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Polls: Romney leads Obama in Ohio and Florida, tied in Colorado
Hotair ^ | 06/08/2012 | AllahPundit

Posted on 06/08/2012 4:40:14 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

Remember, Team O dropped a cool $25 million in ad spending last month. Their dividend thus far has been ... a series of tightening polls, capped by today's Gallup tracker showing Romney ahead by two nationally. Dude, is this happening?

First, the Colorado news from Rasmussen:

President Obama and Mitt Romney are neck-and-neck in Rasmussen Reports’ first look at the presidential race in Colorado.

A new statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows both the president and his likely Republican challenger receiving 45% support in the Centennial State. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and five percent (5%) are undecided.

Now the obligatory caveat: In the other major poll released today, a multistate survey of Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Colorado from Purple Insights, The One leads Romney by two in Colorado. Given the margin of error, though, that result is statistically indistinguishable from Rasmussen’s result. In fact, open up the PDF and scroll down to page 10 and you'll see that all four states are effectively dead heats, although for the moment Mitt leads in Ohio and Florida and Obama in Virginia and Colorado. The bad news? O actually does ever so slightly better in those last two states than he did in April even though Romney's favorable ratings have improved. The good news? Romney wins independents in both states as well as in Florida. The only state where he loses them is, oddly enough, in Ohio, where he enjoys a three-point lead overall. I'm suspicious of that result, actually, because of the unusual partisan breakdown: In the other three states, Romney is running at around 85/12 over Obama among Republicans, but in Ohio he’s at a mind-blowing 91/3. I know the base is going to line up behind him, but they ain’t lining up that tightly.

The response when people were asked which candidate knows what it takes to create jobs is interesting. Obama’s on the top line, Romney’s on the second, and “not sure” is on the third. From left to right, you’re looking at results from Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida, respectively. No surprise that Romney’s winning this category, but it is a bit surprising that he’s only winning it this narrowly:

The poll was conducted from May 31 to June 5; the miserable May jobs report came out on June 1, so O’s numbers may be slightly inflated here due to the results obtained before the report was announced.

This data set is interesting too, as it touches on views of Romney’s Bain career. Top line is people who think private equity helps the economy, second line is people who think it hurts, third line is “not sure.” Again, from left to right, it’s CO, VA, OH, and FL:

Terrible numbers in Ohio and Florida — the two states where Romney leads. Proof that the Bain messaging isn’t moving the needle, or circumstantial evidence that the Bain messaging might be working to keep Obama in the game?

One more data set for you on jobs, which might help explain why Obama and Romney are neck and neck on who’ll do better to create them. This comes from Gallup. Never forget, my friends: There are an awful lot of low-information voters out there.

Column three is the killer, of course. Overall, a plurality actually rates last Friday’s jobs-report stinkbomb as having been “mixed,” “somewhat positive,” or “very positive”(!) (40 percent, seven percent, and two percent, respectively). Just 42 percent say it was either somewhat or very negative. I don’t know how to explain that except to speculate that a huge chunk of voters simply have no idea of what constitutes healthy job growth. They hear that 60,000 jobs have been created and they think “hey, great” without paying close enough attention to know that that’s far below what we need to bring down unemployment. I think that’ll change later this year as people start focusing more on political news in anticipation of election day, but who knows? Maybe The One will surf to victory on a wave of idiots who think 50,000 jobs a month is pretty goshdarned impressive.

Exit quotation from Fox News’s new poll: “More than half of voters think the administration has mostly failed at creating new jobs (56 percent), stimulating the economy (54 percent) and improving health care (52 percent).”

TOPICS: Front Page News; Politics/Elections; US: Florida; US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: obama; poll; romney
But according to the New York Time's poll watcher, Nate Silver:

Election Forecast: Obama Begins With Tenuous Advantage


The first look at the 2012 FiveThirtyEight presidential forecast has Barack Obama as a very slight favorite to win re-election. But his advantage equates to only a two-point lead in the national popular vote, and the edge could easily swing to Mitt Romney on the basis of further bad economic news.

Mr. Obama remains slightly ahead of Mr. Romney in most national polls, and he has had a somewhat clearer advantage in polling conducted at the state level. Mr. Obama would be about 80 percent likely to win an election held today, according to the model.

However, the outlook for the Nov. 6 election is much less certain, with Mr. Obama having winning odds of just over 60 percent. The forecast currently calls for Mr. Obama to win roughly 290 electoral votes, but outcomes ranging everywhere from about 160 to 390 electoral votes are plausible, given the long lead time until the election and the amount of news that could occur between now and then. Both polls and economic indicators are a pretty rough guide five months before an election.

1 posted on 06/08/2012 4:40:23 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Despite the trends, I still think it will be close.

The Democrat scare tactics will suck in a lot of gullible people (seniors and the poor and sick) and unions and minorities will be mobilized like never before. In 2008, the Democrat base voted out of excitement and hope. This time, they’ll vote out of fear and revenge (for 2010).

There’s only one sector of the Democrat base that seems to have lost their infatuation with The One and that’s the young adult voters who can’t find jobs. The One’s going to have to come up with a lot of gimme’s to get that block of voters to the polls.

2 posted on 06/08/2012 4:58:48 AM PDT by randita
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To: SeekAndFind
When it comes to Obama winning Florida..... Forgit about it.

Look what Romney did to Newt in Florida. Romney OWNS Florida already. Note to Obama...... Forgit about it.

3 posted on 06/08/2012 5:44:09 AM PDT by faucetman ( Just the facts, ma'am, Just the facts)
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To: faucetman


Whoever wins 2 of the 3 wins the presidency.

4 posted on 06/08/2012 6:21:48 AM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
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To: SeekAndFind

Don’t believe the bogus polls. Barry ain’t popular here in Pennsylvania.

5 posted on 06/08/2012 7:23:34 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: SeekAndFind
I also think we need one of the following: Colorado, Nevada, or New Mexico.

Not too long ago, Colorado was in the bag for us. Demographics now make it really tough.

As for Nevada, hopefully the Mormon connection gets that one for Romney.

6 posted on 06/08/2012 7:43:16 AM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: SeekAndFind
Romney leads Obama in Ohio and Florida

Does this take into account:

the illegal alien vote;
the dead vote;
the negro vote;
the stupid vote;
the snowbird vote;
the multiple-college-brat vote;
with UN watchers observing the votes;
with Black panthers guarding the votes; and
with Soros-paid Spaniards counting the votes?

Has the reality of 21st Century American voting been truly taken into account?

7 posted on 06/08/2012 9:31:46 AM PDT by Old Sarge (RIP FReeper Skyraider (1930-2011) - You Are Missed)
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To: Buckeye McFrog

Now that we have our new Voter ID law we may actually be able to beat the voter manufacturing machine in Philly!

8 posted on 06/08/2012 9:55:39 AM PDT by Shadow44
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To: SeekAndFind

I bet they’re throwing things at the White House....

9 posted on 06/08/2012 10:53:26 AM PDT by Tzimisce (THIS SUCKS)
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To: Tzimisce

This stuff is hilarious. Here The Disaster is on the verge of ANOTHER colossal defeat and these fools are trying to pretend it is close. Their pretension (in two senses is hilarious): he is NOT popular, and he has irrevocably aroused the formerly Silent Majority.

He will not win ONE Southern state and I am betting he loses Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and will only squeak by in the brain-dead Illinois. But my guess is the real powers here: Imanual, Madigan are getting pretty fed up with his blunders. The Cook Country Machine is not concerned about ideology, it wants policies and actions which further entrench it not waving the flag for Far Left crap.

I don’t see any of these factors changing between now and the election. Once the Big ship turns it is not easy to quickly reverse course. Wisconsin shows that the ship made a big turn and the course will be starboard for a while.

10 posted on 06/08/2012 12:05:10 PM PDT by arrogantsob (Obama must Go.)
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To: randita
Despite the trends, I still think it will be close.
Obama will not top 45% nationally. You think this month's job growth numbers will improve? Not happening. Obama was at his high water mark months ago.
11 posted on 06/09/2012 9:45:16 AM PDT by Tennessean4Bush (An optimist believes we live in the best of all possible worlds. A pessimist fears this is true.)
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