The Evidence Of A Coming Recession Is Overwhelming

Business Insider ^ | 07/20/2012 | Comstock Partners, New York Based Hedge fund

[SeekAndFind]

We first noticed the first signs that the economy was beginning to soften about three months ago. Now the evidence of a slowdown has become so overwhelming that it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that we are headed for a recession. We cite the following as evidence.

Retail sales (both total and non-auto) have dropped for three consecutive months. This has happened only five times since 1967----four times in 2008, and one now. Vehicle sales have tapered off with May and June being the two weakest months of the year. Consumer confidence for both the Conference Board index and the University of Michigan Survey are at their lowest levels of 2012.

On the labor front, June payroll numbers were weak once again and averaged only 75,000 in the second quarter. The latest weekly new claims for unemployment insurance jumped back up to 386,000 and the last two months have been well above the numbers seen earlier in the year.

The ISM manufacturing index for June fell 3.8 points to 49.7, its first sub-50 reading in the economic recovery. The ISM non-manufacturing index for June dropped to its lowest level since January 2010. Most recently the Philadelphia Fed Survey for July was negative (below zero) for the third consecutive month.

The small business confidence index declined in June to its lowest level since October and has now dropped in three of the last four months. Plans for capital spending and new hiring have dropped sharply.

Despite all of the talk about a housing bottom, June existing home sales fell 5.4% to its lowest level since the fall of last year. In addition mortgage applications for home purchases have been range-bound since October. Core factory orders, while volatile on a month-to-month basis, have declined 2.6% since year-end,

[dfwgator]

Coming?

Where has this guy been?

[Ophiucus]

Agreed. I never saw evidence that the last one stopped.

[pallis]

It’s more like unfounded optimism faltered and failed before it got going. A few trillion dollars down the road, hope and change met reality.

[whitedog57]

ya think?

Approaching the Zero Bound: Euro Dives, Spainish Sov Yield Rises, 10 Year Treasury Yield Declines (Mortgage Rates to Follow)

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/07/20/approaching-the-zero-bound-euro-dives-igs-yield-rise-10-year-treasury-yield-declines-mortgage-rates-to-follow/

[Parmy]

Henry Waxman says we are in a depression.

[yldstrk]

oh just talk to any Democrat, the recession ended.

[Disambiguator]

Henry Waxman says we are in a depression.

Waxman said that? He slipped up and told the truth. That being said, a recession would be an improvement.

[Fully Awake DAV]

There never was any “economic recovery”. The gub fudges the numbers, since energy and food are not factored into inflationary numbers and with the price of homes dropping, they effectively can say “the economy is doing great”.
Anyone who lives on less than 30K a year (hand raised), knows first hand how bad the economy is sucking the life out of low income folks.

[Parmy]

Now that we are in this mess, I have been doing a little digging. I have found out that in the middle of the ‘Great Depression’, there was a recession brought about by more socialist programs instituted by Roosevelt.