Skip to comments.Daily Presidential Tracking Poll [46 Days Away, Obamugabe at -9]
Posted on 09/21/2012 7:03:56 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows President Obama attracting support from 46% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns 45% of the vote. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided...
Intensity of support or opposition can have an impact on campaigns. Currently, 30% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way Obama is performing as president. Thirty-nine percent (39%) Strongly Disapprove, giving him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -9
(Excerpt) Read more at m.rasmussenreports.com ...
The trend is not our friend right now. Obamugabe has a 51% approval. Damn depressing.
WHy 30% strong approval for Obamagube????!!!!
Why do you say that. Obama lost a point from yesterday
I know it’s early but go back to bed and take rest..
Broad brushstrokes, people. Hussein being at 46% is a good thing, and his “bounce” from the “”47%” speech seems to have peaked or is over. Keep your chins up! The economy still stinks and gas is over $4 per gallon, and these facts won’t change over the next 7 weeks.
I’m baffled as to why Zero’s approval isn’t at the usual -15 to -20 level. Is there something that’s keeping conservatives, libertarians and Republicans away from their phones on weekday evenings this September????
Sorry, but the trend is not that bad. Given the tsunami of critical press (the choir is all on the same song line, odd isn’t it?) on TWO things; 1) the Libya statments from Romney; and 2) the 47% comment, you would think he’d be 5-7 points down. He’s one point down, which can be overcome. The press iwll continue its best efforts as the White House propaganda office (no better example than their weekly lying about the jobless claim numbers which they said were “down” from the prior week - ONLY because the Labor Dept. did its quiet after-the-fact upward adjustment of 3,000 - had they printed the true figure, the headline would have been “jobless claims remain steady at stubborn highs”.
Anyone know if Rasmussen uses the 2008 polling model?
Rasmussen with Obama up is not a good thing. One thing worries me and that is the belief which is being peddled that the black vote will be down. Not going to happen. In addition to racial loyalty blacks are reaping the benefits of redistribution and they know it.
That’s why this may be closer than it should be. Obama has 100% of that black vote.
This week was inverted from most, with Romney entering the week with a lead, and losing it by Friday...I assume the fallout from ‘47% Gate’.
But that fallout is over...the non-stop media blitz has subsided, as soon as people started bringing up Obama’s unscripted moments of ‘redistribution’ and ‘clinging’.
Its got its mileage...but the ‘campaign ending story’ has about run its course.
I’ve believed that Romney has a chance, if he can hang close until the debates....so far he has...he has to perform well in the debates.
I personally believe that Rass has ‘altered’ his special sauce over the past couple of weeks. As good of a pollster as he’s shown to be, his methodology does have some bias from time to time. I remember back in 2009 or so when Rass was the first pollster to show Obama’s approval dropping like a rock, Axelrod called Rass out on it and suddenly Obama’s numbers started getting better.
Bottom line is that EVERY pollster is human.
As for his approval rating, two things. First. $4 gas is now the new norm as is 8% unemployment. And it is all driven by the media. For example, when it was $4 under Bush (for 3 months, never mind 3 years) it was nightly sob stories (Pain at the pump etc). But now the price of gas is all but ignored. And so the rubes just take it in stride. Sadly.
Secondly, I truly belive Obama gets a sympathy vote because a.) he’s first black preez, and b.) the media has made him a sympathetic figure who inherited a mess and needs more time.
As for race. I do think an incumbent prez at 46% is a dangerous place to be. And he did lose a point. So I think the Romney 47% remark is now built in - and had little impact (it appears to be noise now re: Obama’s lead). This poll reflects 3 full days of the 47% video.
It will all come down to turnout, based on polls. If, like lib media polls say, the turnout is D+6-8, Obama wins. If it is closer to D+2-3, Romney wins.
It would be depressing if we could believe it... but we can’t. We can’t trust anyone.
Rasmussen changed his sample from R+1 to D+1 in the past month. Gallup has it D+4. And they also changed the blacks from 11% to 13% (per Axelrod).
I think it will be a dead heat in turnout (like 2004). My only fear is Rs getting depressed from the constant media barrage of “Obama is a lock” meme.
A big hope is the rumors of Romney/RNC investing heavily in a ground game - hence the lack of spending on ads.
Did you read the ridiculous Scott Ras column in townhall today ?
He is village idiot .
He Massaged this poll for that 47% flap .
I would not trust any of his polls after reading his ridiculous
Logic in that column.
He jumped the shark big time !
Obama does NOT have 100% of that vote.. He didn’t get 100% of that vote in 2008!
What is with all the teeth gnashing??? I really don’t get people on this site.
You really need to stop living and dying by every single poll that comes out... stop it! You are just driving up your blood pressure for no good reason.
Polls are tools, and useful tools, but they are NOT the be all end all of the world.
If you want to feel better, just turn the damned news off, go out and TALK TO PEOPLE... from all walks of life, socioeconomic backgrounds, political affiliations, religous groups, etc.. just go out and TALK... don’t preach, don’t judge, just talk to them and if they are willing to talk about the election talk about it, and see where they are. You do that, and you’ll feel a lot better.
Obama is not going to carry a single state he didn’t carry in 2008 by 55% of more, not a one. He’s not going to carry 47 or 48% of the vote in November. More realistic numbers are he’s at best going to be in the low 40s.. 42-43%.. and very likely lower than that.
Please, stop this nonsense... get off the ledge... the sun’s going to come up tommorrow! Stop driving yourselves crazy over daily polling numbers.. just stop it!
Fight like its neck and neck, but stop letting this stuff bother you! The world isn’t over because polling is showing a point this way or that way over a few days.
We go through this every single election cycle. Scott Rasmussen is our best buddy when we like the results of his polls, and, if we don’t, then he’s suddenly become a sellout. Whether we like his results or not, he’s generally about as accurate a pollster as you’re going to get. Personally, in a presidential election cycle I don’t pay much attention to any of them until after the debates.
I saw that Ras piece myself this morning. I don’t think he did himself any favors. He is supposed to lay out the numbers, and then provide some factual context for the result. Not go on a anti Romney diatribe 45 days before the election.
And it seemed odd that his poll swung on the very day (to almost provide evidence for his opinion piece). I mean, if Romney had maintained his lead, his op-ed would have been meaningless. So presto. Obama pulls into lead. It seems suspect. I agree.
No... He actually has the GOP +3 or +4. He does a periodic update based on the samples he receives in his polls... So... he’s the most accurate pollster out there...
What exactly did he say?
No look at the trend. Obama had 1 really usually good day. Those happen in daily polling from time to time. The trend is all ready starting to flatten out suggesting this blip is statistical noise, not a new trend.
What were the results of the swing state poll?
Welcome to FR..
Hmmm, not sure I’m calling him a sellout. I’m just pointing out the fact that his results are not without some bias.
I keep saying it over and over, and I’ll keep saying it.....
FORGET ABOUT ROMNEY’S NUMBERS, just look at Obama’s numbers. If the poll says “Romney 48/Obama 46”, it’s the same thing as “Obama 46/Romney 45”, because in both cases, the incumbent, the known quantity, the candidate who has a record that they will be judged on is at 46%. So if Obama gains a point and Romney loses two points, that’s not a 3 point swing. It’s just Obama gaining a point.
If the final poll is “Obama 46/Romney 45”, then Romney wins and he wins big, because an incumbent who can’t get above 46% will not win. When Ras starts showing Obama at 50% or above on a consistent basis, then you can say he’s ahead, until then, he’s not ahead.
I think (and hope) that you are right that this latest attack wave on Romney is fading.
Rasmussen had a different weighting for every day in June 2012, as an example. Went from a low of +3% to a high of +14%. Can’t tell you how they got the figures. So, you can believe that the same is true in September 2012.
Odd, because in June, Republicans had an advantage in total registration/party ID of +1.4%.
By today you would think most of the damage of the 47% video has been done and if Romney is only down by one that’s really not that bad. You would think Obama’s comments on Unision yesterday will start to show up in the polls.
Obama gained six points on the week.
Than why was Ras bashing Romney today like previous people have said?
No, not you personally, didn’t mean to imply that. Sorry. But the term has actually been used against Rasmussen here, especially when his polls started consistently showing that McCain was about to get his clock cleaned.
Never gnash my teeth. Obama leading in Rasmussen is not a good thing. And yes 100% is an exaggeration based on one poll showing that, however Obama will get at least 95 % of the black vote.
Dick Morris and many here think the black vote will decrease from 2008. I doubt it. Blacks want to reelect Obama big time, and they react as a group when he is under attack. Plus there is lots of redistribution going on and they know it.
Didn’t say we will lose, but when some now start asking for Rasmussen’s internals, it’s grasping at straws.
Otoh Gallup has Obama’s approval down. How most Americans could possibly approve Obama’s performance is beyond me.
You are correct and I’m just saying but, perhaps Rasmussen is adjusting to reflect a higher dem and specifically higher black turn out, as it develops.
Can we win this? Absolutely. But white voters and specifically conservative voters need to know they are in the fight of their lives.
Not in the intensity-tracking poll. He’s down to a net -9 on the strongly approve/disapprove index.
I’ve walked and talked to the “black community” as the pollsters and pols like to call it, I can tell you right now, yes, he will get the majority of the black vote like all democratic politicians do, but he won’t get 95% of it, and black overall turnout will NOT be anywhere near 2008 levels.
If you think enthusiasm in that community is ANYWHERE near what it was in 2008, you are grossly incorrect.
I hope you are correct.
Turnout will be NOWHERE near 2008, easily 1-2 Million fewer blacks will go to the polls nationwide in 2012. Obama will carry the overwhelming majority of those that do vote, but it won’t be 95% of them.
This election was over before it started folks, this is all bread and circuses as far as I’m concerned.
No way, none, this is a neck and neck race.. Obama will not win any state that he carried with less than 55% of the popular vote.
Fight like its a neck and neck race! But Obama has no chance at re-election.
According to the RealClearPolitics composite poll, George W. Bush was above 50% for one day (Sept. 9, 2004) and at 50% for one day (Sept. 27, 2004) during the 2004 election and he managed to win the election. What 2004 proves and what 2012 could be reaffirming is that a very beatable incumbent can win if the other side runs a complete dud.
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