Hang on Galveston...
Posted on 06/23/2012 3:17:36 PM PDT by varina davis
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BUOY OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE DATA...AND PRELIMINARY RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL STORM MAY BE FORMING IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IF THE PLANE IS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION...THEN ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY...AND INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND MUCH OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE SEE MARINE FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
&& HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$ FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
The above was the 2 p.m. tropical forecast. Here is the updated announcement of Tropical Storm Debbie:
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012
...TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF
NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST. DEBBY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A SLOW NORTHWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN ON SUNDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEBBY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WELL EAST OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS 1001
MB...29.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...1 TO 3 FT
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
NEXT ADVISORY
$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE LOUISIANA COAST...
Could use some rain up north here though, so bring 'er on.
This storm is just practice from our detractors who quite possibly can control the weather. Target: Tampa and RNC.
Don’t think you would be so nonplussed if you lived on the gulf coast. A hurricane anywhere along the gulf would be incredibly dangerous.
Weather Underground 5-day forecast has it heading for Texas:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201204_5day.html
The models are pretty divided, but yes, that’s the current thinking. It will likely sit and spin for a while since there are no strong steering currents presently.
Its been raining in Venice Florida for a week on and off...today its been on all day...very seldom do you get an all day rain around here...usually a thunderstorm and an inch of rain in a hour and gone..
Hang on Galveston...
I believe this formed from the remnant of a cold front. Last week was the coolest (a few degrees, but still warm) and driest I can remember for Florida in mid June.
The early 50's is NOT recent by most peoples calculation...unless you are REALLY old. Maybe you are...which could explain your handle...and attitude.
Time for bigger AC unit!!
Buy gas now!
Nope. Formed as a part of the monsoon trof that was in the Caribbean. We've (I'm a meteorologist) been watching it for the better part of a week. The computer models, the global models anyway, have been forecasting it to develop over the Gulf over the weekend and they were right.
I would think Debbie would target Dallas.
May be sound advice. Oil cos. shutting down rigs as I type...Getting nasty out there.
Where do you live in Florida? It’s been pretty wet here in St Augustine (NE FL) for about six weeks, which is actually earlier than our usual “afternoon thundershowers” pattern.
We have had a fair number of nor’easters, in addition to the storms that we say “come from Gainesville”, meaning from the west or the Gulf. It was dry last year but so far, not this year.
This appears to be a very slow moving tropical storm. I recall one in South Flordia a few years ago that dumped 20 inches of ran and did enormous damage.Pays to always be apprised of what these things are doing.
Where to Gulf storms tend to form? In the Gulf itself, or do they more often move into the Gulf as existing hurricanes?
We recently moved to Houston from VA and I’ve never paid a lot of attention to where they originate in this region.
Anyway...that depends. Early in the season they tend to form in the Gulf. By August and Sept. they are more Carri bean/Atlantic storms that track this way.
Talk about wet here in the Keys its been raining since late April.Very unusual for us.
Wet in Orlando area, and some really cool temps for June. Looks like another few days of rain w or w/out TS Debbie
Houston’s been great so far. Not as scenic as where I came from, but the people have been amazingly welcoming for such a sprawling city.
And thanks for the storm info. I’ve always seen them coming way out in the Atlantic but never paid a bit of attention to where they come from in the Gulf!
Nice...
LOL
I think you are correct....Debbie does head for Dallas
I’ve seen slow-moving tropical storms that caused more problems than fast-moving Cat 2 hurricanes. Every storm is dangerous. Some are more dangerous than others.
Here's a nearby weather station chart for June 18th. The dew point was in the 60's and the temperature barely got over 85. The dew point is normally 75 with temperatures over 90. It may not sound like much, but the weather this time of year is very predictable, hot and humid always. The 18th was very comfortable.
Is it possible this trof got a kick from the remnants of a front?
Welcome to Houston, I live in the Sugar Land area.
As mentioned above, beware of tropical storms, as they will flood the crap out of an area. We (in Houston) had Tropical Storm Allison in 2001, and it flooded us like crazy. It was already raining when they called it a tropical storm (unlike hurricanes where you know something is up for days, often many days). I was at work...got an E-Mail that said this rain was a tropical storm, looked outside, and drove home - immediately. Others didn’t and got to spend a few nights at work against their will, as the storm sat on top of us for something like 3 days.
Hurricanes don’t sneak up, and everyone understands them - tropical storms, like Allison can be just a bunch of rain clouds when you go to work...
Please review my post in the following thread as these new type crimes are hitting Houston now.
Five Types Of Looters You Must Prepare For
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/2898747/posts?page=1
My post number 15. Tell your neighbors. :(
So you live in or near Miramar? Friends from Miami have told me it’s been pretty cool and rainy there (relatively speaking).
But I don’t think you get nor’easters. We get them in my part of the state, and they’re pretty awful.
OH No Good Morning America can’t open with under 3.00 gas in South Carlina as this will shut down oil refiners
Does anybody know what happened to Nati Nurse and the Hurricane Ping List?
Yes, they are - both the ones we went through in the Tampa area, anyway ............................ FRegards
I was wondering where NN,Nauti Nurse is as well!
Nope. The low pressure started down in the extreme SE Gulf/NW Caribbean. But before that it was a trof in the Caribbean. The front didn’t reach that far. It finally closed off because of thunderstorms lowering the pressure (latent heat release of condensation in the convective complex). It’s of tropical origins.
Looking at the track, we may get some much needed rain. IIRC, the last Debra brought a lot of flooding to our area.
At this point, I’d even go for some flooding—but that would take a virtual monsoon right now, I think...
Thanks for the reply but this article seems to indicate that it did originate from a remnant cold front:
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) -- An area of vast moisture is becoming better organized over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.The moisture is associated with a broad-stretching area of low pressure, originating from a leftover cold front over the northwestern Caribbean Sea from earlier this week. It has been slowly moving through the Yucatan Channel and approaching the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
The weather's been unusual. At the the end of May, beginning of June it was unusually hot due to an old stalled front that caused the winds to blow from the southwest. Then like I said, earlier this week we had some cooler, drier weather (by about 6 or 7 degrees) due to a front from which this tropical storm formed. For the past few years these fronts have been making it much further south during the beginning of summer than I can remember. Global warming, I guess. /s
Are you on this.. did we miss the ping
I would take some flooding too. Wife just said it was turning more to the north now.
Refreshing this site is getting tiresome—almost as tiresome as our drought is—LOL!
I’ll only believe we are getting rain when I can see it and feel it outside of my house-—that is, if I still know what rain looks like........
I hear you. I keep getting the service unavailable error too, but just keep trying. I’ve noticed a lot of multiple posts.
I was really hoping this storm would park over Texas and fill our lakes back up or get to 75% full.
Northward is the current course but who knows if that is the final course to landfall.
Does, or gives?
Stay safe (and dry)my fellow Floridians!
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