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Senate race solidifying (what happened to a Repub Senate in 2012?)
Realclearpolitics ^ | 7/4/12

Posted on 07/04/2012 9:33:00 AM PDT by pabianice

Link only.

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS:
The current Senate race map shows no change in total seats from 47 Republicans unless something changes. It calls eight toss-ups with six already Dem. This is a big change from several months ago when it was noted that Repubs had to defend just 10 seats to the Dems' 28 and Repub control of the Senate was considered likely. Will the Obamacare issue make a difference now?
1 posted on 07/04/2012 9:33:06 AM PDT by pabianice
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To: pabianice

Old numbers. The Supreme Court has changed things. Besides, in their toss-ups I see five or six states where recent polls have the Republican in the lead.


2 posted on 07/04/2012 9:37:07 AM PDT by MrChips (MrChips)
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To: pabianice

I think this explains Barry’s obsession with needing more and more money for his “war chest”. He knows that the communist DemocRATS are going to spend everything they have trying to hold on to the Senate. They don’t care about the White House and the House of Representatives. As long as they can hold the Senate, communism in America will survive and continue to feed off of the system and America’s treasury.


3 posted on 07/04/2012 9:38:28 AM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (ObamaCare is only the beginning. It's all downhill from here.)
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To: pabianice

This is TOTAL agit-prop. No one believes this, even the NewYork Times.


4 posted on 07/04/2012 9:38:28 AM PDT by WashingtonSource
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To: pabianice
I still think Republican control of the Senate is likely - and Obamacare/tax will help to make the difference.

With Kasich in Ohio and Romney ahead there, I think Brown will lose. I believe that Allen will win in Virginia. I haven't studied the others well enough.

5 posted on 07/04/2012 9:39:44 AM PDT by 103198
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To: pabianice

McCaskill is toast in MO....by double-digits. I guarantee it.


6 posted on 07/04/2012 9:42:16 AM PDT by schaef21
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To: pabianice

Lmao. MO a tossup? Every poll has McCaskill down double digits. I quit looking when I saw that one!


7 posted on 07/04/2012 9:43:49 AM PDT by KansasGirl
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To: pabianice

So where does all this information used to make these determinations come from? I must have missed it and I looked all over the page for lins kto a story or outside polling used to come to these conclusions and I find nothing.

Worthless as a source of informtion as far as I am concerned.

I’ll just this, at least it has some facts to use as a basis:

012 Battle for the Senate … Could GOP be Poised to Retake Senate … Montana Senate: Rehberg (R) 53%, Tester (D) 43% & Nevada Senate: Heller (R) 51%, Berkley (D) 40% & Missouri Senate: Steelman (R) 49%, McCaskill (D) 42%

http://scaredmonkeys.com/2012/05/05/2012-battle-for-the-senate-could-gop-be-poised-to-retake-senate-montana-senate-rehberg-r-53-tester-d-43-nevada-senate-heller-r-51-berkley-d-40-missouri-senate-steelman-r-49/


8 posted on 07/04/2012 9:44:57 AM PDT by scram2
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To: pabianice
Although Osama Obama will carry Massachusetts by 10 points Scott Brown is expected to hold his seat...sorry,TED KENNEDY'S seat...this November.This,to me,strongly suggests that Osama will have no coattails this November or perhaps even reverse coattails.If my hunch proves true that doesn't bode well (at all) for the RAT Senatorial Campaign Committee.
9 posted on 07/04/2012 9:46:10 AM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Bill Ayers Was *Not* "Just Some Guy In The Neighborhood")
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To: pabianice

This is a totally worthless RCP poll.

They throw in several wildly insane polls to get the results they want.

If they can find some RAT poll that has Obumbles up 115% -0% they average it in, and do it with a straight face.


10 posted on 07/04/2012 9:49:33 AM PDT by Beagle8U (Free Republic -- One stop shopping ....... It's the Conservative Super WalMart for news .)
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To: scram2

“012 Battle for the Senate … Could GOP be Poised to Retake Senate … Montana Senate: Rehberg (R) 53%, Tester (D) 43% & Nevada Senate: Heller (R) 51%, Berkley (D) 40% & Missouri Senate: Steelman (R) 49%, McCaskill (D) 42%”

It’s laughable that these seats are considered “toss ups.” Incumbents that poll in the low 40’s now are not going to win. The same is true for FUBO! The real problem the Republicans have to overcome is the fact that a lot of them are “feckless” jerks who acted like RATS when GWB the Worthless was in office.


11 posted on 07/04/2012 9:53:17 AM PDT by vette6387
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To: FlingWingFlyer

I think you are exactly right. What is not covered by the media is that it seems to be every man for himself this year among dems. Now what Obama can use of foreign money is unknown, but Wall Street is not his friend this year, according to the Insider.

Senate dems can not appear with Obama and he has thrown them overboard, all of them racing for the same cash pool.


12 posted on 07/04/2012 9:57:35 AM PDT by RitaOK (NO ROMNEY, NO COMPROMISE. NO WAY. NO HOW. NOT NOW. NOT EVER.)
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To: Gay State Conservative

I wrote off Brown’s chances for reelection the day he was elected in January 2010. I knew he would not ever get reelected. And nothing has changed about that.

But that is OK. He gave us the gift of breaking the 60 seat Senate supermajority for the year 2010, and as a bonus he kept a Democrat out of the seat for 2011 and 2012. From a state like Massachusetts, you have to accept the small gifts you receive from the voters. But we knew it would not last long. We may get another GOP senator in Massachusetts in another 20 years if we are lucky, but not this year.

The good news is there are several others states that look good for pick-ups this year, and I see a GOP majority as a result. We should ignore the liberal media’s obsession with the Massachusetts race and concentrate on the races that we can win.


13 posted on 07/04/2012 10:14:30 AM PDT by ChronicMA
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To: pabianice

From July, 2010 :Democrats Jump Into Six-Point Lead on Generic Ballot http://www.gallup.com/poll/141440/democrats-jump-six-point-lead-generic-ballot.aspx. I guess you remember what happened in November, 2010.


14 posted on 07/04/2012 10:26:58 AM PDT by gusopol3
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To: pabianice

It wouldn’t surprise me.

Americans are some of the cheapest dates on Earth: our politicians are buying our votes with our own money.


15 posted on 07/04/2012 10:28:36 AM PDT by Tzimisce (THIS SUCKS)
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To: ChronicMA

Snowe will most likely give up her seat to Angus King, an “independent” who will be sure to caucus with the Dems.


16 posted on 07/04/2012 10:29:33 AM PDT by NewHampshireDuo
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To: vette6387

I agree. It’s all about the liberal media keeping the troops motivated.


17 posted on 07/04/2012 10:48:05 AM PDT by scram2
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To: pabianice

if memory serves me the GOP fell shy of control of the senate in ‘10 when there were 22 senate races....i believe there are 33 races in play in November which means the rats have a heap of trouble on their hands...


18 posted on 07/04/2012 10:53:08 AM PDT by God luvs America (63.5million pay no federal income tax then vote demoKrat)
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To: pabianice

btw- Nelson in Florida a toss-up??? also though i read elsewhere Tester in Montana in a lot of trouble...


19 posted on 07/04/2012 10:55:37 AM PDT by God luvs America (63.5million pay no federal income tax then vote demoKrat)
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To: pabianice

That’s not what I saw when I just visited the RCP page. First, it showed the current Senate count: 53/47 in favor of Dems.

Then it showed 47 safe Dems and 45 safe Repubs. for the upcoming election. When I looked up the eight toss-up states, I saw the following states with Repubs leading...

MA - Brown
MO - Steelman (assuming she wins primary; she’s favored)
MT - Rehberg
NV - Heller
ND - Berg
WI - Thompson (assuming he wins primary; he’s favored)

The two where the Dems are in the lead are:

FL - Nelson avg. +6
VA - Kaine avg. +.1

So, Repubs are winning six out of eight with VA being a statistical tie. At this point, the numbers look good for a Repub. Senate flip.


20 posted on 07/04/2012 10:57:43 AM PDT by davandbar
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To: Beagle8U

You have hit on the reason we see pollls such as the recent Bloomberg one which had Obumbler up by 12. It as phony as the day is long and they know it but the idea was to throw it in the mix and by doing do it pulls up the average.

To the extent polls are worth anything I’ll stick with Rasmussen who uses a rolling 3 day sample and speaks to only likely voters.


21 posted on 07/04/2012 11:02:26 AM PDT by scram2
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To: pabianice

btw RCP map sucks. Safe states and toss up states are very close color-wise. Makes map unusable.


22 posted on 07/04/2012 12:14:07 PM PDT by ChronicMA
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To: scram2

Everyone should have a look at this:

http://www.theblaze.com/contributions/why-obama-will-lose-in-a-landslide/

Wayne Allen Root has it right. No one who voted for McLame will vote for Obama, and his “ethnic groups” are all having second thoughts about him. Any incumbent who can’t poll close to 50% at this juncture just isn’t going to be re-elected. The “undecideds” and the “independents” will not break his way either. If four years haven’t convinced them not to be “undecided,” they will vote for his opponent. And when you compare Romney to McLame, there is no comparison. Without Sarah Palin, McLame would have “really lost.”


23 posted on 07/04/2012 12:19:37 PM PDT by vette6387
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To: pabianice

It’s been pointed out in numerous other FR posts that RCP uses many questionable polls that oversample dems in order to skew their averages.


24 posted on 07/04/2012 12:47:39 PM PDT by hotshu (Redistribution of wealth by the government is nothing but theft under the color of law.)
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To: pabianice

Even if the numbers don’t change, I believe that Tea Party candidates have already sidelined some RINO Senators in primaries, so the quality of the Senate should improve.


25 posted on 07/04/2012 1:01:27 PM PDT by rem_mitchell
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To: davandbar

Don’t forget Nebraska. Fischer is up anywhere from 18-25 over Kerrey.


26 posted on 07/04/2012 2:48:19 PM PDT by ak267
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To: davandbar

Wisconsin could vote Baldwin with far left views? No way her views reflect much of Wisconsin beyond Madison . GOP race to lose? Ready to attack a woman far , far out of the mainstream?


27 posted on 07/04/2012 3:34:14 PM PDT by SMGFan
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To: pabianice

Poll analysis on Fox this morning: Obama has an 8 point lead over Romney among people who don’t vote. Romney leads Obama by 3 among people who do vote. Interesting.


28 posted on 07/05/2012 5:53:50 AM PDT by pabianice
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