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3 Must-See Charts For Anyone Who Thinks We're Going Into A Recession
TBI ^ | 7-3-2012 | Joe Weisenthal

Posted on 07/03/2012 1:02:17 PM PDT by blam

3 Must-See Charts For Anyone Who Thinks We're Going Into A Recession

Joe Weisenthal
Jul. 3, 2012, 3:25 PM

Our friend Matt Busigin, who writes the blog Macrofugue, has sent us 3 brilliant charts that give some much-needed context to the recent economic data.

What they do is look at the average progression of various datapoints in the 12 before a recession (black line) and compare that to the progression of that same datapoint right now (blue line).

So for example, here's the average progression of YOY growth in auto sales in (black line) vs. the YOY growth in auto sales over the last 12 months.

As you can see, the trend is nothing recessionary at all.

Macrofugue

Here's another one showing ISM employment. Again, same idea. The average pre-recession trend is in black and the current trend is in blue.

The trend is again much better.

Macrofugue

And finally, here's retail sales growth. The YOY change just doesn't look at all like past recessions.

Macrofugue

Good news for everyone. Bad news for all the gloomers who predict an imminent downturn.

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: ism; recession; recovery; retail
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Obama pulls off a recovery!
1 posted on 07/03/2012 1:02:29 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam
During the campaign our Community Organizer-in-Chief will turn these charts upside down and start singing "happy days are here again".

Either that or he'll claim racism.

2 posted on 07/03/2012 1:05:56 PM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Bill Ayers Was *Not* "Just Some Guy In The Neighborhood")
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To: blam

As long as the King of Kenya keeps sending out those checks (Welfare, Unemployment, Fake Disability, etc.) retail sales will continue to show faux strength. We are headed towards a Greek style collapse when the debt overhang either caves in on us or taxes must be raised so high to simply maintain the status quo, that it removes an enormous amount of cash out of the economy sending our recession into a depression.


3 posted on 07/03/2012 1:11:17 PM PDT by festusbanjo (Nov 2012 is a battle between those who love freedom and those who love free stuff.)
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To: blam

If it wasn’t you, I’d think you were series. ;-)


4 posted on 07/03/2012 1:13:13 PM PDT by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
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To: cuban leaf
The Greatest Economic Collapses In History
5 posted on 07/03/2012 1:15:11 PM PDT by blam
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To: Gay State Conservative

6 posted on 07/03/2012 1:15:26 PM PDT by dontreadthis
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To: Gay State Conservative

7 posted on 07/03/2012 1:15:26 PM PDT by dontreadthis
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To: cuban leaf

and hughes...


8 posted on 07/03/2012 1:18:05 PM PDT by brivette
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To: blam

how would one reconcile this with 15% unemployment / underemployment?


9 posted on 07/03/2012 1:18:28 PM PDT by paul51 (11 September 2001 - Never forget)
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To: blam
Unfortunately what these charts and assertions conveniently ignore is:

- Much of the western world's growth for the past 40 years has been fueled by a massive increase and expansion of debt, year after year. In spending that growing amount of money, we've had the benefits of consumption now with a delayed bill in the future. "Let our kids pay for it."

- The gradual - and more recently - accelerating - accumulation of growing debt (with increased banking leverage, governmental indebtedness, deficit spending, etc.) has started to reach the limits for weaker western countries.

- Eurozone countries which lack their own printing presses for money can't just inflate their currencies to devalue their debt any longer. Once their banks are maxed out in lending to them, they're out of luck... No sane investor would invest in Spain, etc. any more.

- The reality is that official measures of inflation have been changed and changed and changed to minimize the official levels of reported inflation. Figures reporting economic activity, therefore, appear to be better than they are in real terms because they are reported in nominal terms - not true inflation adjusted numbers.

This game of "solving the problem" through the issuance of ever more debt and more spending can be continued for additional years in places like the US... but there is an eventual end to this game, and it is not going to be pretty. That which cannot be sustained indefinitely just won't be...

10 posted on 07/03/2012 1:20:57 PM PDT by JustTheTruth
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To: blam
Going into a recession? We have been in one since 2008.
11 posted on 07/03/2012 1:21:12 PM PDT by Fiji Hill (Deo Vindice!)
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To: brivette

Yes, it’s definitely hugh!

He’s a friend of mine, btw...


12 posted on 07/03/2012 1:21:51 PM PDT by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
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To: blam

Really? What do the trend lines look like before a full-up depression/collapse?


13 posted on 07/03/2012 1:22:38 PM PDT by null and void (Day 1259 of our ObamaVacation from reality - Heroes aren't made Frank, they're cornered...)
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To: blam

“Things are great! Vote for Obama!” - Joe Weisenthal


14 posted on 07/03/2012 1:23:11 PM PDT by Dr. Thorne (Don't vote for anyone who worked for Goldman Sachs)
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To: blam

Until we see the employment numbers going up, these ‘charts’ make little difference.


15 posted on 07/03/2012 1:27:03 PM PDT by wolfcreek (A closed eye mentality is the reason for our current reality)
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To: blam
We already are in a recession, we have been in one for 4 years.
Cars wear out and eventually have to be replaced.

16 posted on 07/03/2012 1:30:03 PM PDT by BitWielder1 (Corporate Profits are better than Government Waste)
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To: blam

So, does the data in these charts illustrate that things have not gotten “too much worse” in the last 10 - 12 months?
I would love to see that same data over the last 5 years...


17 posted on 07/03/2012 1:41:19 PM PDT by Repeal The 17th (We have met the enemy and he is us.)
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To: Gay State Conservative
During the campaign our Community Organizer-in-Chief will turn these charts upside down and start singing "happy days are here again".

Substitute "Cum on Feel the Noize" and we're there: CareerBuilder Super Bowl XL Commercial

18 posted on 07/03/2012 1:45:50 PM PDT by Dahoser (Separation of church and state? No, we need separation of media and state.)
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To: paul51
how would one reconcile this with 15% unemployment / underemployment?

Maybe you didn't hear: Emperor Hussein 0bama declared: "Private sector is doing just fine."

/sarc

All of us unemployed folks would beg to differ!

19 posted on 07/03/2012 2:02:51 PM PDT by The Sons of Liberty ("Get that bastard out of MY White House!")
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To: blam

We’re not in a recession but the GDP growth last quarter was 1.9%, a paltry figure.


20 posted on 07/03/2012 2:21:51 PM PDT by Signalman
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