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Sci-fi policing: predicting crime before it occurs
Associated Press via San Francisco Chronicle / SFGate.com ^ | Sunday, July 1, 2012 | GREG RISLING, Associated Press

Posted on 07/01/2012 10:45:54 AM PDT by thecodont

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Los Angeles police are aiming to beat suspects to the scene of a crime by using computers to predict where trouble might occur.

The Los Angeles Police Department is the largest agency to embrace an experiment known as "predictive policing," which crunches data to determine where to send officers to thwart would-be thieves and burglars. Time Magazine called it one of the best inventions of 2011.

Early successes could serve as a model for other cash-strapped law enforcement agencies, but some legal observers are concerned it could lead to unlawful stops and searches that violate Fourth Amendment protections.

In the San Fernando Valley, where the program was launched late last year, officers are seeing double-digit drops in burglaries and other property crimes. The program has turned enough in-house skeptics into believers that there are plans to roll it out citywide by next summer.

(Excerpt) Read more at sfgate.com ...


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society; News/Current Events; US: California
KEYWORDS: crimeprediction; minorityreport; napl; philipkdick; ucla

1 posted on 07/01/2012 10:46:07 AM PDT by thecodont
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To: thecodont

In related news new technology allows for certain people to predict future homosexual activity so they can plan on joining in when the time comes...

2 posted on 07/01/2012 10:54:27 AM PDT by isthisnickcool (Sharia? No thanks!)
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To: thecodont
I have a prediction.

Enforce immigration laws, deport illegal aliens when they are found and....crime will drop.

Dramatically.

When do I get my Time magazine award?

3 posted on 07/01/2012 10:59:24 AM PDT by Regulator
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To: thecodont
So the cops are going to patrol your neighborhood to protect your property from thieves and burglars while you are at work, rather than hiding behind stop signs to issue revenue enhancement forms to you on the way to work?
4 posted on 07/01/2012 11:02:17 AM PDT by Navy Patriot (Join the Democrats, it's not Fascism when WE do it, and the Constitution and law mean what WE say.)
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To: thecodont
I saw an IBM commercial today that was touting this very concept. The voice-over described how predictive algorithms could be used to anticipate crime and stop it before it occurs. The visual was of a city night scape in which was juxtaposed a uniformed officer using his on board computer, and a gang banger scum wad in a remote location. Both took off in their respective vehicles and after a bit of back and forth the officer; leaning against his car, was waiting to give a chin nod to the presumptive criminal as he approached the intended crime scene. At this, the bad guy turned on his heel and you could read, "Curses! Foiled again!", in his body language.

I guess he was supposed to learn his lesson and become a stock broker, but until that happens he's just another skid mark still walking the streets. I wasn't impressed.
5 posted on 07/01/2012 11:17:51 AM PDT by davius (You can roll manure in powdered sugar but that don't make it a jelly doughnut.)
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To: thecodont; MeekOneGOP; Conspiracy Guy; DocRock; King Prout; Darksheare; OSHA; martin_fierro; ...
When do the predictive trials and predictive detention start?


6 posted on 07/01/2012 11:24:01 AM PDT by Slings and Arrows (You can't have Ingsoc without an Emmanuel Goldstein.)
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To: thecodont

This sounds far more ominous than it actually is. And the bottom line is that it won’t matter. Simple logic.

1) Go to any big city, it doesn’t even have to be in the US. Then ask 20 random people in different parts of the city, “What part of the city is the ‘bad’ part of the city?”

If you want to be more scientific about it, chart where in the city crimes are happening. While there is some crime happening just about everywhere, one part of the city will stand out as having a LOT more crime. There are even websites that do this right now.

2) Put a proportionately greater number of police there.

Like him or not, this was Rudy Giuliani’s approach to stopping crime. It worked a block at a time. First flood a block with police who will ticket and arrest for every single offense, large and small.

The bad guys quickly bug out of there, thinking they will return after the police leave. But in their absence, the vacuum they have left behind is filled by other people. The police have talked with everyone there, and know the place backwards and forwards.

The zinger is that once they leave, it takes only a fraction of their number to *keep* that block low crime. And those cops know everyone who is supposed to live there, so strangers stick out. The great number of police then move to an adjacent block.

In Giuliani’s case, “block zero” was Times Square, and it is still tremendously different now than it was before.

“Pre-crime?” No problem. Just go to where the crime is.


7 posted on 07/01/2012 11:27:52 AM PDT by yefragetuwrabrumuy
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To: yefragetuwrabrumuy

Chicago has been using “the Crystal Ball” when JFled was superintendent.

we can see how useful it has been! Zer0!


8 posted on 07/01/2012 11:40:06 AM PDT by ChiMark (chewed up his body for a decade)
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To: Regulator
When do I get my Time magazine award?

Don't hold your breath. They don't give awards to people for logical "clear" thinking.

Awards are given to people who can take a straight forward thought and twist and mangle it (and then) come up with a unique solution to what was originally a simple solution.

9 posted on 07/01/2012 11:40:45 AM PDT by jongaltsr
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To: yefragetuwrabrumuy

” This sounds far more ominous than it actually is. And the bottom line is that it won’t matter. Simple logic.”

It’s actually simpler than you suggest.

Criminals already in custody will commit more crimes at a near certainty. Keep them in custody, and you’ve stopped future crime before it even occurs.

It actually works when tried. No tarot cards or processing power required.


10 posted on 07/01/2012 11:41:43 AM PDT by RFEngineer
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To: thecodont

This sounds like something Joe Friday would do with a map and a box of push pins


11 posted on 07/01/2012 11:52:45 AM PDT by jmcenanly ("The more corrupt the state, the more laws." Tacitus, Publius Cornelius)
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To: yefragetuwrabrumuy
1) Go to any big city, it doesn’t even have to be in the US. Then ask 20 random people in different parts of the city, “What part of the city is the ‘bad’ part of the city?”

Works for me! Good call. Reminds me of a couple decades ago in the civic center of San Francisco, tourists would ask me what direction to walk to Golden Gate Park. I'd tell them no, don't walk a straight line, it goes through a ghetto full of criminals. Some people tried to publish maps showing bad areas, but they were called racist. Cars would drive a straight line and get rocks thrown at them. Some who got out to chase the rock throwers were set upon and robbed (a setup). The ghetto was cleaned up, so it's safer now.

I ask the locals what is a bad area when traveling in new destinations.

12 posted on 07/01/2012 12:42:52 PM PDT by roadcat
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To: Slings and Arrows

Right after the election.


13 posted on 07/01/2012 1:50:08 PM PDT by Former Proud Canadian (Obamanomics-We don't need your stinking tar sands oil, we'll just grow algae.)
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To: thecodont
The Los Angeles Police Department is the largest agency to embrace an experiment known as "predictive policing," which crunches data to determine where to send officers to thwart would-be thieves and burglars. Time Magazine called it one of the best inventions of 2011.

Coming soon, hackers penetrate police "predictive" software and send cops on a merry ride all over LA except where they intend to score big.

Coming next (when this doesn't work) "preventive detention" for those who might commit a crime.

Regards,
GtG

14 posted on 07/01/2012 2:05:38 PM PDT by Gandalf_The_Gray (I live in my own little world, I like it 'cuz they know me here.)
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To: Former Proud Canadian

If Zer0 thinks he can get away with it, yeah.


15 posted on 07/01/2012 2:16:04 PM PDT by Slings and Arrows (You can't have Ingsoc without an Emmanuel Goldstein.)
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To: Slings and Arrows

The big question of my secondary school years was: Will Orwell or Huxley be right, after all? The founding fathers knew the answer: we surrender freedoms willingly.


16 posted on 07/01/2012 4:25:12 PM PDT by golux
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To: yefragetuwrabrumuy
Then ask 20 random people in different parts of the city, “What part of the city is the ‘bad’ part of the city?”

It seems almost a truism, an answer you'll hear is where the MLK-named street is.

17 posted on 07/02/2012 7:51:57 AM PDT by newzjunkey
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