Have third parties won anything in the last 100 years?
No. When one of the two dominate parties implodes another party rises to second party status. The GOP may be reaching that point. From the forced nomination of Romney to it’s inability to adapt to the rise of conservatism, the GOP has resisted change. While I certainly wouldn’t predict when the party will fall, it seems that major changes will need to occur if the GOP is to be a relavent force twenty years from now.