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Silver, Gold And The Coming Deflation (The Great Tribulation)
TMO ^ | 7-5-2012 | Hubert Moolman

Posted on 07/05/2012 3:40:07 PM PDT by blam

Silver, Gold And The Coming Deflation

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012
Jul 05, 2012 - 02:03 PM
By: Hubert Moolman

Historically gold has made its significant gains, relative to other assets (as well as nominally), not during inflation, but during deflation (Note: I am using the terms inflation and deflation very loosely in this case). These significant gold rallies historically occur when value flees instruments such as stocks and certain commodities.

Since the 1920s there have been three major gold rallies (1930s, 1970s and the current rally).

All three major gold rallies came after a significant top in the Dow and the Dow/Gold ratio (1929, 1966 and 1999). A great portion of the 1930s and 1970s rallies occurred when the Dow was falling significantly. In fact, the biggest rise in the gold price occurred when the Dow was falling or was trading closer to the bottom of its trading range during that period.

The current gold rally (since 2001) has mostly been during the time when the Dow has also been rising, with the exception of a short period in both 2002 and the end of 2008 to Feb 2009. The best of the current gold rally, since 2001, has been during a time when the Dow was rising as well.

With the Dow still relatively close to all-time highs; I believe the current gold rally has not yet had its best period - it is still to come, and will be during the time that the Dow is falling just like in the 1930s and 1970s. It is my believe that if gold goes on to rally from here, then we will have financial turmoil like there has never been. The word depression might not be adequate to describe what is coming. The Great Tribulation might be the proper term. More details on this in my next updates.

Gold/Silver Ratio Suggests Silver Will Outperform Gold

In my last update, I covered the Gold/Silver ratio, and explained why I think the Gold/Silver ratio will soon fall straight down. Below is a Gold/Silver ratio chart (from stockcharts.com), which shows some more evidence to suggest that it could indeed fall soon:

On the chart I have indicated a trading channel in which the ratio has been moving for the last four months. On Thursday, 28 June, it hit the top of that channel and was smacked down immediately. When price goes out of this channel, it could be a sign of where this ratio, as well as the gold and silver price is going.

More importantly, there is a bearish divergence, between the ratio and the RSI. The RSI has been making lower highs, whereas the ratio has been making higher highs. This could be a signal that the ratio will soon fall significantly, confirming higher prices for gold and silver.

Below is a chart for gold (from fxstreet.com):

On the chart, I have indicated a big triangle. When the price moves out of this triangle, it is very likely to fall or rise very fast (a very long way). It really could go either way, and nobody can be 100% certain which way it will go.

However, before price makes a big move, there is almost certainly going to be signs and evidence of that big move. Based on the evidence that I have collected, analysing gold and silver, I am convinced that the big move will be higher.


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: commodities; deflation; gold; mnarkets; silver

1 posted on 07/05/2012 3:40:18 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam


2 posted on 07/05/2012 3:43:02 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam

I own SLW and THM. I think if Gold falls enough I should buy the physical but it is too high now.


3 posted on 07/05/2012 3:50:25 PM PDT by BipolarBob
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To: blam
"...When the price moves out of this triangle, it is very likely to fall or rise very fast (a very long way)..."
-
I'm on the just on the verge of buying another 100 ounces of old circulated morgan dollars.
Is that a smart move or a stupid move?

"Ay, there's the rub"
That, Mr. Shakespeare, is THE question.

(from Hamlet 3/1)
To be, or not to be: that is the question
Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles,
And by opposing end them? To die: to sleep;
No more; and by a sleep to say we end
The heart-ache and the thousand natural shocks
That flesh is heir to, 'tis a consummation
Devoutly to be wish'd. To die, to sleep;
To sleep: perchance to dream: ay, there's the rub;
For in that sleep of death what dreams may come
When we have shuffled off this mortal coil,
Must give us pause: there's the respect
That makes calamity of so long life;
For who would bear the whips and scorns of time,
The oppressor's wrong, the proud man's contumely,
The pangs of despised love, the law's delay,
The insolence of office and the spurns
That patient merit of the unworthy takes,
When he himself might his quietus make
With a bare bodkin? who would fardels bear,
To grunt and sweat under a weary life,
But that the dread of something after death,
The undiscover'd country from whose bourn
No traveller returns, puzzles the will
And makes us rather bear those ills we have
Than fly to others that we know not of?
Thus conscience does make cowards of us all;
And thus the native hue of resolution
Is sicklied o'er with the pale cast of thought,
And enterprises of great pith and moment
With this regard their currents turn awry,
And lose the name of action. - Soft you now!
The fair Ophelia! Nymph, in thy orisons
Be all my sins remember'd.

4 posted on 07/05/2012 4:05:09 PM PDT by Repeal The 17th (We have met the enemy and he is us.)
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To: Repeal The 17th

Why not just buy silver eagles?


5 posted on 07/05/2012 4:10:50 PM PDT by BipolarBob
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To: BipolarBob

The price comparison per ounce of silver between the two is just not there.


6 posted on 07/05/2012 4:15:39 PM PDT by Repeal The 17th (We have met the enemy and he is us.)
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To: Repeal The 17th
The price comparison per ounce of silver between the two is just not there.

Gold and silver are similar is someways but depending upon their actual value to industry vs their value to the economy, they fluctuate somewhat independent.

Therefor I buy equal values of BOTH and will sell only when it is prudent and when that (silver vs gold) is peaked or peaking.

The other will peak at another time but I am covered by keeping a balance at most time and purchasing for replacement when it is lower in the cycle.

7 posted on 07/05/2012 4:36:07 PM PDT by jongaltsr
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To: BipolarBob

The premium is too rich; with Morgans and other “junk” silver, your haircut is minimum.


8 posted on 07/05/2012 4:37:16 PM PDT by pingman ("Human history seems logical in afterthought, but a mystery in forethought." (Strauss & Howe))
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To: jongaltsr

If the author turns out to be prescient, and a drop in the G/S Ration occurs as growth in silver outpaced gold percentage-wise, it’ll be a great time to convert your silver to gold. Trying to catch a parabola is tough though; they happen so quickly.


9 posted on 07/05/2012 4:41:55 PM PDT by pingman ("Human history seems logical in afterthought, but a mystery in forethought." (Strauss & Howe))
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To: BipolarBob

I’ve been buying silver and gold coins, a lot more silver than gold, not because it’s an investment but I see it as my kids inheritance. I don’t know what the dollar will be like by the time they’re adults, or if we’ll have a completely different currency, but actual gold and silver will have SOME value, at the very least.


10 posted on 07/05/2012 4:46:34 PM PDT by ChocChipCookie
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To: jongaltsr

I don’t buy gold simply because I do not know of a gold equivalent to buying circulated peace/morgan dollars AKA “junk silver”.


11 posted on 07/05/2012 4:56:01 PM PDT by Repeal The 17th (We have met the enemy and he is us.)
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To: ChocChipCookie
"...but actual gold and silver will have SOME value, at the very least."

Bottom line common sense and good insurance...not losing everything.

12 posted on 07/05/2012 4:58:43 PM PDT by blam
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To: BipolarBob

Silver is an industrial metal. Many uses.

Metals as a whole are nice to own.

Spot price on Copper is about $3.50 per pound.

Lead and copper both have many manufacturing uses.

And you can draw copper to make jackets for bullet and cast lead to form bullets. Very useful in unusual times.


13 posted on 07/05/2012 5:09:52 PM PDT by Texas Fossil (Government, even in its best state is but a necessary evil; in its worst state an intolerable one)
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To: blam

I carry a silver 1964 Washington quarter in my billfold.

From time-to-time, when the situation is right,
I pull it out and pass it around to lecture about how
in 1964 that quarter was worth a gallon of gasoline,
and today it still is.

(It seems to be that soon we will be approaching buying two gallons of gasoline for one 1964 quarter)


14 posted on 07/05/2012 5:12:03 PM PDT by Repeal The 17th (We have met the enemy and he is us.)
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To: blam

After the general bond collapse and currency adjustment, we’ll see a great inflation in foreign products (imports) and extreme deflation in a few things made in America (especially labor).


15 posted on 07/05/2012 5:21:03 PM PDT by familyop ("Wanna cigarette? You're never too young to start." --Deacon, "Waterworld")
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To: Repeal The 17th

why pay a numismatic premium over the spot price of silver?
unless you are building a collection of course or getting them dirt cheap... the meltdown value of a Morgan is less than $22

http://www.coinflation.com/

If you are interested in collecting Morgans, than go for the rare issues. If you are intersted in silver then go for Eagles or Maple leafs.... just a suggestion

BTW, I have bought some junk silver, especially dimes


16 posted on 07/05/2012 5:33:19 PM PDT by silverleaf (Every human spent about half an hour as a single cell)
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To: blam

What are your thoughts of purchasing land instead of gold and silver?

There are some great deals on land!


17 posted on 07/05/2012 6:42:31 PM PDT by kas7351
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To: blam

What are your thoughts of purchasing land instead of gold and silver?

There are some great deals on land!


18 posted on 07/05/2012 6:42:50 PM PDT by kas7351
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To: Texas Fossil
"Spot price on Copper is about $3.50 per pound.


19 posted on 07/05/2012 6:49:50 PM PDT by blam
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To: kas7351

Didn’t Soros do just that about a year ago?


20 posted on 07/05/2012 7:23:21 PM PDT by STJPII
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To: blam

So, $3.30-3.50 is relatively close to $3.50 per lb.

I did not look up the price.

It has been near $4.00 per lb. before. (not sure that is a spot market price)

I lived in the copper mining district in NM in the 1972-1986 time frame. When I left copper was $.47 per lb.

That is quite a run up.


21 posted on 07/05/2012 8:19:29 PM PDT by Texas Fossil (Government, even in its best state is but a necessary evil; in its worst state an intolerable one)
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To: kas7351
"What are your thoughts of purchasing land instead of gold and silver? "

Why not a little of all?

Farm land is good.

22 posted on 07/05/2012 8:22:04 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam

Historically before & during major wars copper, lead and cotton prices are very high.

Financial collapses are breeding ground for wars.

Hungry people do desperate things.


23 posted on 07/05/2012 8:23:51 PM PDT by Texas Fossil (Government, even in its best state is but a necessary evil; in its worst state an intolerable one)
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To: Texas Fossil
I think scrap copper was $3.30 a pound when I sold. I still have some scrap copper that I save for just...whatever.


24 posted on 07/05/2012 8:30:17 PM PDT by blam
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To: kas7351
What are your thoughts of purchasing land instead of gold and silver?

Gold is gold and silver is silver (bullion, that is). Land is many things, more variables to factor in. Do you mean purchasing land that you "own" but the bank holds the mortgage? Or land that you *own*?

Personally, and I am believer in a coming crash, so you must factor that into my outlook, I would like to get a little land out of the way somewhat so I could fix it up as a getaway option. I can't afford to pay cash for what I want, so I don't see it as a good move for that reason.

25 posted on 07/06/2012 5:51:35 PM PDT by ChildOfThe60s (If you can remember the 60s....you weren't really there)
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To: Texas Fossil
Financial collapses are breeding ground for wars.

Hungry people do desperate things.

Precisely why I disagree with those that believe the military will not go along with subjugating the civilian population of this country, including firing upon us.

Hungry, angry, disenfranchised, maladjusted types are prime recruits for the military in a crash, especially when the country's leadership is despotically oriented. Which I think ours obviously is. Good and moral men won't participate in that, so they either leave or are forced out.

My opinion for those here that think the military will side with the civilian population. It won't be that simple.

26 posted on 07/06/2012 6:00:27 PM PDT by ChildOfThe60s (If you can remember the 60s....you weren't really there)
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To: Repeal The 17th

This is my opinion on “junk” Morgans. (I probably own 250 or so)

They are kinda neat coins, but once you’ve seen however many dozens, you’ve pretty much seen them.

You MUST go a coin show and wander around one weekend afternoon for a few hours (www.coinshows.com) and see how many silver dollars there are. Gargantuan numbers. Giant, enormous numbers of them. Many many years had 10 million minted. Even after so many millions were melted down over the years.

I classify a year/mint of SDs as “sort of rare” if there were about 1.7 million or fewer minted. Google “morgan dollar mintage” for a table. Something under 20 diff dates/mints fall into this category. The next stratum is about 400K-800K minted. Rough numbers. These are substantially rarer and are the so-called “key dates”. There are maybe ten dates/mints of these. Then there are the cats’ meows, the CC mints, and a few dates down in the 200K minted. I don’t have them memorized because I don’t care that much, but 1893-S is one.

98.5% of all you will see are very common dates. And of those dates, rather surprising numbers are in quite good condition. But they are not worth more than their silver content. By the way, SDs contain something like 1.06 times the silver in two half dollars, which is different than halves containing *exactly* double the silver of two quarters or exactly 5 times the Ag in 2 dimes. So SDs, because they are “neat” coins, typically sell for extra premium over junk quarters and dimes and halves. Justifiably. But I generally find them to be overpriced, and not as good a form as one might imagine.

There are large numbers of counterfeit Morgans that were made in China. And because of that, I like them less. People know this. Are they detectable? Yeah, pretty much, but now this places an obligation to examine them carefully, making transacting them a tad more difficult or at least time consuming. So where and how are you going to get one of those stinkers? In a bag of 100? Hmmm.

My own preferred form of silver is 10 oz bars, J-M or Englehard if possible, but the 3-4 better secondary mints are fine. APMEX, Amark, Silvertown, Wall St mint, NTR, these names come to mind and carry less premium than J-M or Engle. But that is just my opinion. I like Eagles, but they carry a fat premium I’d rather not pay. And they are NOT .999 silver, they are like 23.3 or 23.7 karat. There is a skosh of copper in there to toughen up the coin.

So, I only buy SDs when I can buy them for 2x the market price of two halves. And that is rare. I like to buy 10 oz bars (or, 1 oz rounds) when they’re having a 99 cents over spot sale.


27 posted on 07/06/2012 6:45:07 PM PDT by Attention Surplus Disorder (A conservative, a liberal and a moderate walk into a bar. Bartender says "what'll it be, Mitt?")
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To: ChildOfThe60s
Our current military will not side with despots.

Despots if not removed will recruit those who will. That is not an instant change.

The citizens are armed. They will not relinquish those weapons quietly. FACT.

There is a lot riding on November.

I am a boomer, born in 1947. BUT I have never been a part of the 60’s culture. Grew up on a farm, worked for independent businesses for 35 years. Not a leftie tendency anywhere in my body.

We shall see.

28 posted on 07/06/2012 7:05:21 PM PDT by Texas Fossil (Government, even in its best state is but a necessary evil; in its worst state an intolerable one)
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To: ChildOfThe60s

I am thinking of buying land and paying cash for it. I am looking at it as an investment along with having a getaway place if needed.

We still need to have cash, gold or silver. Cash is probably the worst option based on the ease of devaluing cash from the govt stance. Course bullets are a great bargaining tool also....


29 posted on 07/06/2012 7:43:15 PM PDT by kas7351
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To: Texas Fossil
Despots if not removed will recruit those who will. That is not an instant change.

I agree on both points.

Addressing the second, the change has not happened. But it is and has been a work in progress whenever the Dems have the upper hand. The Clintons drove out some of the good career officers, Obama is doing the same now as well. Their goal is a gradual rotting from within the military. IMO, that is their desired and defined goal, not an unplanned result of misguided policies.

It is analogous to salt water seeping into a freshwater aquifer. One day you go to the well and it is no longer potable. It happens slowly.

30 posted on 07/06/2012 9:14:35 PM PDT by ChildOfThe60s (If you can remember the 60s....you weren't really there)
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To: ChildOfThe60s

Agreed


31 posted on 07/07/2012 5:12:14 AM PDT by Texas Fossil (Government, even in its best state is but a necessary evil; in its worst state an intolerable one)
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