Romney takes lead in Ohio : Rasmussen Romney 46%, Obama 44%

Rasmussen Reports ^

[sunmars]

Mitt Romney has inched ahead of President Obama in Ohio, taking the lead in the key battleground state after the president has led there for several months.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters shows Romney with 46% support to Obama’s 44%. Six percent (6%) like some other candidate, and five percent (5%) remain undecided.

[rogue yam]

Unlike some on FR I think Romney is a good guy, loves America and wants to do the right thing...I can’t help but think that he himself must lay awake at night sometimes and think to himself “I am going to win this but then what? how can I possibly turn this ship?”

Romney has an opportunity to go down in history.

He frequently says "We're going to turn things around and surprise the world."

I think he means it, and that it is possible. I think the pessimists are wrong.

If we cut regulations, reform the tax code, cut spending, reform entitlements, develop American energy resources, stop subsidizing leftist ideology, close the borders, ignore global warming hysteria, and cut the handouts then this country will come roaring back.

We don't even need to make huge changes, sudden changes, or perfectly conceived changes. We just need a President that clearly states that all of these changes must come, convincingly vows that they will come, and just gets started on all of them.

The American people are far under-performing our potential right now. It is our government that is in the way. Get the government out of the way and we will immediately go back to kicking ass and partying like rock stars, just as God intends.

[rogue yam]

To survive as a Republic, Americans are going to have to give up a huge chunk of their Social Security and Medicare and other freebie communist promises.

I agree. Someone has to tell America the whole truth about Social Security and Medicare.

[rogue yam]

These are outrageously...bad numbers for Obama at this point in the election.

They are indeed!

Woo hoo!

[ConservativeDude]

If we cut regulations, reform the tax code, cut spending, reform entitlements, develop American energy resources, stop subsidizing leftist ideology, close the borders, ignore global warming hysteria, and cut the handouts then this country will come roaring back.

We don’t even need to make huge changes, sudden changes, or perfectly conceived changes. We just need a President that clearly states that all of these changes must come, convincingly vows that they will come, and just gets started on all of them.

The American people are far under-performing our potential right now. It is our government that is in the way.”

Right on. Spoken like a true Reagan conservative! The American people are truly great and all we need is to have a President do exactly the things you mentioned, and we the people will take care of everything else!!!

[Drew68]

Republican Nominee West would nullify Obama’s Race Card, be cleaner than a hound’s tooth, be a true Conservative, be smarter than any known economist, AND be the FAVORITE SON of the key State of Florida!

Good grief, you people are delusional.

You really think the GOP is going to suddenly ditch Romney, who's leading in the polls, and replace him with someone who isn't even running for president and who nobody outside of his congressional district has ever even heard of?

Like I said, delusional. Get a grip.

[MEG33]

Would you nullify the votes in the Primary? I don’t think so..

[Dan Nunn]

The Clintons love America? Who knew.

Compared to Obama, the Clintons are Abraham and Mary Todd Lincoln.

Well, maybe not that far, but Obama is certainly on a whole other level from any other president. Including Jimmy Carter.

[rogue yam]

Right on. Spoken like a true Reagan conservative!

Thank you.

And just like the great Ronaldus Magnus would, I intend to campaign and vote, joyously and confidently, for the GOP nominee.

[Graewoulf]

Rep. Allen West, R. Fla., ( Ret. US Army, Lt. Col.), vs Obama, or Moderate Mitt from Mass. vs Obama: which of the two options has a better chance of beating Obama?

As to the massive advantage that Romney has built up from the Primary Campaign, it now amounts to a coin-flip against Obama.

Romney himself said that he “would be satisfied with getting 50.1 % of the vote in November.” ( What a warrior!)

The Primary was just a test run and Romney came up short. If the RNC wants to beat Obama they have lots of Dark Horses, such as Allen West, who will do much better than Romney, the grandfather of Obama”care.”

If Allen West is the Republican Nominee, he beats Obama in a LANDSLIDE!

If Allen West is Romney’s Veep, Romney wins 60-40 against Obama.

If the Dems DUMP pothead Obama, all bets are off, as American voters in “both” political parties LOVE their Entitlements.

[Political Junkie Too]

Here is the latest update of my Rasmussen state-by-state presidential model.

The model begins with the final results of the 2008 election, and updates those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2008 Electoral College results were Obama 365, McCain 173. My model begins with Obama 364, McCain 174, due to not handling the few split-win states.

Furthermore, 2010 apportionment favored Republicans, leaving us with a starting point of Obama 358, Romney 180.

Below are the states that are still in the polling margin of error. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll, and the second number is the separation from Obama's result.

Watch List:

• Arizona: No Poll (R +8.5%)
• Colorado: No Poll (R -9.0) - just within the default margin of error
• Florida: No Poll (R +1%)
• Georgia: No Poll (R +5.2%)
• Indiana: -0.8% (R +6%)
• Missouri: No Poll (R +3%)
• Montana: No Poll (R +7%)
• Nevada: No Poll (R -8%)
• North Carolina: +5% (R +8%)
• North Dakota: No Poll (R +8.7%)
• Ohio: +4% (R +2%)
• Pennsylvania: -3.2% (R -6%) - moves back within the margin of error
• South Carolina: No Poll (R +9.0%) - just within the default margin of error
• South Dakota: No Poll (R +8.4%)
• Virginia: No Poll (R +1%)
• Wisconsin: No Poll (R -4%)

It's important to note that not enough new polls have been taken yet. These results are a baseline to show future gains.

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Electoral Votes P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Electoral Vote P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 270” – The probability associated with value 270 (the Electoral College majority goal).

Week	GOP Electoral College P10	GOP Electoral College EV	GOP Electoral College P 90	Probability of 270
2008 Election	180	180	180	0.00%
11-May-12	193	220.73	248	0.16%
18-May-12	197	225.09	248	0.23%
25-May-12	206	232.72	256	1.21%
02-Jun-12	216	242.46	266	4.43%

And in the Senate...

This is the latest run of my Rasmussen state-by-state Senate model.

The model begins with the final results of the last Class 1 election, and I will update those results with current Rasmussen state polls as they are published.

Final 2010 Senate results were Republicans taking 47 seats, and Democrats caucusing 53 seats. My model begins with here.

Below is the latest round of state polls. The first number is the change in GOP result from the last poll (or seat election if no prior poll), and the second number is the separation from the Democrat candidate's result.

Watch List:

• Arizona 1: No Poll (R +17%) - waiting for primary results
• Indiana 2: -45.4% (R +0%) - moves back within the margin of error
• Massachusetts 1: No Poll (R +0%)
• Missouri 2: No Poll (R +7%)
• New Mexico 1: +12.7% (R -4%)
• New York 1: No Poll (R -24%) - waiting for primary results
• Ohio 1: +1% (R -5%)
• Pennsylvania 1: +0% (R -5%) - moves back within the margin of error
• Rhode Island 2: No Poll (R -7%)
• Tennessee 2: No Poll (R +2.7%)
• Virginia 2: -3.2% (R +1%)

It's important to note that not enough new polls have been taken yet. These results are a baseline to show future gains.

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP Senate Seats P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP Senate Seats EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP Senate Seats P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 51” – The probability associated with value 51 (the Senate majority goal).
• ”GOP Gain” – The difference between the GOP EV and the current number of seats (47), rounded down.

Week	GOP Senate Seats P10	GOP Senate Seats EV	GOP Senate Seats P90	Probability of 51	GOP Gain
2010 Election	47	47	47	0.00%	0
11-May-12	50	51.24	52	77.01%	4
18-May-12	50	51.24	52	77.01%	4
25-May-12	49	50.75	52	58.53%	3
02-Jun-12	49	50.63	52	54.34%	3

-PJ

[MEG33]

If Allen West is the Republican Nominee, he beats Obama in a LANDSLIDE!

Source?

[Graewoulf]

” - - - Source?”

My humble, but usually correct, opinion.

[gbscott1954]

“The truth is... and even here on FR you can watch the attacks on me in this thread for saying so... but America is over.”

Well, since you have already pronounced America dead, do you mind if all us fool try to fight back and save what we can of what we received from the founding fathers? While I am deeply concerned I do not believe that our nation is finished. If Obama gets reelected it just may however! So many of us believe that our nation began providentially so we also must not discount the hand of divine providence.

[MEG33]

Your humility is so refreshing.
;o)

[Graewoulf]

Thanks.

I see the RINOs marching us down the same well-worn path that McCain took, with the same results.

Yes, it is possible for Romney to win, but at this late date in May Romney is only a coin-flip away from losing in November to Obama, (yeah, THAT pothead, incompetent, arrogant, irresponsible, Marxist Obama).

Romney is clueless as to who he is opposing, and campaigns as if he was trying to win his 6 th Grade Class Presidency at his Prep School. He has NO fire in his belly, cannot utter an inspiring word, or memorable slogan, and keeps on blathering about how “I know how the Economy works.”

Obama could not ask for a more beatable opponent!

To better the odds, Romney MUST choose, or be assigned, a Veep that stands head and shoulders above Romney. McCain did just that by choosing Palin, and Romney should do that with West.

The first 4 years of Obama is what I call “Obamanation.”

The next 4 years of Obama is what I predict (IMHBUCO) will be called “Obamarule.” We barely will have the “right” to breathe.

If Romney is probably going to lose to the worst Occupant of the White House EVER, then let us insist that the RNC choose a Nominee who can soundly beat Obama.

Sen. Jim DeMint, Rep. Allen West and many others could easily defeat Obama in a HUGE Landslide, IMHBUCO, of course.

[arrogantsob]

That all sounds good but, unfortunately it runs aground when you consider no body knows who he is. Could he carry the state of Ohio? Not likely. It isn’t as if I have a good alternative though.

[LibLieSlayer]

Oh hell yes... I will continue to fight and if we do go down... I will be there helping to rebuild our Republic. I am just looking at things realistically. We have no one in DC serious about making real cuts that will save our country. It will take massive cuts totally TRILLIONS over decades to heal our economy. We owe somewhere close to 80 Trillion dollars when you look out 20 years into the future and the interest we are paying now is crushing our bottom line and it is growing exponentially. We cannot survive without massive cuts and eliminating some entitlement programs. WHO in DC today is even talking about that? They talk about cuts in spending but that is just not going to get it. Social Security can never be a retirement fund as it has been used. SSI is now eating us alive and many are not disabled that are collecting it. You tell me how you are going to save our Republic without these severe cuts? WHO is going to start the process? mitt romney?

LLS

[MEG33]

They did not run..Romney has the votes..

I would crawl over broken glass to vote to beat Obama..and I will vote accordingly...for the Republican nominee.
.
My guys did not win..I will not pout and withold my vote from the nominee in November.

I love America too much to enable one more day of the Obama administration.

[GlockThe Vote]

Didnt you hear? The more nobel, holy, principled, and sacred thing to do is to enable Obama 4 more years to collapse America so that in 2016 some magical superhero conservative will rise from the ashes and bring us to our former glory!

[Aetius]

West may be more popular with the base, but he wouldn’t do any better with black voters. By the time the media and NAACP types got done with him, he’d be the ultimate Uncle Tom.

I doubt he’d do better with so called moderates and independents either, as the media love that helps Obama with those groups would be completely absent for West.