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Top 10 most likely GOP Senate pick-ups
humanevents.com ^

Posted on 07/09/2012 11:54:58 AM PDT by tsowellfan

Since the GOP is likely to lose Maine (Olympia Snowe’s seat) and have competitive races to defend seats in Massachusetts (Scott Brown) and Nevada (Dean Heller), they better hope to pickup five or six Democratic seats. Here are 10 seats currently held by the opposition that Republicans can win...

(Excerpt) Read more at humanevents.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Connecticut; US: Florida; US: Michigan; US: Missouri; US: Montana; US: Nebraska; US: New Mexico; US: North Dakota; US: Virginia; US: Wisconsin
KEYWORDS: 112th; election2012; georgeallen2012; senate; senate2012; va2012
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To: tsowellfan

If Romney wins all of these states , then why shouldn’t we pick up these senate seats? Reagan did it much of this in 980 against many incumbents.
Whose responsibility is it to convince voters that vote splitting is a moron move? (Yes i self-censored)


41 posted on 07/09/2012 2:15:01 PM PDT by SMGFan
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To: pistolpackinpapa
What’s your call on the VA race, HokieMom? Is George Allen gonna win it?

Yes, because of our sweep of of the three statewide races after Obama was elected and we picked up so many seats that we regained the tie in the state senate and added to our majority in the house. We've been scandal-free and Cuccinelli and McDonnell have been strong conservative standard bearers and poll high as relates to job approval.

Romney takes Virginia and has long coattails. George Allen just has to tame his inner frat-boy and keep the joking to himself. I'm sure he's being stalked again in hopes of another media-induced feeding frenzy which is the only thing that can sink him.

42 posted on 07/09/2012 2:32:47 PM PDT by HokieMom (Pacepa : Can the U.S. afford a president who can't recognize anti-Americanism?)
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To: tsowellfan

“POLITICO Breaking News


The House Ethics Committee announced that it will formally investigate Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-Nev.) to look into allegations that she improperly steered federal funds to a business owned by her husband. Rep. Michael Conaway (R-Texas) and Rep. Donna Edwards (D-Md.) will be the top lawmakers on the investigative subcommittee probing Berkley. The announcement of the investigation is a major blow to Berkley’s Senate campaign, where she’s locked in a tough race against incumbent Sen. Dean Heller (R-Nev.).”

Nevada suddenly looks much better.


43 posted on 07/09/2012 2:41:08 PM PDT by Gulf War One
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To: firebrand; Clintonfatigued; Impy; AuH2ORepublican; fieldmarshaldj; no dems; Kaslin; ...
Below is a list of competitive or potentially competitive Senate races. With input from several FR political experts, I have ranked the list from most to least likely GOP win. The rankings will change as the election season progresses.

Note the differentiation between the seats that represent GOP Holds and those that represent opportunities for Gains. Democrats currently control 53 seats in the Senate (including two independents who caucus with the Democrats), Republicans 47. If Republicans hold all the seats they have currently, they will need to gain four more seats to have a majority.

We will likely lose ME, so we'll need five gains for a majority. As of 7/7/12, the best opportunities for those gains are in the states of NE, MO, WI, ND, and MT.

Where primaries have not been held, I have listed a few GOP frontrunners, but these are only hypothetical and there can be a surprise as there was in NE where Tea Party favorite Deb Fischer beat the frontrunner. If you have input on frontrunners for pre-primary states, chime in.

Links to GOP primary winners' websites are included so you can learn more about the candidates and donate, if you feel so inclined.

If you're interested in polling on Senate races, check out Real Clear Politics Senate Polls.

It's widely thought that the GOP will keep the House, so besides the battle for the White House, the next focus has to be the Senate.

 

7/7/12 - Race for the U.S. Senate Ranked Roughly From Most to Least Likely GOP Win

State

Republican Candidate Democrat/IND Candidate Hold/Gain
NE* Debra Fischer Bob Kerrey GAIN
IN* Richard MourdocK Joe Donnelly HOLD
AZ* Primary 8/28/12 (Jeff Flake#)   HOLD
MO Primary 8/7/12 (Sarah Steelman#) Claire McCaskill+ GAIN
NV Dean Heller+ Shelley Berkley HOLD
WI* Primary 8/14/12 (Tommy Thompson#)   GAIN
ND* Rick Berg Heidi Heitcamp GAIN
MT Denny Rehberg Jon Tester* GAIN
MA Scott Brown+ Elizabeth Warren HOLD
VA* George Allen Tim Kaine GAIN
OH Josh Mandel Sherrod Brown+ GAIN
FL Primary 8/14/12 (Connie Mack#) Bill Nelson+ GAIN
MI Primary 8/7/12 Debbie Stabenow+ GAIN
NM* Heather Wilson Martin Heinrich GAIN
NJ Joe Kyrillos Bob Menendez+ GAIN
PA Tom Smith Bob Casey+ GAIN
WV John Raese Joe Manchin+ GAIN
HI* Primary 8/11/12 (Linda Lingle#)   GAIN
CT* Primary 8/14/12   GAIN
WA Primary 8/7/12 Maria Cantwell+ GAIN
ME* Charles Summers Angus King (Ind.) HOLD
*Open Seat      +Incumbent      #GOP Frontrunner  

 

44 posted on 07/09/2012 4:32:28 PM PDT by randita
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To: pistolpackinpapa

Manchin scored an 85% liberal rating in 2011. Why would we want an ultraliberal RINO joining the Senate caucus ?


45 posted on 07/09/2012 4:54:16 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (If you like lying Socialist dirtbags, you'll love Slick Willard)
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To: pistolpackinpapa

Rutt Rohhh....DNC plans in NV not looking good.

The House Ethics Committee announced Monday that it will formally investigate Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-Nev.) over allegations she violated House rules by using her position in Congress to benefit her husband’s medical practice.

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/236819-ethics-panel-to-investigate-rep-berkley-


46 posted on 07/09/2012 6:58:36 PM PDT by ak267
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To: SueRae

I will do whatever I can to help get the vote out for Tom.
____________________________________________________________

BLESS YOU!!!


47 posted on 07/09/2012 9:30:48 PM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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To: randita; SMGFan; firebrand; Clintonfatigued; AuH2ORepublican; fieldmarshaldj; GOPsterinMA

Oops posted this in the wrong thread, the chart kinda overlapped into the next post on my ping list

My take

NE
AZ
IN
MO
WI (with Tommy T)
ND
NV (maybe should be higher now eh :) )
MT
WI (with a different Republican than Tommy T)
MA
VA
OH
(I think we’ll win the above races, that would make 53)
FL
NM
MI
NJ
ME (it looks bad in polling but I think it’s a better chance than the below)
PA
HI
CT
WV (wish it was much higher)
WA


48 posted on 07/09/2012 9:54:34 PM PDT by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: MissMagnolia

One of the fave GOP pick-up lines: “You don’t sweat much for a fat gal.”


49 posted on 07/09/2012 10:03:57 PM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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To: HokieMom

Thanks for the encouraging word. We don’t get too many of them around here these days.


50 posted on 07/09/2012 10:06:55 PM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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To: Gulf War One

Wow! Looks like Heller may be safe in NV and we hold that seat. Great news!


51 posted on 07/09/2012 10:09:37 PM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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To: randita; All

Where, on your chart, is the line drawn where the “Most Likely” “pick-up and holds” ends and the “Less Likely” begins. I’m thinking between Florida and Michigan. Florida and above, I think we have a good chance of taking or holding. Michigan on down.... not so hopeful. Michigan reelected Jenny Granholm Governor when that State was ranked 49th Economically, just above Mississippi. And the dolts reelected her.


52 posted on 07/09/2012 11:31:28 PM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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To: pistolpackinpapa

Good question. My personal opinion is that NE through MA would fit in the Most Likely, VA through NM would be Toss Ups at this point, and NJ through ME would be early Christmas gifts.

It’s hard to analyze races where the candidates haven’t even been decided yet. By late August, when all candidates are known, we may start to see how things are trending.

It’s early to get a handle on the mood of the electorate. If they’re as ticked off as they were in 2010 - and that may well be the case with Obamacare and the sour economy, we might see trends favoring the GOP.


53 posted on 07/10/2012 8:45:37 AM PDT by randita
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To: Vigilanteman

I agree, Casey is an empty suit.


54 posted on 07/11/2012 6:00:25 AM PDT by CPT Clay (Pick up your weapon and follow me.)
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To: pistolpackinpapa

You’d have to be from WV to understand. I think most West Virginians have been Democrats so long, it’s inherited. They still won’t vote in mass for a Kerry, Gore or Obozo. Any politician that has a whiff of anti-gun sentiment is dead to this state. Same with abortion although not as intense.

What you’re really looking at here is Republicans masquerading as Democrats. They still love the patronage and cronyism. At first glance a Chicago pol would love this place until they figured out even the little old ladies are packing heat.


55 posted on 07/11/2012 9:26:51 AM PDT by meatloaf (Support Senate S 1863 & House Bill 1380 to eliminate oil slavery.)
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