Skip to comments.Gallup: More 2008 Obama voters plan to switch sides than 2008 McCain voters
Posted on 08/07/2012 7:40:12 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Yes, it's buyer's remorse and it will probably be one of the deciding factors in the race this year.
Eighty-six percent of voters who say they voted for Barack Obama in 2008 are backing Obama again this year, a smaller proportion than 92% of 2008 John McCain voters who are supporting 2012 Republican candidate Mitt Romney. Nine percent of 2008 Obama voters have switched to supporting Romney this year, while 5% of McCain voters have switched to Obama.
The results are based on July 23-29 Gallup Daily tracking with more than 2,000 registered voters who reported voting in the 2008 election. Of these, 48% said they voted for Obama and 42% McCain, with the remaining 10% saying they voted for another candidate or not disclosing their vote choice. However, the six-percentage-point advantage in reported voting for Obama is similar to the actual seven-point edge he had over McCain in the final 2008 returns, 53% to 46%.
Obama and Romney have been tightly matched so far this year, with the two generally tied or one having a slim one- or two-point advantage among registered voters in Gallup Daily tracking.
Thus, it follows that fewer voters are supporting Obama this year than in 2008. But the race remains close because Obama's margin in 2008 was large enough that he could still be tied or in the lead this year if his support is a few percentage points lower.
The data do underscore the high degree of party loyalty in voting across the last two elections. All told, 79% of registered voters are supporting the same party's candidate in 2012 as in 2008. That figure understates the true degree of party loyalty because the loyalty of the substantial minority of voters who did not report their 2008 vote choice cannot be computed.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
Good news...AND...what this poll doesn’t state is the enthusiasm gap...meaning Obama should also see lower turnout among those who don’t want to vote republican, but refuse to vote for Zero....
This is shocking. Liberals have told us that Republicans are evil, because of the war on women, war on (fill in the blank), failure to celebrate diversity, tax cuts for the wealthy, and any number of other crimes.
To the liberals, any differences on policy positions is tantamount to hatred and cruelty and malice.
Now, considering too that Obama is so wonderful, how can he fix something in four years which took eight years of Bush to mess up, etc. how could anyone support Romney? These stats can’t be right, per the liberals. How could Obama voters from 2008 abandon him?????
“....5% of McCain voters have switched to Obama...”
I call BS on this.
Nobody can name a single demographic that Obama will see increased support from in 2012.
Among our acquaintances, those we suspect of voting for BO in ‘08 are as quiet as stones. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the number of Democrat voters is down considerably this election.
“You didn’t build that”
At this point in history, anyone who casts a vote for Obama can only be considered an irreversible Bonehead.
There are only two groups who fall into this category: those who votes strictly on the basis of race and those who are so busy sucking away at the government teat that they are lost to reason and even the slightest variety of patriotism.
RE: At this point in history, anyone who casts a vote for Obama can only be considered an irreversible Bonehead.
Then shouldn’t we be concerned that close to half of Americans fit that description?
so... he got 53%, but only 48% admit voting for him? add THAT to the 9% defectors.
We've been getting our ears burnt off.
It's amazing to hear Black and Jewish acquaintances cursing BO to the skies!
“Then shouldnt we be concerned that close to half of Americans fit that description?”
On the other hand, it may cast some light on the situation when we pause to consider that as many people on the planet have IQs of under one hundred as as have IQs over one hundred; a sobering thought.
At this point in history, anyone who casts a vote for Obama can only be considered an irreversible Bonehead.”
I’m pretty sure that that comments is definitely...RACIST.
On a serious note...I think looking at all of the available data, this election, as of today...is very close and if votes were cast today, it would in fact come down to 3 or 4 states.
And obama might well win.
Hopefully he will have a bad September/October.
RE: pause to consider that as many people on the planet have IQs of under one hundred as as have IQs over one hundred; a sobering thought.
I hasten to remind you that Obama gets a lot of his support from COLLEGE STUDENTS and COLLEGE PROFESSORS, many from Ivy League schools.
Just goes to show that High IQ and WISDOM are not necessarily correlated.
RE: it would in fact come down to 3 or 4 states.
Ohio and Florida are the two big swings states. What are the other two on your mind?
“Im pretty sure that that comments is definitely...RACIST.”
No, no - not at all. I would never even suggest that Black people, or any other racial or ethnic group, vote en bloc.
On the other hand, if the shoes fits...
Excellent point; however, I would suggest that most of those you cite are voting strictly on the basis of race, rather than of platform.
Indeed, Obama has no platform that can be detected by even painstaking examination.
And no, “Destroying the United States of America” is not a platform.
Our sons are 22 and 24, both working while in college to “help out the family”. The younger will graduate in Dec. with a Bachelor’s degree. The older will graduate in Dec. with a Master’s degree... They and their friends are very adamant that they WILL NOT VOTE in the general election as they are protesting both candidates! My husband and I have attempted - to no avail, it seems - to convince them they have a duty to vote even if for “the lesser of two evils”. (Other than my two votes for Ronald Reagan, I have only had that same option myself.)
The Left is comprised of cults none of which is loved to any degree by any sizable portion of the population. Clinton restrained their excesses, Obama has unleashed them.
Neither are high IQ and ivy league schools.
Maybe people will start doing their research before they vote for someone.
86 vs 92%
DNCp liars one and all...
I’ve already seen enough to know that far more than 14% of Obama’s base has scurried back under their rocks.
I was commenting to my wife the other day, we were out and noticing that there were no 2012 Obama stickers on any cars.
You could see and old 2008 sticker here and there, but they were VERY few and far between. We didn’t see a single one Obama 2012 sticker.
This guy is going down. Way, way, way down...
Don’t pay attention to these polls. They are misinformation on a scale we’ve seldom if ever seen.
RE: I was commenting to my wife the other day, we were out and noticing that there were no 2012 Obama stickers on any cars.
Just curious, which great state of the USA do you live in?
If it’s a relatively conservative state, I would not be surprised to see what you just observed.
If it is a blue or purple state, then, Obama should be very worried.
I've seen a few cars around here with Obama '12 stickers on them. They're usually Priuses, and the owners probably live in the North End of Boise (liberalville).
99% of this 5% were Obama voters and lied to make things look better for them / him.
1% were confused and didn't understand the questions.
I honestly don't think that there is much of an enthusiasm gap in the Presidential race this year. It is really hard to get enthusiastic about voting for Romney.
I am very enthusiastic about voting for Ted Cruz for Senate. Hopefully there will be enough conservatives running in down ballot races in most states to get conservative voters to the polls.
Lots of Hillary Clinton supporters voted for McCain because they were still pissed off that Hillary did not get the Democrat nomination. Most of those will either vote for Obama this time or not vote.
RE: Southern California...
Unfortunately, your state is going to vote for Obama (count on it ). The folks in San Francisco, Los Angeles and Sacramento are just too numerous for the rest of the state to overcome.
When California had the chance to get rid of the Dems in 2010, guess what they did... VOTE BARBARA BOXER and Governor Moonbeam back in.
"I call BS on this."
Really? Where's your substantiated proof it's "BS"?
"The results are based on July 23-29 Gallup Daily tracking with more than 2,000 registered voters who reported voting in the 2008 election. Of these, 48% said they voted for Obama and 42% McCain, with the remaining 10% saying they voted for another candidate or not disclosing their vote choice. However, the six-percentage-point advantage in reported voting for Obama is similar to the actual seven-point edge he had over McCain in the final 2008 returns, 53% to 46%.
Nonwhites other than blacks, a group composed largely of Hispanics and Asians, are among the subgroups of 2008 Obama or McCain voters most likely to switch presidential preferences or be undecided this year. Twenty-one percent of this group of voters have a different preference now than in 2008, about double the national average of 11%. Other groups showing an above-average shift in vote choice between 2008 and 2012 are political independents (18%), political moderates (16%), Eastern residents (15%), those with a high school education or less (15%), and unmarried men (15%)."
This group is also known to sit on their hands most of the time, including election day...
Perhaps we shall receive more detailed polling data later.
I think Romney also needs to win Nevada, Colorado and North Carolina. Lots of Democrats statewide in each of those states, and lots of “educated” whites that voted for him last time. These states make me nervous and Romney has to win them all.
Romney doesn’t have a lot of margin of error. Then again, obama is definitely on the defensive.
But I am personally fearful that he can win enough of these small, sometimes left-leaning states to hang on.
This group is also known to sit on their hands most of the time, including election day... “
Fortunately (haven’t you heard?), Uncle Sam is making it easy for these folks. All obama voters are eligible to vote on ANY of the following days: Wednesday, November 7 through Saturday, November 10. This is sort of a special perc that they get. They aren’t limited to voting on just one day.
Spread the word.
I call BS on this.
Why call B.S.? There are a bunch of people on this site that are, in effect, going to vote for Obama.
I honestly don’t think that there is much of an enthusiasm gap in the Presidential race this year. It is really hard to get enthusiastic about voting for Romney.
You might be right, but I think Romney will benefit from more enthusiasm because some think he is better than McCain (you can’t get worse), Obama is not the once loved blank slate he was in 2008, and finally his financial background plays perfectly for the moment.
For the record, I still think Obama will win, but there is definitely a fighting chance to get him out. We had no chance in 2008.
I’m trying to think of how five percent of McCain voters would switch over in 2012....to President Obama. Unless there was drugs, booze, or mental incompetency involved...there’s not much else you can figure.
This is when you do a poll in the late afternoon, when Grandma has sipped up the third Margarita and the phone rings. “Poll Pete” is asking stupid questions and confuses Grandma...and she admits she would vote for that Obama guy...but she’s mostly intoxicated at the moment.
I think it's BS as well, but the poll numbers assume every person who "switches from McCain" is now supporting Obama, and vice versa. Apparently they're assuming EVERY person who switches is going from one major party to another.
I was a McCain voter in 2008, and I may not vote Republican in 2012. But there's no way in hell I'd vote for Obama. Since I live in Illinois and my vote doesn't matter anyway, I'm looking for a reason to vote GOP. In 2008, the reason was Sarah Palin. If it's a ticket like Romney-Rice, there's a good chance I'll end up voting for Virgil Goode.
I can see 5% of McCain voters switching to another candidate. I can't see 5% of them switching to Obama though. If you didn't like Obama when it was hip and cool to support him and the mainstream media made him out to be a deity, it makes no logical sense that you're on his side now that he's less popular than dog meat.
I’m sure McCain had some hardcore RINO fans that usually don’t like GOPers but they should be fine with Romney.
this would be an interesting study in a single state poll, like OH.
poll the McCain voters from ‘08, break em down into Mitt, Obama, someone else, staying home, dead, moved. Difficult project.
so your results are something like
Romney should put an effort into the nonvoters from 08.
4% of the population is now dead and 4% of the pop is new voters who could not vote in 08. Maybe more, if you count new illegals.
do you realize that some of McCain voters had
very favorable for McCain and
favorable toward Obama ... and they chose McCain, not out of dislike for Obama. ?? They ain’t conservatives.
Now they still like Obama and they dislike Romney.
There are lots of odd folks in the electorate. Dems in FLA who hated Gore and voted for Nader. Dems bark that Nader cost Gore the election, but these folks would not have voted Gore. And many of the Buchanan voters in FLA would not have voted for Bush. Many 3rd party voters would become undervotes without the 3rd party candidate. Leave it blank. Yes, people leave the Prez race blank and vote for the local races.
Your post reminded me of a recent thread.
It seems that O-boy and his parasitic Fluke had their little get-together yesterday. In the liberal enclave of Denver, the 'enthusiastic' crowd was estimated by the fire dept to be........
about 4,000 people.
So, yeah, I think O-boy should be very worried.
Nah, not buying it. I haven't met a single person who "still likes Obama" after four years, and I've talked to people on all ends of the political spectrum. Even people that are solid liberal, hard D's from Chicago aren't fans of Obama anymore.
There's no doubt they're going to vote for him, and they publically say so, but the reason is because they hate Republicans and want to stop the "homophobic, racist, sexist, rich corporate warmongers" from getting in. They're not voting D because they're happy with O's record. Even they realize his campaign promises in 2008 were a load of cr@p and he sold them down the river.
I need a new supervisor. I lost my self-starter status yesterday. Perhaps I should be at Greenberg CT-5 hdqtrs every day for the hot primary 5 days from now.
But it is 30-minute ride. And nobody else is there. Why should I do politics when the rest of the teaparty crowd & Christian-right crowd is boycotting politics? Explain it.
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