Race for Gabby Giffords’ Old Seat Shapes Up for Hard Fight

ABC News ^ | June 8, 2012 | Elizabeth Hartfield

[Clintonfatigued]

The race, which has been under way since April, is between Republican nominee Jesse Kelly, a former Marine who ran against Giffords in 2010, and Ron Barber, Giffords’ former district director. Barber himself was injured in the shooting outside the Safeway grocery store on Jan. 8, 2011. He was shot in the leg and the cheek.

Giffords has not been very present in Barber’s campaign. She was featured on a mailer paid for by the Democratic Party of Arizona, and she will be campaigning for the candidate this weekend. However, regardless of Giffords level of involvement, the race was never going to be in the bag for Democrats.

“It’s a district that’s pretty much split right down the middle, and one of the reasons that Gabby Giffords was able to get elected and re-elected was that she was a more conservative Democrat,” said Brinton Milward, director of the National Institute for Civil Discourse, who also directs the University of Arizona’s School of Government and Public Policy.

The 8th district, currently located in the southeastern portion of the state and includes part of Tuscan, leans Republican. It has gone red in the past three presidential elections. Giffords narrowly won her re-election in 2010 against Kelly, 30, ultimately defeating him by a margin of about 2 percentage points.

[billorites]

Tuscan?

Anywhere near Tambstone?

[Clintonfatigued]

In spite of the high stakes, the race has mostly been a polite one. Ron Barber has a large fundraising advantage, partly offset by Jesse Kelly’s greater name I.D. Gabrielle Giffords has a lot to do with that, because Kelly doesn’t want to be seen as bashing her while Barber doesn’t want to be seen as exploiting her.

[Cyber Liberty]

Forget it. They’re on a roll. I didn’t know anybody in the race has been to Italy either.

[Izzy Dunne]

Hard Fight

I think I'm feeling incited here.

Why is ABC NOOZ spreading incitement to violence?

[Cyber Liberty]

You wouldn’t know it from the article, but the election is this Tuesday.

[AuH2ORepublican]

That’s not a roll, that’s ciabatta.

[John D]

Jim Kolbe held the seat for a long time. While he was far from conservative, he did put an R behind his name.

[originalbuckeye]

The Redistricting Committee, comprised of two Republicans, two Democrats and one ‘Independent’, already fixed this one for the Democrats. They changed the boundaries to include more Dems than it had before the new Districts were drawn up. The Republicans sued to throw out the redistricting by this ‘impartial’ Committee. The ‘Independent’ turned out to be closely aligned with the Dems. They met in secret, without the Repubs on the Committee and behind closed doors, to draw up these new Districts with the help of a Group that had donated to the Obama campaign. I laugh when I hear about the Republicans gerrymandering in other states. In this red State of Arizona, the Dems pulled the wool over the eyes of the public during this redistricting. And now we are stuck with the new Districts for 10 years. There were two Districts that encompassed Tempe, Scottsdale and Fountain Hills. They were evenly split in their political affiliations but the Republicans won both, Schweikert and Quayle, in 2010. These Districts are now split the other way with Quayle and Schweikert in the same District and running against each other in the Primary. The other new District is now heavily Dem. The Dems really were successful in their redistricting of Arizona!

[catnipman]

I believe its reasonable to assume, absent all other information, that when an alphabet network says that a race will be “hard fought”, then a prima facie case can be made that the GOP is at least somewhat likely to win the seat.

[preacher]

Why did the MainStreamMedia rarely mention that Judge John Rolls, Conservative Republican, was killed at the Tucson shooing?

http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/2011/01/09/20110109john-roll-gabrielle-giffords-arizona-shooting.html

[Republican Wildcat]

That’s why those “bipartisan” commissions set up under the guise of not gerrymandering are a joke if they contain anything other than an even number of Republicans and Democrats and NO ONE else. Adding on the “independent” is the Democrats way of getting another liberal on the commission without them being registered as a Democrat in order to get control of it. Obviously very partisan if they put two incumbents against each other like that.

[The Great RJ]

I am greatly surprised that Giffords didn't just run again and get elected with a huge sympathy vote. South Dakota Senator Tim Johnson suffered a severe stroke in December 2006 that left him absent from his Senate seat until mid 2007. He ran for reelection in 2008, but to conceal the impairment from his stroke made no campaign appearances other than brief highly scripted events, refused to participate in any debates with his challenger and even was absent from a series of major political forums where other members of the South Dakota delegation participated. He was reelected virtually without campaigning. While his health has improved he still will not appear in any forums or debates which would reveal his disabilities. Johnson who was a more moderate Democrat made a hard turn to the left after his stroke and voted for Obamacare and Carbon Cap and Trade both highly unpopular in South Dakota.

[wintertime]

There really is a simple formula for redistricting:

And **equal* number of people per district with perimeters of **equal** dimensions regardless of where the lines fall.

SIMPLE!!!! I could do on my little on I Mac!

The type of fraud that goes on with redistricting makes me sick. I hear the phrase, “Bipartisan Commission”, and I want to throw up.

[Astronaut]

The fact that my beloved Navy named a ship after Giffords makes me want to puke. We name ships after great battles. We name ships after naval heroes. Gabby Giffords wouldn’t be fit to shine the shoes of Admiral Nimitz, yet both have ships that bear their name. Disgusting political correctness at its worst. Does everyone who has the misfortune of getting shot deserve to have a United States warship named after them?

[dadfly]

the tea party and conservatives have been laying the ground work for one of our own in this district for years. that’s a big reason that giffords doesn’t have the stomach for it. jesse dismantled and weakened her last time around, and he started from zero to do it. if he gets enough support, he can win. as always, the dems reserve their big opposition for us conservatives and jesse is the real deal.

this is big. i sense another win coming if we can get out the conservative vote.

[dadfly]

to help go to votejessekelly.com

[xp38]

Hard fight is code for our dim might lose.

[SandRat]

Jesse Kelly vs. Col. Sander’s look alike and who thinks, talks and has a backbone like Col. Klink.

I and my wife have already voted for Kelly.

[TNCMAXQ]

You think Johnson would run yet again in 2014?? I suppose the Dems will beg him too since if he retires this means a possible GOP pickup. If he does run then I hope they don’t let him win uncontested again.