Skip to comments.Romney Double Digit Lead?
Posted on 09/22/2012 6:00:35 AM PDT by markomalley
The war of the polls gets a little wearisome for non-wonks, but well keep this short and sweet. The mainstream media are rigging the polls. No headliner there, but just how bad is it? It could mean that Romney has as much as a double-digit lead of 54-44 in Realityville. How, you ask? Because the Democrats are fooling themselves in terms of likely voter party identification and voter enthusiasm.
An Ipsos/Reuters poll trumpets a five point lead for Barack Obama, and since the rest of the media keeps tight as a herd of cows before a thunderstorm, millions believe it. Such rainmaking, or using polls to make results instead of report them, is common in the pro-Democrat mainstream media.
But these polls are bogus, to put it mildly. Simply put, the mainstream media are mixing in registered voters (which skews Democrat, even though many might not vote), and playing games with the Republican-Democrat-Independent breakdown.
Rasmussen has this breakdown as about 37.6% Republican (and a record number since November 2002), 33.3% Democrat, and 29.2% Other. As the Examiner reports, the Reuters/Ipsos poll has 52.5 percent Democrats, 37.6 percent Republicans and 9.2 independents among the 2,078 registered voters and 1,437 likely voters.
Thus, Reuters/Ipsos is oversampling Democrats by about 15% and undersampling and misrepresenting Independents. Independents are favoring Romney, not leaning Democrat, so it is dishonest to lump together Independents and Democrats.
Many more strongly disapprove of the presidents job in office than strongly approve, the majority dislike big government policies, and most believe the country is on the wrong track. More trust Mitt Romney on the economy, which is overwhelmingly this elections most important issue, and the presidents lead on foreign policy is shriveling.
If anything, the presidential polling should be neck-in-neck. The only landslide here is the mainstream medias reputation crumbling and their continued slide into irrelevance.
I hoping the biased polling also suppresses the ‘rat cheating and voter fraud because they think it’s unnecessary.
If the cheating were to be done by the rank-and-file average 'Rat then this would probably hold true. But I suspect that the fraud will be perpetrated by the Dem power structure who get to see valid internal polling and as a result know how much cheating is required. I just hope that a lead/victory of 10 points or greater puts the result beyond the margin of fraud.
The war of the polls gets a little wearisome for non-wonks, but we'll keep this short and sweet. The mainstream media are rigging the polls. No headliner there, but just how bad is it? It could mean that Romney has as much as a double-digit lead of 54-44 in Realityville. How, you ask? Because the Democrats are fooling themselves in terms of likely voter party identification and voter enthusiasm.Not Rush this time!
But it might keep some undecided OR UNINFORMED voters from voting, thinking obozo WILL be the winner so why vote for Repubs or why vote at all.....
We need to convince our voters to disregard the biased ‘polls’ and vote obozo out!
Massive voter turnout for our side is what it takes to vote out the liar hypocrite traitor obozo!
The democrats have been fixing elections for many years now without much opposition and this election will probably be the most contentious in American history with lying liberal justices like Roberts and four others decidng who they want to be President. When the SCOTUS became Congress and Congress became all thieves and fools, America died and we are now just another Western socialist nation with dictators deciding who lives and who dies.
This is what happens to all pagan nations who deny God’s Christ and belive in utopian governments.
If for no other reason, I desperately want Romney to win just to debunk that punk Nate Silver.
If the internal polling is showing this, it could explain Obama’s disinterest in most things Washington, including the recent ME uprising. He may be just biding his time to push the domestic and foreign messes onto the new guy in January.
Don’t candidates get to ‘keep’ all the money they raise?
McCain ‘borrowed’ $20 million from his presidential funds of 2008 to run his Senate campaign in 2010. $20 million? Maybe if he had used that, as intended, for his 2008, he might have won. But, McCain is a whole other subject.
It’s going to be a Romney blow out. There is a big drop off in voter enthusiasm by black and young people. And I believe that latinos finally see Obama as the snake oil salesman that he is.
I believe that the Democrats know that this is going to be a wipeout against Obama, and in manipulating the polls with their willing and eager media accomplices, are setting the stage for a charge of voter fraud and cheating against the R&R campaign to derail or de-legitimize a Romney administratoin from the get-go.
“The mainstream media are rigging the polls”
They have to rig the polls because they are in cahoots with those who have rigged the voting machines. This will not be an election-—it will be a selection by the soros and his ilk who will not rest until they see hussein drive the final stake into the US and our Constitution.
Winner Winner Chicken Diner. Just like that Boy-Toy John Kerry waited to the next day to Congradulate GWB, and Dan Blather went on endlessly about Ohio to 3 in the morning waiting for the last 2 or 3 percent that could pull it out for Kerry when it was a Mathematical Impossibly...
It was all about de-legitimization of Bush's 2nd Term. And like a Dumb Ass he went along with it and was magnanimous and didn't declare victory until the next afternoon.
He should have declared victory with Bravado, I hope the Mitser does, especially if it is a 10 point blow out. He should strut around the stage like Mussolini and rub their little socialist noses in it...
The problem is will their be trouble as people their votes were stolen or the election was....
My reply from some other threads about rigged polls;
“I got an interesting call yesterday! Rigged! A recording, asking who I was going to vote for. From DC. It required simple Yes/No answers.
First question, answer yes or no; Do you intend to vote for Romney?
I attempted to answer Yes, but the space left for the answer was suddenly filled with a series of beeps, like someone dialing the phone. When the beeps stopped, one word, Obama? Betcha my Yes during the beeps was recorded for Obama. At the very least, there was no way you could vote for Romney!”
Obama is buying a home in Hawaii. It will be ready in Jan. 2013. Maybe he already understands the polls are controlled by Democrat operatives and the MSM is the Democrat Party at work each day to fool everyone.
So beware of the echo chamber effect where Rasmussen touts an equally unbelievable statistical anomaly just to show Romney ahead, and the crowd here in denial over the rest of the polls, believes in Rasmussen.
The REAL poll results only come in (for most polls) the weekend before the election because even those purposely tilting towards Obama have their reputations to think of.
The MSM has shoved Obama down the throats of viewers and readers too much. It seems most people are tired of hearing and seeing this arrogant person spout off as if he knows what he is doing. He reminds us of an out of control radical professor who is not in touch with reality. Obama thinks he knows what is right for the world, when the majority of time he is absolutely wrong.
A fifty something advantage to Romney would not surprise me. Only the most insanely lickspittle party loyalists or Fauxsheviks could support Obama at this point.
Either that, or after he wins he'll sign an Executive Order moving the Presidential Palace to Hawaii. Boo Yah!
Hes moving away from the mainland to Hawaii to escape the coming chaos that he is purposely creating here.
Your post was to long to quote, so I’ll just say that I completely agree with you. It’s nice to know that others think the same thing I’m thinking.. thanks!
There is no way you get to a 52.5% Democrat sample unless you are intentionally skewing the polls. This is more than mere pro-Democrat bias. Obama sued Gallup for showing him losing the race, and the other pollsters are doing whatever they can to avoid a similar fate. Obama is a tyrant who has no regard for freedom of speech or of the press, and the pollsters know it.
I have to wonder if Nate Silver “cell phone” effect is the Leftist equivalent of Conservative 2008 wishful thinking about the “Bradly Effect”. The Leftist seem desperate to find some reason, like Conservatives did in 2008, why their candidate is not doing better in polling then they think he should.
I doubt phone usage has changes so much in 4 years that this massive under sample due to cellphone use that Silver claims is really there. I suspect the number of cell phones in use were pretty similar in 2008 to today. I doubt the numbers have changed that much.
Silver is basing his assumption on an unprovable just like Conservatives did in 2008. He fails to realize that polling is not like Baseball stats. In Baseball you either hit the ball or you don’t. In polling there is a large measure of uncertainty that requires pollsters to “guess” at their sample mix.
Silver wants to apply his expertise in baseball statistics analysis to election polling analysis, it is an apples to oranges comparison.
So Rass who actually polls for this and came up with that number, which happens to match up fairly well with current party voter registration figures, is "living in fantasy land" while you who base your statement on nothing stronger then your own opinion are dealing in reality?
Please explain to us then why the Media pollsters, who base their sample on an assumption of turning out more Democrat voters in 2012 then they did in 2008 are not also living in fantasy land?
Let us assume, like you do, that Democrats have a 3-4% party registration advantage.
Now reweigh the pro Obama polls down to that sample mix.
Well look at that, re-weighing the polls to the +4 Dem sample you want to use gives Romney either a slight lead or a tie.
The same thing Rass is showing in his polling.
I read somewhere that Rasmussen’s party break-down is based on an average of 2004 and 2008 — and not the part identification he had in the August survey.
yep! could work both ways, just gotta get out there.
I can’t believe, even if Obama’s internals show him as losing badly, that he would just throw in the towel with 7 weeks left. That’s just not the style of Democrats. They will give it everything they got. His disinterest in what’s going on in the Middle East may, in fact, show he believes he’s winning big or will win big by cheating and chicanery.
The mainstream media are rigging the polls
Studies of polls in the past have shown how they are conducted.
1. A list of registered voters is drawn from public records.
2. Phone calls are made from 10:am to about 3 p.m. Who is in their home at this time?
3. Widows on Social Security;the unemployed;people on government assistance, mostly.
4.Minorities are disproportionately represented because they have higher unemployed or governement assisted- rates.
This is a perfect population to skew the results in favor of Democrat thinking irregardless of the party afilliation.
And how many cautious (if not frightened )people do not want to be thought of as racists. Just answering the phone poll shows a compliant personality to begin with.
Remember the Reagan-Carter race? The polls showed Reagan losing right up to the last few days of the election. Then Reagan won by a landslide. Yes...Romney is no Reagan but the case can be made that Obama is perceived as worse than Carter.
I think there could be something to this. I saw a Yahoo headline today that said “Romney Campaign Trails in Crucial Ground Game.”
I just couldn’t help laughing when I saw that! I think the MSM knows that we aren’t buying their bogus polls, so now they are trying out this “Romney trailing badly in ground game” narrative to try and depress us.
Both campaigns have internals, if you see Obama start campaigning in PA, WI, MI than you know they got serious problems in their own internals...
Like that picture. So it’s true, he really is the first gay President.
Hawaii will probably protect him from warrants and summons also. I think it’s the safest place for him to go (next to Indonesia or Kenya) to avoid arrest or prosecution.
[ I read somewhere that Rasmussens party break-down is based on an average of 2004 and 2008 and not the part identification he had in the August survey. ]
Yes, Rasmussen is using a Rat +2 sample.
I still can’t get Manchelle’s forlorn, sad look out of my mind as Bath-House Barry gave his final speech at the DNC convention...she looked totally depressed, didn’t she? (I think she knows they’re gonna lose BIGTIME.)
Romney needs a bump that peaks on election day.
Then Reid will make sure the Capitol is completely cordoned off to keep out all the smelly commoners.
Glad to say I did not watch a minute of the DNC convention nor any lowlight videos...
I appreciate the post. I do see a downside to the rigged polls though. It can depress the vote, if folks think it’s a lost cause.
Even on FoxNews I see folks talk about how much Romney was hurt this week. The polls if anything show him breaking even. If it was a bad week for him, imagine how bad a week Obama had, still dead even, even in these rigged polls.
When Romney stomps his ass by 15 to 20 points, we should turn around and march on the DNCp outlets. We’ve had enough and they damn well better get the message.
Did you somehow miss the mid-term elections of 2010 when the Democrats suffered massive defeats because the Republican turnout was larger than the Democrat turnout?
The Republicans picked up six Senate seats, 68 House seats and nearly 700 seats in the state legislatures. It was a massive GOP rout at the national, state and city/town levels of government and the mainstream media either didn't see it coming or they didn't want to admit it was coming.
If anything, we are going to see even a larger blowout on November 6.
Fox News is just another liberal channel, as far as I can see. The reason why we perceive them as being conservative is because the alternatives are so far out if left field that even a moderately liberal channel like Fox News is perceived to be right-of-center.
Something to think about when watching them.
The polls are clearly nonsense..
Obama will not win a single state that he did not get 55% of the vote in 2008.
Obama has a TOP absolute TOP of 42-43% of the popular vote, and with the campaign he’s running, him not getting 40% isn’t beyond possibility.
Don’t believe for one second this race is neck and neck.. let alone Obama is up. Fight like it is neck and neck, but don’t fall for this Propoganda.
I agree with that. I watch FoxNews, but they screw up constantly. You can tell Conservatism isn’t truly in their heart.
In some ways FoxNews is good. In some ways, it muddles things so folks don’t truly see the left for all that it is.
You couldn’t be more wrong Rasmussen has been tracking this number monthly since early 2004, the results give a very good insight on how the parties will perform in the election check the results for 11/2005, 11/2006, 11/2008 & 11/2010.
In ras’s daily tracking polls he is using a +2-3 dem turnout model still.
Link to ras’s party affiliation table
Exactly what I was thinking except from the other side. If the lib media get it set in peoples’ minds that BO is 5 or 8 points ahead of Romney, then they can stuff the ballot box as much as they want with BO illegal ballots because people will expect it.