Posted on 07/06/2012 8:03:33 PM PDT by neverdem
Why the GOP nominee has a slight edge in the one poll that counts
Suppose that this November’s presidential election is so close that one candidate wins the popular vote and the other wins the Electoral College (and thus the election). Which candidate, Mitt Romney or Barack Obama, or neither, holds an edge in the Electoral College system for choosing U.S. presidents? Though his advantage is small, I believe it belongs to Romney.
My analysis begins with what I call a “political quotient.” I’ve constructed this device to measure a person’s political views quantitatively. Higher PQs correspond to more liberal views, with “100” indicating an outlook approximately as liberal as Nancy Pelosi’s or Barney Frank’s, while “0” indicates positions approximately as conservative as Jim DeMint’s or Michele Bachmann’s. According to my estimates, the PQ of the average American voter is 50.4.
In my book, Left Turn, and on my website, I estimate the PQ of the average voter in each of the 50 states and find that Iowa is the most moderate state in the nation: its average PQ, 50.7, is closest of all states to the national PQ of 50.4. In 2008, Iowa was also the median state in the Electoral College. That is, suppose you ordered all the representatives of the 2008 Electoral College according to the PQ of the representative’s state, starting with the lowest. In such an ordering, the first six members would be the representatives from Utah (the nation’s most conservative state), the next three members would be the representatives from Wyoming (the nation’s second-most conservative state), and so on. Such a list would contain 538 members, and the 270th member (the number necessary to win a majority of the Electoral College) would be a representative from Iowa.
In 2012, however, the median PQ state shifted to Colorado, a slightly more conservative state than Iowa, with a PQ of 48.2. The reason: conservative states (those with PQs lower than Iowa’s) gained six electoral votes in the last census. Thus, if the nation votes exactly 50–50, then Iowa would also be likely to vote almost exactly 50–50 (since its PQ is nearly the same as the nation’s PQ). But Colorado would tilt toward Romney, and with increased conservative electoral representation, so would the Electoral College.
One PQ point translates into about a half percentage point in terms of votes in a national election. For instance, Colorado is about 2.2 PQ points more conservative than the national average (50.4 minus 48.2). Accordingly, in a national election, we can expect Colorado to vote for the more conservative candidate by about 1.1 percentage points (one-half of 2.2) higher than the nation. If in the upcoming election the nation splits its vote 50–50 between Obama and Romney, then Colorado would vote 1.1 percent higher—or 51.1 to 48.9—for Romney.
Thus, according to my analysis, if the election produces a split decision, with a majority of the electorate picking one candidate and the Electoral College picking the other, Romney would win the Electoral College and become president.
Some recent polls support this forecast. Currently, the RealClearPolitics average poll, which surveys voters across the nation, gives Obama a 2.6 percent lead over Romney. Meanwhile, an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, which surveys voters in twelve swing states, gives Romney an 8-point lead over Obama. The average PQ of the 12 swing states is 48.7—almost exactly the PQ of Colorado. The 12 states should therefore predict very well the outcome of the Electoral College. These polls, like my PQ analysis, suggest that the Electoral College tilts slightly toward Romney, compared with a pure popular-vote system. Expect soon for liberals to renew their complaints about the unfairness of the Electoral College.
Tim Groseclose is the Marvin Hoffenberg Professor of American Politics at UCLA and the author of Left Turn: How Liberal Media Bias Distorts the American Mind.
So true.
Anointings set aside are not neccessarily lost forever.
Samson comes to mind, for example.
The important thing is that he gets a cohesive and biting campaign in August and September he roars out of the convention ready to kick but. He needs a 3 point plan and easy to digest message.
There are less than 10% of all people who are undecided and are going to vote. I doubt that more than 10% of those break for Obama. He is below 50% in all the polls. He is in trouble.
Mark my words, Mark ‘em!!! The doomsayers are not only tiresome, they are irrational.
Romney by 3 to 7 points in the popular vote ... or more, not less.
North of 290 electoral, likely to be revised up.
I would also prefer Newt or Sarah or many others, but the reality is they are unelectable precisely because they are better than Romney. Palin and Newt are too much for the undecided’s. The undecided’s are the reason it’s not going to be a chad festival. Also, much as I love them both, and may marry them when the next iteration of marry-whomever-you-want is ratified (OK not Newt,) neither is qualified to lead this particular economy.
It is correct that Rasmussen is most accurate both historically and methodologically. And he also knows Romney will win. Mark those words.
I have been lurking for an extremely long time, and I do apologize for posting a response before posting an article. But this is interesting. I received news at dinner tonight from a reliable source that Obama has all the electoral votes he needs to be re-elected. He will not win by popular vote, but electoral. This, according to my source, is a done deal.
“...I’ll probably suffer a heart attack. I barely made it through that one.”
Same here.
The left wins, with, either Barack Obama, or Mitt Romney! Conservatives and conservatism has, already, lost the race for ‘12 POTUS!
I thought about that in the past. Initially I thought the same. I still think it's possible. But I also remember thinking the same thing during the Bush vs Kerry campaign. In the end, the day after the election was quiet - just another day. I got the feeling that the Kerry loss was not so drastic to the dems after all. I suppose it could work out the same with Obama. Just a guess.
There would be two exceptions:
1) If the election results are too close.
or
2) Obama refuses to concede (even after an obvious defeat) and somehow tries to stay in power.
Then things could get violent.
Welcome newbie. The GOP got 60 percent of the white vote for the first time in 2010. The Jacksonian Democrats are probably going to leave the rats for good because of their energy and environmental policies.
Anybody who is still acting like Mr. Milquetoast at this stage is toast and I don’t care WHO he picks for VP .
I believe the opposite.
With your connections, do you know if there is a current list of which red states have opted to use Soros’s Spanish vote counting company?
Oh, really? And how is that possible to know before any votes are cast and any Electors have been appointed?
I wouldn’t expect less from a fellow Hoosier.
You’ve been duly christened with a bottle of bubbly broken over your bill.
I mean, bow.
We won’t survive four more years of the thing in the WH.
Looks like you’ve got tough hide. Again, welcome.
That's right. Even though I don't like plain vanilla. Which is what this namby-pamby zombie milquetoast is. I can't quite figure out if he's even alive.
Yo Mitt, vanilla is GOOD. Just put some syrup and jimmies on it. Get the crushed nuts from your opponent. Wake up, boy! Gimme a sign.
Here, give me that mirror, hold it up to his nostrils! Mitt, talk to me!
I can’t figure out why Mitt is raising all that money if he is just going to sit on it and not respond to the non-stop attacks from the Kenyan and his MSM lackeys.
His favorables have tanked over the past couple of months mainly because Obambi has painted him as a guy who loves outsourcing and screwing over blue collar workers.
He needs to stop the bleeding and go on the attack NOW if he wants to have a chance to win.
I also received news at dinner this evening from a reliable source that the newbie is not a troll. This source is a guy in the know. Done deal.
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