Are the Polls Skewed Toward Obama?

WEEKLY STANDARD ^ | July 20, 2012 | Jay Cost

[jmaroneps37]

This information was very helpful LAST WEEK when it was put together by Jim Geraghty at National Review on line. This rip off without attribution is shameful.

[Dustoff45]

while this will be “close” in terms of popular vote

I expect the truth is the Vote against Obama crowd is huge and can be depended on, with their passion, to get out and vote.

The Vote for Obama crowd will probably continue to say they want to vote for him, but on that first Tuesday in November, will find something else to do that day. Their passion is very low.

[TomEwall]

I find it interesting that how terrible these state polls are does not get commented on more. One can understand the MSM not commenting, but even sites which are either neutral or leaning right don’t often do so.

E.g., the RCP state polls show the election basically where it was in 2008, except for Romney flipping NC and IN. This can’t possibly be right, just by looking at the job approval numbers. Obama is running behind Bush in 2004, and Bush only won by Ohio. The state polls should basically be showing Romney ahead in the states which Bush won, excepting possibly NV, CO and NM, which have trended Dem, as Romney is about where Bush was in 2004. But they seem to be skewed, on the average, by about 5 percent.

Interestingly, even the Rasmussen state polls are showing Obama doing better on a state by state basis than the national polls would show. Perhaps newer polls by Rasmussen will show something different.

Besides Rasmussen, the Battleground polls are good, and Mason-Dixon. Some of the others too, sometimes, depending on the internals. To have internals with 7% more Democrats is ridiculous.