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Romney 2012: Itís the End of the GOP as We Know It (megabarf alert!)
In These Times ^ | July 3, 2012 | Theo Anderson

Posted on 07/08/2012 4:33:50 PM PDT by neverdem

Women and Latinos decisively reject the party, but that isn’t the worst of Republicans’ problems.

In a speech to a group of Republicans last summer, Karl Rove called Colorado “ground zero” in the 2012 presidential election and said that “as goes Colorado, so goes the nation.”

If Rove was right about Colorado, Mitt Romney is in deep trouble. A poll taken last month showed President Obama with a seven-point lead in the state. That was down from a 13-point lead in April, primarily because Mitt Romney had gained some traction among unaffiliated voters. But Obama led among Latinos by 27 points. Among women, he led by 14 points.

The GOP’s problems among those two voting blocs are well known. Republicans have performed poorly among women for some time. John Kerry beat George W. Bush by seven points among female voters in the 2004 election, and Obama had a 13-point advantage among women in 2008. The firestorm during the GOP primary season over reproductive rights did nothing to help the Republican brand, and if the preferences of Colorado voters are any indication, another double-digit victory for Obama among women is likely.

The GOP is in even bigger trouble among Latinos. A recent USA Today/Gallup poll showed that they favor Obama by a devastating 41 points (66 percent versus 25 percent), and there is little chance that the numbers will improve much for Romney. Trapped by a base that settles for nothing less than militantly anti-immigrant policies and rhetoric, he’s left with little to offer Latinos.

It’s nearly impossible to win national elections with those kinds of poll numbers. One might even be tempted to say that the GOP’s only hope is to suppress the vote. Women make up 51 percent of the U.S. population, and Latinos make up about 16 percent.

But those voting blocs are barely the beginning of the GOP’s problems.

The most startling revelation from the June poll in Colorado is that Romney leads Obama among senior citizens by 14 points—but loses among everyone else by 12 points. Voters under 30 prefer Obama by a margin of 30 percent. This means the elderly, particularly older white males, are the GOP’s savior. The sole reason that Romney has any chance of winning this fall is that elderly vote in greater numbers than any other voting bloc. In the 2010 mid-term election, 61 percent of the population over the age of 64 voted—compared with just 37 percent of citizens between 25 and 44, and 21 percent of the voting-age population under 25. The GOP would be on the edge of oblivion if the percentage of young and middle-aged people who vote were equal to that of seniors.

The fact that the elderly are a pillar of the GOP’s base poses a delicate problem. Seniors are, by definition, nearing the end of their lives. So the most important pillar of party’s base is gradually disappearing.

New waves of middle-aged people move into the category of the elderly all the time, obviously. But the key question for the GOP is whether the elderly will vote so reliably Republican a few years down the road. There’s good reason to doubt it—or, at least, there’s reason to doubt whether they will continue to do so if the party doesn’t fundamentally reform itself.

For several decades the GOP has been a strange marriage of two opposed political orientations: libertarianism and authoritarianism. The libertarian element believes in small government, low taxes, and as little government interference as possible in citizens’ private lives and in the workings of the economy. The authoritarian element believes in big government in certain sectors (especially the military and national-security spheres), and it favors the use of government’s power to promote “pro-moral” behavior.

The two orientations share a hatred of government intervention in the economic realm, a hatred that has been strong enough to keep the GOP’s marriage of libertarians and authoritarians together. Libertarians focus on what they like about Republicans’ “free market” economics. Authoritarians focus on the GOP’s “God and country” orthodoxy and ignore the libertarian element’s concern with civil liberties and its skepticism toward military adventures.

The GOP’s divided heart accounts for the party’s awful record of ballooning the national debt. Its base encourages Republicans to simultaneously love and hate government. So GOP leaders promote and pass huge and costly new initiatives (the Iraq war, Medicare Part D) while aggressively cutting taxes and decrying the evils of “big government.”

The great dilemma for the GOP is that there’s no future in the kind of social conservatism that now appeals strongly to the elderly. The Silent generation that preceded Baby Boomers is far more likely than younger generations to favor restrictions on civil liberties and to oppose gay rights and drug legalization. They’re also more likely to be religious and have a positive view of religion’s role in our national life. According to a Pew Research Center study released last year, 78 percent of people in the Silent generation believe that religion is “key to the nation’s success.” Just 46 percent of the Millennial generation (i.e., young people) agree with that idea.

It may be true that people grow more conservative and more religious with age, but the tide of opinion is moving in an irreversible direction on gay rights and drug legalization. Authoritarians are losing those battles. And the institutional religion that has been the heart of the religious right—and thus of the GOP’s authoritarian wing—is declining in relevance among Millennials.

As Sean Trende, of Real Clear Politics, has pointed out, political parties are continually in the process of shifting and reforming and putting together new coalitions, and the GOP will surely survive its imminent crisis in some fashion. But its reinvented form is likely to be more heavily libertarian than authoritarian, which means that we can expect a redoubling of the party’s anti-tax and austerity obsessions in coming years. Republicans might also develop some interest in defending civil liberties, difficult as that is to imagine.

Meanwhile, the GOP’s steep disadvantage among young people, women, African-Americans, and Latinos gives the party little margin for error. It’s so heavily reliant on white, elderly voters that any factor that depresses their turnout, or increases the turnout of other voting blocs, threatens to give the election to the Democrats. In Colorado this fall, for example, there will be an initiative on the ballot asking whether the state should legalize the possession of small amounts of marijuana. Young people are expected to turn out in higher-than-usual numbers to vote in favor. It’s yet another bad omen for Romney in Colorado.

Asked about the pot initiative recently, Romney naturally dodged the question. He is the perfect embodiment of the Republican Party’s divided heart. He’s deeply religious, apparently, but can’t or won’t say how his religion has shaped his life and politics. He promises to increase military spending and make war more aggressively—while cutting taxes and reducing the debt. He believes in freedom, except when it applies to people and practices he dislikes.

Libertarian? Authoritarian? Opportunistic? Yes, he’s all that and more.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; Politics/Elections; US: District of Columbia
KEYWORDS:
Obama 2012: It’s the End of the rats as We Know It

I could write a dozen reasons why the above is true.

1 posted on 07/08/2012 4:33:58 PM PDT by neverdem
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To: neverdem
If Colorado keeps burning and nothing is done about it, will 0 get blame?

If 0 goes in and promises every free new houses ...

2 posted on 07/08/2012 4:35:42 PM PDT by Tanniker Smith (Rome didn't fall in a day, either.)
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To: Tanniker Smith

My bet is that Colorado Cowboys will never vote for Obama.


3 posted on 07/08/2012 4:38:57 PM PDT by RC2 (Buy American and support the Wounded Warrior Project whenever possible.)
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To: neverdem

Fortunately, most people don’t care what Karl Rove says. He’s probably going to say the same thing in every state. I seriously doubt that Colorado is setting the tone for the nation.


4 posted on 07/08/2012 4:42:21 PM PDT by beandog (All Aboard the Choo Choo Train to Crazy Town)
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To: neverdem

Someone doesn’t know what “authoritarian” means. But what do you expect form Cultural Marxists too lazy to read Gramsci, that they can only bowdlerize Adorno.


5 posted on 07/08/2012 4:42:40 PM PDT by rmlew ("Mosques are our barracks, minarets our bayonets, domes our helmets, the believers our soldiers.")
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To: neverdem

Hmm..

Rasmussen Colorado: Obama 45%, Romney 45%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/colorado/election_2012_colorado_president

This article seems bogus.


6 posted on 07/08/2012 4:44:25 PM PDT by BarnacleCenturion
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To: neverdem

There is no “ground zero”. Colorado is important but so is Florida, Ohio and many others.


7 posted on 07/08/2012 4:45:33 PM PDT by plain talk
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To: neverdem

I don’t have a problem with the headline, the nomination and possible election of Romney is the end of the GOP.


8 posted on 07/08/2012 4:46:05 PM PDT by svcw (If one living cell on another planet is life, why isn't it life in the womb?)
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To: neverdem

Why is there a barf alert in the headline. It’s entirely possible that Romney will destroy the GOP, which is more like the old Social Librul Whig party that the GOP spun off from.


9 posted on 07/08/2012 4:46:05 PM PDT by Kevmo ( FRINAGOPWIASS: Free Republic Is Not A GOP Website. It's A Socon Site.)
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To: neverdem

I agree. The GOP is dead. It needs to be replaced with a real conservative party. There is no resurrecting the brand. They believe everything and they believe nothing.

John Roberts, Mitt Romney, John McCain, Megan McCain, Bob Dole, Ann Coulter, and the Log Cabins are the face and the future of the GOP.

I hope they die quickly, but it’s in the interests of the aristocracy to keep up the pretense that we have 2 parties when we don’t.


10 posted on 07/08/2012 4:48:17 PM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: svcw
It might be, but if so, it was time for the GOP to die and a new Party to be formed.

The Democrats are about to see their Party shattered as well.

11 posted on 07/08/2012 4:49:01 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: neverdem

The most populated counties have huge mormon populations, and currently they are voting in lock step at 94%.


12 posted on 07/08/2012 4:49:11 PM PDT by svcw (If one living cell on another planet is life, why isn't it life in the womb?)
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To: Kevmo

I concur, see my post that states what you are saying.


13 posted on 07/08/2012 4:49:52 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: svcw

We both posted about the same thing at the same time. It’s a little known thing in freeper lore known as a “dam tie”, or better yet, a “scarmabled dam tie”.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1306708/posts
posts 13 and 14


14 posted on 07/08/2012 4:51:05 PM PDT by Kevmo ( FRINAGOPWIASS: Free Republic Is Not A GOP Website. It's A Socon Site.)
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To: neverdem

“Republicans have performed poorly among women for some time.”

The above sentence may be true, but it would be equally true to say that Democrats have performed poorly among men for some time. How come nobody ever points that out?


15 posted on 07/08/2012 4:52:01 PM PDT by Texan Tory
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To: neverdem

“Republicans have performed poorly among women for some time.”

Not so. Ask my wife.


16 posted on 07/08/2012 4:55:05 PM PDT by Huskrrrr
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To: neverdem
Theo Anderson... has a Ph.D. in American history from Yale University and teaches history and literature seminars at the Newberry Library in Chicago.

This guy is just putting his fondest hopes into words. A Yale Ph. D. in history could not be considered an objective source of information or analysis.

17 posted on 07/08/2012 5:13:41 PM PDT by Will88
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To: neverdem

Yep same propaganda as last time...

Obama’s already won, no need to go vote

right?

Right?


18 posted on 07/08/2012 5:25:39 PM PDT by Freddd (No PA Engineers)
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To: neverdem

This elder citizen absolutely refuses to vote for abortionist/homosexual statists!! For the duration, if the GOP wants my vote, they’ll have to run pro-life, pro-family conservatives. Otherwise, to hell with them. A statist Republican is no better than a statist Democrap.

Vote straight conservative!! Gain the majority and impeach/expel the corrupt statist bastards!!


19 posted on 07/08/2012 5:26:35 PM PDT by Jim Robinson (Resistance to tyrants is obedience to God!!)
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To: neverdem

I don’t trust the GOP any more than I trust the treasonous democrats..

How can you explain the inventor of Romney-care running against the inventor of Obama-care.?...
Something is screwed up in River City..

Both parties are manipulated by some one.. some cabal.. or cabals...
I sensed the fix was in with GW Bush and for sure with Hillary being defeated by some nothing from Chicago...

There is a shadow goverment much deeper and embedded than I can diagnose..
The Myth Romney story is all the proof I need.. following the Juan Mclaim story..

The GOP is a tool, merely a tool... hard to know what to actually believe..
Obama owns the FBI, Secret Service , CIA , NSA and most if not all of the military National Security infra-structure..


20 posted on 07/08/2012 5:34:58 PM PDT by hosepipe (This propaganda has been edited to include some fully orbed hyperbole..)
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To: xzins
Mitt Romney, John McCain, Megan McCain, Bob Dole, Ann Coulter, and the Log Cabins are the face and the future of the GOP.

What about Mike Lee, Scott Walker, Paul Ryan, Reince Priebus, Ron Johnson, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Allen West, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, etc.?

With the exception of Romney, all of the ones I've listed are more prominent today than any of the ones you listed. What makes your list "the face and the future of the GOP" more than mine?

Defeatism is un-American.

21 posted on 07/08/2012 5:55:26 PM PDT by rogue yam
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To: neverdem

I think Colorado will go for Romney. There aren’t enough gay people there to put Obama over the top.


22 posted on 07/08/2012 5:55:57 PM PDT by pallis
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To: Huskrrrr
“Republicans have performed poorly among women for some time.” Not so. Ask my wife. That is funny.
23 posted on 07/08/2012 5:56:23 PM PDT by j_k_l
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To: Huskrrrr
“Republicans have performed poorly among women for some time.” Not so. Ask my wife. That is funny.
24 posted on 07/08/2012 5:56:32 PM PDT by j_k_l
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To: Jim Robinson

Had only the so called “conservatives” polled hard against Romney, following the primary suspensions that Romney bought off with the same cash he killed them with, we could have had a shot for a convention instead of a coronation, but cowards cower while singing ‘God Bless America’ for Romney and our future is sealed with theirs, for their fear and abhorrence of any resistance whatsoever.

We’re left with one man left with a following large enough and mad enough to maybe raise hell at the convention. Our friendly Uncle Nutty, and frankly, for that, I like his lasting and real brass.


25 posted on 07/08/2012 6:00:40 PM PDT by RitaOK (NO ROMNEY, NO COMPROMISE. NO WAY. NO HOW. NOT NOW. NOT EVER.)
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To: neverdem

“He’s deeply religious, apparently, but can’t or won’t say how his religion has shaped his life and politics.”

They so badly want Romney to do this so they can attack him relentlessly for it, just as they did GWB.


26 posted on 07/08/2012 6:04:33 PM PDT by Heart of Georgia (It's not a penalty - it's obamaTAX. Make him own it.)
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To: BarnacleCenturion

“A poll taken last month showed President Obama with a seven-point lead in the state. “

I can’t find any poll showing a 7 point lead for Obama. The best is a 4 point lead, with most in the range of 2 pts to a tie.
Wishful thinking.


27 posted on 07/08/2012 6:09:05 PM PDT by WILLIALAL
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To: rogue yam

They are stool pigeons for the false face, or they are part of the false face.

I’m demonstrating what is and what has been.

You’re just giving me more of that hopey-dreamy stuff.

The GOP is dead...DOA actually.


28 posted on 07/08/2012 6:17:38 PM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: RC2

Colorado is a lost cause of pot smoking, liberal dopeheads.
Maybe Denver and Boulder will burn, and take some rats with it!


29 posted on 07/08/2012 6:18:00 PM PDT by TexConfederate1861 (Deo Vindice (God will vindicate) February 22, 1861)
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To: pallis

No, but plenty of liberals!


30 posted on 07/08/2012 6:20:46 PM PDT by TexConfederate1861 (Deo Vindice (God will vindicate) February 22, 1861)
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To: rogue yam
Defeatism is un-American.

If you ever want a tagline, that's it!

31 posted on 07/08/2012 6:25:20 PM PDT by neverdem (Xin loi minh oi)
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To: xzins
They are stool pigeons for the false face, or they are part of the false face.

So Mike Lee, Scott Walker, Paul Ryan, Reince Priebus, Ron Johnson, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Allen West, Marco Rubio, and Ted Cruz are all "stool pigeons" (whatever the heck that is supposed to mean in this context) or liars?

Not one of these individuals is an honest, courageous conservative?

I think you are talking crazy, arrogant, defeatist nonsense here.

32 posted on 07/08/2012 6:31:06 PM PDT by rogue yam
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33 posted on 07/08/2012 6:51:35 PM PDT by RedMDer (https://support.woundedwarriorproject.org/default.aspx?tsid=93destr)
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To: neverdem

34 posted on 07/08/2012 7:08:04 PM PDT by StAnDeliver (=)
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To: StAnDeliver

The picture escapes me. What is that person doing?


35 posted on 07/08/2012 9:32:32 PM PDT by neverdem (Xin loi minh oi)
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To: neverdem
(Article) The fact that the elderly are a pillar of the GOP’s base poses a delicate problem. Seniors are, by definition, nearing the end of their lives. So the most important pillar of party’s base is gradually disappearing.

Hence, Death Panels. NOW do you understand Obamacare? It's a liquidation plan!

36 posted on 07/08/2012 11:08:33 PM PDT by lentulusgracchus
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To: Will88
This guy is just putting his fondest hopes into words. A Yale Ph. D. in history could not be considered an objective source of information or analysis.

And it sounds like he needs a job. Guest lecturer at a library sounds a lot like like Obozo's suspect gig at U. of Chicago: a "placeholder" for someone talent-spotted by "somebody big" -- Houston mayors get lecture gigs at Rice University, courtesy of the PTB. Sort of like Ike's presidency at Columbia University, while he was waiting to be called in by the economic royalists to be the Republican nominee for 1952.

Does our guy get free parking?

37 posted on 07/08/2012 11:21:31 PM PDT by lentulusgracchus
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To: rogue yam; P-Marlowe; cripplecreek; cva66snipe; Elvina; Finny; greyfoxx39; Hilda; ImpBill; kabar; ..

Any among your list who are sincere conservatives will find their hopes dashed or their directions twisted by the dark side.

This isn’t “defeatist”; it is pragmatic.

Realists recognize that the GOP is a tool used by the aristocracy to keep the direction of march always leftward.


38 posted on 07/09/2012 5:22:48 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: xzins

You are correct. The GOP has been moving in the leftward direction for quite some time. Gradually, but always leftward so that today the “rank and file” really is the GOP-E. There are not so many RINO’s; rather CINO’s (Conservative In Name Only)!


39 posted on 07/09/2012 11:02:00 AM PDT by ImpBill ("America, where are you now?" - Little "r" republican!)
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To: ImpBill
You are correct. The GOP has been moving in the leftward direction for quite some time. Gradually, but always leftward so that today the “rank and file” really is the GOP-E. There are not so many RINO’s; rather CINO’s (Conservative In Name Only)!

Don't be surprised if a realignment is happening. The rats are bailing out on working class whites, and they noticed.

Obama's Hyphenated America

In the 2010 midterm election, when Republicans crushed Democrats up and down the ballot nationally, less than 33 percent of the white working class voted for House Democrats – a record low.

It helps to explain why in 2010 the GOP got 60 percent of the total white vote for the first time in history.

The white working class has no other place to go. They and the Tea Party can remake the GOP. IMHO, the white working class is much more likely to embrace traditional values, maybe not as much as they used to, but I still think they would be a shot in the arm for conservatism.

40 posted on 07/09/2012 10:16:13 PM PDT by neverdem (Xin loi minh oi)
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