Surprise!
Posted on 08/03/2012 5:36:33 AM PDT by Perdogg
The U.S. economy closed out an otherwise weak second quarter by creating more jobs than expected, with 163,000 new positions added, but the unemployment rate fell to 8.3 percent. June saw 80,000 new jobs.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...
"Everything that's supposed to be up is down!"
Can someone please tell me how adding 163,000 jobs is seen as “positive”?
It takes 250,000 just to break even.
AND, they’re reporting the tick up to 8.3% from 8.2%, as “essentially unchanged”!!!!
Is THAT how it would have been reported under a Republican administration?
The report showed that the actual amount of Americans working dropped by 195,000, with the net job gain resulting primarily from seasonal adjustments. The birth-death model, which approximates net job growth from newly added or closed businesses, added 52,000 to the total.
so basically Seasonal Adjustments and Birth-Death Adjustments is everything. The raw numbers are 195k fewer workers.
The problem for Obama is going to come next month when companies really freeze hiring due to Obamacare.
BLS could only hide the weekly manipulations for so long.
Cricket chirps from the WH, so far. Obama is supposed to speak later in the morning.
The markets reacted positively because with a continuing weak economy the hopes for Fed action on QE3 rise. Bad news is good news...
Seasonal And Birth Death Adjustments Add 429,000 Statistical “Jobs”
“...the BLS “added” 377K jobs for seasonal purposes. This was the largest seasonal addition in the past decade for a July NFP print in the past decade, possibly ever...the Birth Death adjustment, which adds to the NSA Print to get to the final number, was +52k. How does this compare to July 2011? It is about 1000% higher...In other words, of the 163,000 jobs “added”, 429,000 was based on purely statistical fudging.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/seasonal-and-birth-death-adjustments-add-429000-statistical-jobs
That's more like it.
In my book a 20% change isn’t a “revision” as these jokers call it... Being off by 20% means you didn’t have a clue. Or you just made up guesses that fit with the message you wanted to get out there, then later had to admit something closer to the truth.
I thought it was 8.2% before. I must have missed the unheralded re adjustment to 8.4%
In related news the chocolate ration was increased to 25 grams per week.
Teachers are typically paid 12 months out of the year even though they work 10 so no they aren’t included. Even if they were that would be considered “seasonal” and would be adjsted for in the statistics.
After the last several months I don’t trust any initial reports on unemployment numbers.
How many times have the initial numbers be revised downwards in the last six months?
I will wait a week or three to see what the actual numbers are instead of responding to the initial, higher numbers, designed to make things to look better for the Emperor.
Surprise!
It is curious that the UE numbers were in the 385k range a few weeks ago and DROPPED to the 365k range more recently.
Yet, the UE percent INCREASED.
[Something smells, and it isn’t dead fish.]
I believe you need 400k per month just to cover new entrants.
Anything less then 250,000 newly created jobs per month is a lousy number. Obama continues to destroy the USA economy!!! Please also note the June created jobs number was downgraded substantially. Our economy is in terrible shape and getting worse. With gasoline prices on a fast track rise, once again, the created jobs numbers for Augiust, September, October, Novenber will get will only get worse progressively.
Obama has succeeeded well above his wildest dreams in his determined quest to destroy the USA eonomy. Wake up, America. Time is short. Obama and the entire Democrat Party must be defeated, politically, come November 6, 2012.
We got the pre-spun job quantity data already, where we learned that nearly 3 times the headline print was due to seasonal and B/D adjustments and is thus nothing but noise. Now we get the quality. As can be seen below, courtesy of Table A9 from the Household Survey, in July the number of part-time jobs added was 31K, bringing the total to 27,925, just shy of the all time record of 28,038. Full time jobs? Down 228,000 to 114,345, lower than the February full-time jobs print of 114,408. Once again, more and more Americans are relinquishing any and all benefits associated with Full Time Jobs benefits, and instead are agreeing on a job. Any job. Even if it means working just 1 hour a week. For the BLS it doesn't matter - 1 hour of work a week still qualifies you as a Part-Time worker.
Full time and part-time jobs summary:
Great find, thanks for posting the ZeroHedge analysis. Wow, there is some serious deception occurring in an attempt to help Obama and the Democrats.
Bingo. The market doesn’t react to anything anymore except the machinations of the Fed. Will they ease or won’t they.
That’s all traders look at anymore. Stock trading volumes are way down and are dominated by frontrunning HFT computers trying to anticipate what the Fed will do next. It’s a huge joke. Except the joke is on us.
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