Rasmussen Iowa President: Romney 46%, Obama 44%

Rasmussen Reports ^ | 08/10/2012 | Scott Rasmussen

[iowamark]

The presidential race in the battleground state of Iowa remains a near tie.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Iowa Voters finds Mitt Romney with 46% support to President Obama’s 44%. Five percent (5%) prefer another candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) are undecided...

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Iowa was conducted on August 8, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC...

Rasmussen subscribers can read the rest of this article.

[iowamark]

On June 11, Rasmussen had Romney leading by 1: 47/46%.

Obama Defeated McCain in Iowa in 2008 by 54-44%.

[woweeitsme]

Wow...didn’t realize McCain lost that big there. The trend seems like a good thing, and I think turnout from both sides will make the difference in Iowa.

[treetopsandroofs]

Faux News is pulling for the Fraud...

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/08/09/fox-news-poll-obama-lead-grows-as-romney-support-slips/

[GOPJ]

bttt

[Lou Budvis]

IA is crucial as it appears NV is a lost cause and CO is dicey.

[MNGal]

Romney winning in Iowa would be huge. This poll belies the recent Fox News Poll out recently.

I don’t, for one minute, believe any national poll that has Obama ahead—especially by 9 percentage points!

[txrangerette]

What if both Iowa and Wisconsin flip?

[concerned about politics]

I think turnout from both sides will make the difference in Iowa.

I don't see a lot of democrats crawling over broken glass to vote for Oboma this time. Even democrats got hurt financially by his policies, and some of them still have a little religion left in them.

I DO see Republicans crawling over broken glass, though. I think turn out will win us this election, because Oboma is throwing out every freebie he can think of right now - to the point where it's getting absurd.
I mean, seriously, homo "marriage"? After all the states that voted said "Hell no!."
Half a billion dollars for homeless homos with AIDs? Really?
Free sex pills for everyone? Po-leeze!

[LS]

But . . . But . . .but the drive-by media says Zero in leading in national po
LS.

[concerned about politics]

I don’t, for one minute, believe any national poll that has Obama ahead—especially by 9 percentage points!

Polls are being oversampled by....you guessed it.....9% more democrats.

[MNGal]

If Iowa and Wisconsin flip to the (R), that would be “epic!” I could only hope that MN would follow suit, but I suppose I’m treading in fantasyland with that hope. :-)

[MNGal]

If Iowa and Wisconsin flip to the (R), that would be “epic!” I could only hope that MN would follow suit, but I suppose I’m treading in fantasyland with that hope. :-)

[ilgipper]

Fox always seems to go full-bore for the Democrat. They couldn’t say enough about Kerry in 2004, and even good thinking guys like Krauthammer had a temporary loss of sanity in the fall of 2008. I guess it is their own attempt to ‘look’ reasonable and try to win over the opposition...sort of like John Roberts recent sprint to the left in the USSC.

[HamiltonJay]

Polls are finally begining to reflect the reality on the ground.

That reality is simply this:

Obama cannot win.. the RUST BELT is DEAD to him.. He will lose IA, IN, WI, OH, and yes I do believe he will lose PA and MI... The only “Safe” states in the rust belt for Obama are IL and MN.

Obama will also lose NC,CO and FL, and it won’t be close.

Obama cannot get above 42-43% of the popular vote, and that his ABSOLUTE MAX, and to hit that he has to run a flawless campaign, and so far his campaign has been a joke. I really believe by election day Mr Obama will be retired with a vote tally at, and very possibly below that of Herbert Hoover in 1932.

The polls are all going to begin to reflect the realities as summer comes to an end, and that reality is, the voters are done with Obama, they’ve written him off by a huge margin and NOTHING, and I do mean NOTHING he says or does will make any difference. The ONLY direction Obama can go is down, and the lower he goes, the more desperate he’ll become the more outrageous he’ll act, and the public will further write him off causing him to go even further down... He’s in a death spiral and has been for months.

Only the most ardent Kool Aid drinkers will be holding on to the Obama nonsense by October. The real discussion will revolve around will the GOP get 60 senate seats by the, the Presidential race will be over.

For Obama to lose just 3.6% of voters have to move from support in 2008 to opposition in 2012... does anyone with a lick of intellect really believe after the last 4 years of failure after failure, unemployment where is the economy where it is, with fewer people WORKING today than the day he took office, that less than 3.6% of the electorate will not have changed its mind and vote against the guy? The very supposition is preposterous.

[HamiltonJay]

IA, WI and IN will all flip easily, PA and MI are the Rust Belt Battleground at this point and frankly they both can flip and I believe will... MN and IL are the only 2 safe states left in the rust belt for Obama. If Obama is going ot hold PA and MI, he’s going to have to poor some serious resources into them, at least PA.

He won’t have a complicite governor carrying his water here this time, and his policies of throwing the blue dogs under the bus is going to cost him big here.

[HamiltonJay]

IA, WI and IN will all flip easily, PA and MI are the Rust Belt Battleground at this point and frankly they both can flip and I believe will... MN and IL are the only 2 safe states left in the rust belt for Obama. If Obama is going ot hold PA and MI, he’s going to have to poor some serious resources into them, at least PA.

He won’t have a complicite governor carrying his water here this time, and his policies of throwing the blue dogs under the bus is going to cost him big here.

[Jake8898]

Why is Nv a lost cause? I would think Romney has some built in advantage there because of the number of Mormons.

[oust the louse]

“does anyone with a lick of intellect really believe after the last 4 years of failure after failure, unemployment where is the economy where it is, with fewer people WORKING today than the day he took office, that less than 3.6% of the electorate will not have changed its mind and vote against the guy? The very supposition is preposterous.”

Don’t over estimate the sheeple’s intelligence...it’s not Obama I fear, it’s the morons voting for him.

[jersey117]

Faux News is pulling for the Fraud...

I noticed. It's especially evident on Greta's show. I'm so done with her after the say she treated Allen West the other night. I decided to get most of my political coverage on the net. MSM is in the tank for obama. You'd think the libs in the media did have family to think about. They are so idealogically driven that they don't even care about the futures of the own children and grandchildren. The baby boomers have been carrying this country for decades. As we start dropping out of the work force exactly who is going to pay for all this free stuff? Our unemployed and underemployed kids? Businesses who can't even afford to keep their doors open? Liberalism truly is a mental disorder.

[Shadow44]

I think it’s because of the amount of transplants from California that are bringing their destructive politics with them, just like Colorado.

[HamiltonJay]

I’m sorry but the basic supposition that you can reside over the WORST ECONOMY IN MODERN US HISTORY and get re-elected is nonsense.

Obama, will be the ONLY president in the modern age to have fewer people employed at the end of his term than when he took office, that’s a pure and simple fact. 1 in 2 college grads can’t find a job. Real unemployment is in the teens.

There will alwas be kool aid drinkers and party loyalists who will pull the lever no matter what, but the idea that those equate to 50%+1 vote of the country is nonsensical.

Polls limited to swing states show Obama down 10 already. Others show thatn 20% of DEMOCRATS plan to vote for Romney... Obama is going to not only lose this election, he’s going to lose it big.

Now fight like its a 50-50 race, but don’t buy into the nonsense folks... 3.6% +1 vote is all that needs to change its mind for Obama to lose the popular vote. Now the EC is a bit more of an issue, but given the EC overweighs sparsely populated states, its impossible for Obama to win the EC and lose the Popular vote because his popular vote support is from large states, not sparcely populated ones.

3.6%+1 vote.. anyone thinking he won’t lose that much support between 08 and 12 isn’t thinking clearly at all.

[dnandell]

The Iowa State Fair is currently underway. The local NBC affiliate has a “Cast Your Kernel,” non-scientific poll going on. After two days of the fair, Romney is ahead 60%/40%.

[treetopsandroofs]

Yes, hard to believe these propagandists can go home and lie to their families and SLEEP at night, but once they sold their souls simply to keep their presumably high-paying jobs, they will say and do anything.

God help us all.

And forgive my useful moron hateful acquaintances who do nothing but repeat the latest anti-Mitt lies all day simply because they have nothing good to say about their hero the Fraud, who wants nothing less than to “fundamentally transform America” into a dumb dirtheap.

[Scott from the Left Coast]

NV is in no way, shape or form a lost cause. Obama and his wife are here every other week. It is way too early to tell yet, but I’d put Obama’s chances here at under 50%. It will be close here, but it’s going to be a toss up down to the wire.

[Bushbacker1]

Foxnews over sampled democrats by 9-12%. At least that’s what I thought I heard from Bret Baier on last night’s show.

[MrChips]

I like your optimism. And I, too, think Mitt will win Michigan . . . in the wake of the Delphi scandal and the souring of the GM bailout. But, I worry about Ohio. Obama has spent and will continue to spend a lot of money there. So will ROmney, of course. Still, I worry.

[unixfox]

With all of your predications you left one out.

The idiocy of those that still believe that Zer0 is their best hope for change.

[johnthebaptistmoore]

Sides? Both, Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are leftists! The U.S. is ruined, with, either, Barack Obama, or Mitt Romney as POTUS!

[vekzen]

Appreciate your optimism.

Guess Obama’s drive-by gangster campaign isn’t flying too well in Iowa.

[so_real]

Folks need to see the bigger picture that shows Obama doing everything in his power to throw this election to Romney using an unprecedented hard turn to the left in an election year as a tool. Obama wants to escape the WhiteHouse without impeachment papers or handcuffs, while iconifying himself as minority leadership, *and* handing his liberal agenda for safe keeping and nurturing to a man who is a kindred spirit in everything but political party.

And even with this hard leftist/socialist turn, Romney is such a poor candidate that he can't pick up the votes Obama is aiming his way. By poll numbers Romney is 2% better than the worst pres__ent in the history of the United States. And the GOP needs to figure out now, before the convention, that 2% isn't a big enough margin for people to change their tune. It is too much risk for zero gain.

[wolfman23601]

Iowa is one of the whitest states in the country. Obama should not be able to carry it this time.

[tcrlaf]

“IA, WI and IN will all flip easily....”

Was being told about an Internal Congress candidate poll last night, at a phone bank, that shows Romney winning Indiana by as much as 20+, right now.

Dems may hold only ONE congress seat in Indiana when this is done, and as few as ten seats in the State Senate, it could even be worse in the House, with R’s having a real chance to win even in Northwest Indiana..

If true, that’s REALLY saying something about what is coming.

[devolve]

-

I have not checked the internals on the FOX Poll or the Rasmussen Poll

I do see Rasmussen polled LIKELY VOTERS :
46%-Romney
44%-Obama
6%-Undecided (most will go for Challenger)
5%-Other Candidate (disregard)

I would imagine FOX polled REGISTERED VOTERS (but I could be wrong)

FOX Poll:
49%-Obama
40%-Romney

In 2004 when the LA Times oversampled democrats by 16% I added half (8%) to GW Bush and deducted half (8%) from Kerry - My quick and dirty adjustment worked out pretty well -

FOX Poll (readjusted by 4.5% +&-) :
49%-Obama = 44.5%
40%-Romney = 44.5%

now the FOX poll is within the 3% margin of error most pollsters admit too

Recall that on voting day the democrats screamed that Kerry was ahead in Exit Polls

That was horseshirt - as people lie - especially the media

-

I would imagine most polls are done when actual working people (non-minority likely voters) (taxpaying honkies) are at work or actually out doing something besides watching a 60” HDTV with a case of cold beer

Another thing to consider is that leftie pollsters call urban residents (huge minority and democrat ghettos - for example NYC is 4 to 1 democrat to Republican registration) - but on voting day NYC does not vote 4 to 1 democrat for President (yes it may be 2 to 1 but not 4 to 1)

No special tricks or methods here - But if you do not correct for internals of oversampling of democrats - and other bullshirt - such as leftie pollsters now adding numbers for democrats with cellphones (which cannot be called by pollsters) - you are going to get the numbers and results that Obama wants to see in media “push-polls”

Keep in mind that I have no idea what I am doing - I am just going by my previous experience in 2000 and in 2004

Zogby’s polls? His brother works for CAIR - enough said on Zogby

Do not ever forget that the media bought the Obama/HLS bs of “domestic terrorism” for the recent Sikh shootings

But the insane Fort Hood massacre by a crazy Muslim (who was on Obama’s “Transition Team”) was only “Workplace Violent Act”

-

[RedMDer]

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[HamiltonJay]

Again, to you and those who keep pulling up this nugget, tell me, who do you know who is arguing this point who isn’t a died in the wool democratic voter?

How many swing voters are you hearing this nonsense from? I am telling you that where I am, I am having a hard tiem finding even a single swing voter I know, even those who I know voted for him last time that have any intent on voting for him again. In fact I am finding life long democrats who are telling me they will never vote for hime.

There is no doubt the party loyal will vote for him no matter what, but the idea that 3.6% of the voting public will not change their minds since last election is silly on its face.

[conservativebabe]

I think it’s actually much higher than that in reality.

[HamiltonJay]

I hadn’t seen those figured, but its been obvious that Indiana isn’t even going to be close.

IN, IA, OH and WI are certain to go for Romney as far as I can tell, Obama has spit in the face of the blue dogs for 4 years, and like it or not, you can’t win those states without the blue dog vote, they turn on you you are done, (MI and PA as well but they have large cities that counter the effect) however I do believe that PA and MI will go red, if Obama holds them it will only be by the SLIMMEST of margins and he will have to dump a TON of money into them.

I fully expect what you are seeing in IN, to happen in OH, IA and to a lesser extent WI.. not to the extreme of IN, but they will follow the same general pattern.

Obama is done in the rust belt, IL and MN are the only places he will find quarter.. I truly expect PA and MI to flip as well.

[VA40]

Methodology The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The poll was conducted by telephone with live interviewers August 5-7, 2012, among a random national base sample of 930 registered voters, including additional interviews (an oversample) of 115 randomly selected Hispanics. Landline and cell phone telephone numbers were randomly selected for inclusion in the survey using a probability proportionate to size method, which means that phone numbers for each state are proportional to the number of voters in each state. The additional interviews of Hispanic respondents were done to allow analysis of the subgroup, and are weighted so Hispanics are not over-represented in the overall national sample. The total 170 of Hispanics is made up of 55 interviews done as part of the base national sample and 115 oversample interviews from a list of Hispanic voters developed from previously conducted national random digit dial (RDD) surveys. Oversample interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ± 3 percentage points. LV = likely voters Results from Fox News polls before February 2011 were conducted by Opinion Dynamics Corp.

Does anyone understand why they oversampled Hispanics? Also, when they flashed this on the TV this morning I'm certain it said +/- 8%. This is one screwed up poll if you ask me.

[plain talk]

I hope you are right. The wild card involves the impact of at least two factors
- lies/ propaganda - many voters don’t operate in a rational analysis zone. They can be fooled and bought
- cheating - illegals, dead vote and tricks

[uncbob]

Hope you are right
I notice you were here since 99
Did you make predictions in 2000-2004-2006-2008-2010 and if so what is your batting average

[CommieCutter]

That’s what I thought. NV is in terrible shape. Why would they want Odumbo back?

[Leep]

Wow,Romney has a 2% lead. Should be 20% but a win is a win..I suppose.
Go less offensive liberal/Rinos!

[emotionalcripple]

No way Northwest Indiana is going to switch to a Republican Congressman! Not a chance! Zero! Visclosky(D), 1st District, will be there forever. The Dems up here pay for a ridiculous Republican that has no chance to win. The demographics are also again since Gary is in the 1st. Think Detroit. No chance at all! Sorry.

[Road Glide]

“I’m sorry but the basic supposition that you can reside over the WORST ECONOMY IN MODERN US HISTORY and get re-elected is nonsense.”

FDR did.

And got re-elected, not once, not twice, but THREE times!

I admire your optimism, but Obama has “grown food stamps and welfare” so much, that many of “his people” (and I don’t just mean the black ones) no longer care about unemployment. Instead, they care about entitlements.

The election will be much closer than you predict...

[Roses0508]

MIL lives with us. Has always voted Dem. This AM she allowed as how she couldn’t vote for Obama again. She is not too plused about voting for Romney either - the Mormanism thing. Later she decided she’d ask for an absentee ballot. I’ve lived with her 10 years. That’s her out. She won’t go to the polls and she’ll “forget” to send in the absentee ballot.

I’m good with that.

[1035rep]

“But . . . But . . .but the drive-by media says Zero in leading ...”

The drive-by media is hoping for riots in the streets when the Kenyan is slaughtered at the polls. Libtard heads are about to explode.

I wonder how many will promise to leave the country this time.

[jennings2004]

But, but, you forget...he’s going to nationalize all industry so we can be one big happy offspring of that great Government Motors creation..../s

[jennings2004]

Time for another “bus tour!” :))

[jennings2004]

To support their great Majority Leader, Senator Harry Reid..../s

[musicman]

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