Walker 53.1 Barrett 46.3
I haven’t seen anyone compare the swing state results in the 2010 elections, to the current polls. Nationwide the Republicans swept many state legislatures and governorships, is that massive conservative turnout wave going to be different in 2012? I don’t think so.
Anecdotally, I work do bridge maintenance in Oregon. In 2008 Obama stickers and yard signs were EVERYWHERE. Yesterday while flagging on a busy road, I saw 2. A Toyota Prius (A PRIUS!) drove by with a RR sticker! I think without a Saddam Hussein style rigged election (which is possible) Obama is completely toast.
Dont worry about all the people who will suffer because of your incompetent fantastical ego.
Aloha,you do not deserve to live in Hawaii punk ass.
If he cares about them he’ll invite him to his new $35 million mansion on Oahu...more likely they’ll be discarded like everyone else in his life.
Posted this in the other Ras thread so will post here:
Rasmussen and Gallup do surveys of party affiliation, The last Ras party affiliation done in Aug had +4.3%R, Gallup Sept # (after the rat convention) is R +1.23.
Rass history is here:
The polls mostly reflect the 2008 Turn Out model, which is why they sample +6-10% D, Rass numbers fro 2008 were +7.6D highest he ever measured.
Does anyone believe the rat voters are more enthusiastic than 2008? That is what all the major polls are assuming.
Even Rasmussen and Gallup are using a +2-3% D turnout model.
This guy has a terrific website where he rebalances the polls to reflect the party affiliation numbers. The results are remarkable.
Of the 7 major polls this past week the rebalanced polls show Romney anywhere from 50.06-50.37%, and Obama anywhere from 45.92-46.13%. This is a remarkably tight spread.
The average of these polls is Romney 50.33%, Obama 46.23, with 3.44% undecided. lets say Romney get ~60% of the undecideds you end up with Romney 52.4 and Obama 47.6 a 4 pt Romney win. This comes pretty close to the economic model prediction from the Univ of Colorado.
They Project Romney 52.9, Obama 47.1
What this tells us is that:
THE ONLY DIFFERENCE AMONG ALL THESE POLLS IS THE TURNOUT MODEL ASSUMED BY THE POLLSTER!!!!!!!!
Please understand the game here folks. Knowledge is power. The media polls are IMO a misinformation campaign to discourage conservatives.
Romney doesnt have to blow away Obama in the debate. He just needs to not disqualify himself as an acceptable alternative to the failed Bozo.
This election is all about Obamas failed presidency.
Note these analysis dont factor in the 1% that will go to third party candidates.
Romney really strikes me as a “plan” guy and not a reactive or play it by ear guy. Didn’t he run similarly in the primaries? ie. wait, watch, fire? He may be unnerving the other side. Ever have encounters with someone really calm or passive? It can make you feel crazy.
Yesterday on Judge Judy, one couple (non-AAA) were fighting over foreclosure funds they had received from Obama, they were referring it as Obama rescue fund.
People like them will vote for Obama.
I am worried.
The new plan is to let only that part of the truth out that shows them at least tied. This is done now to instill fear in his leech constituents he actually could lose. An excuse to beg for more 'small money' contributions, an excuse to scare Obama-disappointed issue voters to man the ramparts again, and an excuse to still try and make think conservatives their man doesn't have a chance.
My nightly prayers to God ask that he end this tyranny of nontruth and give the faithful reason to remain faithful to correct the murders of unborn souls, stop taking the labors of the faithful, and give US hope for a change.
Or the undecideds will stay home, if they don’t like either candidate.
If PA is the 'lock' that all the enemedia are trying to convince everyone it is,
WHY have I seen three traitØr ads in just the past hour since turning on the tube ?
And they weren't on the expected alphabet liars, but relatively mid-market ESPN2 and BigTen networks !
Smells like maggØt fear !
12 The wicked plot against the righteous
and gnash their teeth at them;
13 but the Lord laughs at the wicked,
for he knows their day is coming.
14 The wicked draw the sword
and bend the bow to bring down the poor and needy,
to slay those whose ways are upright.
15 But their swords will pierce their own hearts,
and their bows will be broken.
16 Better the little that the righteous have
than the wealth of many wicked;
17 for the power of the wicked will be broken,
but the LORD upholds the righteous.
Hear our prayer, O Lord
Hear our prayer, O Lord
Incline thine ear to us
And grant us thy peace. Amen
Good news, as I believe before Obama was ahead.
Now, we have the issue of the leaners, which right are are tilted slightly in Obama’s favor, but not as much as yesterday, which is great.
Appears Romney has perhaps escaped this last two-week barrage of unprecedented attacks okay.
“Appears Romney has perhaps escaped this last two-week barrage of unprecedented attacks okay.”
Oh, I’m sure they (the media) will create another “gaffe” to dog him next week.
I think the debates are going to be the true turning point.
I was looking at the Rasmussen site and I thought that he accounted for the 2008 methodology vs the 2012 methodology (and showed the polls both ways). If I remember correctly, it still showed them tied or Barry slightly ahead (still not a good sign for an incumbent at this stage).
I was also thinking - they should be looking at the 2010 methodology - I think that election sent a clear picture of America’s dioscontent with the POTUS.
that was really the final rasmussen number in WI? That surprises me.
The RCP average was better...I think.