“Demographic projections are like predicting the weather”
“The birth rate of Arabs in Israel is dropping”
Says whom? Post a source backing up your demographics, I did: Israel’s own Census Bureau.
The Muslim death rate is dropping quickly due to improved nutrition and health care, dropping more than the Jewish death rate as Jews have generally always had a healthier lifestyle and great access to health care. That will put the Muslims even farther ahead.
When Everything’s Been Said
Gantalftb: “One state: Israel annexes Palestine and makes its residents citizens of Israel, free to vote and have the power of self-determination within their own country. Oops! That would make Israeli Jews a minority in their own country.”
As in right away? Right now?
Gandalftb both here and there: “The Muslim death rate is dropping quickly due to improved nutrition and health care, dropping more than the Jewish death rate as Jews have generally always had a healthier lifestyle and great access to health care. That will put the Muslims even farther ahead.”
As in some day. And if Muslim population growth is partially predicated on the fact that the elderly Muslims are living longer despite a drop in the birth rate, that bodes even worse for long-term Muslim population growth. Old people do not make more babies. Babies grow up and do. So if Muslim birth rates are dropping, then Jews are winning the population race, no matter how much longer improved health care helps the geezers hang on.
“Says whom? Post a source backing up your demographics, I did: Israels own Census Bureau.”
Aside: Part of the day, I speak a language other than English, usually Hebrew, sometimes Yiddish or half-remembered Arabic, but even I still remember that “who” is nominative, and “whom” is genitive-accusative.
But getting to your request for a source:
Report: Israel’s Jewish Births Up 20%
“The findings, from the Interior Ministrys Population and Immigration Authority, offset widespread concerns that Israels 80 percent Jewish majority is threatened by population growth among Israeli Arabs - and residents of Palestinian Authority administered enclaves in Judea and Samaria. .
In 2001, 69 percent of births were Jewish, 28 percent Muslim and 1.9 percent Christian. By contrast, in 2010 the respective birth figures for the ethnic groups were 76 percent, 22 percent and 1.3 percent.
Israeli Arabs tend to have large families, but this has changed along with the sectors economic elevation into the middle class. A growing number of religious Jews, meanwhile, has perpetuated higher Jewish fertility.
Analysts note the long-term implication of such a trend is an overwhelmingly Jewish future in Israel as the decades progress.
Such projections run counter to the long-held dogmas of Israel’s left that date back to the Mapai government of Prime Minister Levi Eshkol, which argued at the end of the 1967 Six Day War that annexing Judea and Samaria would be demographic suicide for the Jewish state.”
Or if you think A7 is too biased, let’s look at something more “respectable”:
The Politics of Palestinian Demography, Yaakov Faitelson, Middle East Quarterly
“On February 9, 2008, Luay Shabaneh, the new president of the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS), published the results of a December 2007 Palestinian Authority population census. According to the new data, since 1997, the Arab population has increased to 1,460,000 in the Gaza Strip and 2,300,000 in the West Bank (including 208,000 in East Jerusalem) to a total of 3,760,000 peoplean increase of 30 percent in one decade. East Jerusalem is under Israel’s administration, but the Palestinian Authority nevertheless counts its Arab population as part of the territory it administers. Thus, the East Jerusalem Arabs are double-counted: once as part of the Arab population of Israel, and again as a part of the population of the Palestinian Authority.
The 30 percent population increase again caused renewed demographic panic in Israel. According to a BBC news report, Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert said that failure to negotiate a two-state solution with the Palestinians would bring the end of the State of Israel.
But unlike what had happened during previous demographic panics, Israeli experts began to raise serious questions about the accuracy of the census. Such questions had been a long time in coming: Most of the middle- and long-term demographic forecasts for Israel, the West Bank, and the Gaza Stripformulated by demographers over the last 110 yearshave turned out to be unsound, often dramatically so. This is due to the fact that long-term military, political, economic, and social changes in the region particularly, and in the world in general, cannot be accurately predicted; what is presented with a patina of scientific legitimacy is often simply someone’s best guess. Added to this problem is a more troublesome one: Population statistics and birth rates play such an important role in the Israeli-Palestinian conflictfrom the way that foreign aid is allocated to Israel’s decision to hold or relinquish territorythat those attempting to manipulate the perceptions of both the public and policymakers are irresistibly drawn to the field.
Those who questioned the new Palestinian census were correct: The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics’ demographic data arrived at its data not through objective scientific inquiry but rather by overstating the size of the Arab population residing in the territories administered by the Palestinian Authority.”
Or if you like the informality of a blog, you can try Toni at Bearcreek Ledger:
Fallacy of Palestinian Authority Population Statistics