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Why the Job Numbers Are So Bad(Recovery Unemployment: 4/5 is a Drop in Labor Force Participation)
CNBC ^ | 4 May 2012 | Peter Morici

Posted on 05/28/2012 7:14:46 AM PDT by Son House

The unemployment rate fell to 8.1 percent because another 522,000 adults quit looking for work and are no longer counted.

In the weakest recovery since the Great Depression more than four-fifths of the reduction in unemployment has been accomplished by a dropping adult labor force participation rate—essentially, persuading adults they don’t need a job, or the job they could find is not worth having.

In the first quarter, growth slowed to 2.2 percent and was largely sustained by consumers taking on more debt, and additions to business inventory.

Gains in manufacturing production have not instigated stronger improvements in employment largely because so much of the growth is focused in high-value activity. Assembly work, outside the auto patch, remains handicapped by the exchange rate situation with the Chinese yuan.

And concerns about the durability of the recovery and health care costs when Obama Care is fully implemented make employers very cautious about adding to headcount.

Overall, the situation with the yuan is the single largest impediment to more robust growth in manufacturing and its broader multiplier effects for the rest of the economy; the Obama Administration indicated it has no intention of challenging China on this issue, but presumptive GOP standard bearer Mitt Romney promises a harder line.

Factoring in those discouraged adults and others working part time for lack of full time opportunities, the unemployment rate is about 14.5 percent. Adding college graduates in low skill positions, like counterwork at Starbucks, and the unemployment rate is likely closer to 18 percent

Growth is weak and jobs are in jeopardy, because temporary tax cuts, stimulus spending, large federal deficits, expensive but ineffective business regulations, and costly health care mandates do not address structural problems holding back dynamic growth and jobs creation—the huge trade deficit and dysfunctional energy policies.

(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012election; depression; election2012; force; job; jobs; kenyanbornmuzzie; labor; labormarket; mittromney; numbers; unemployment
Most news outlets aren't going to expose the truth why the Unemployment Rate went down, preferring to go on with the narrative of a 'Recovery' that never started after the recession was officially over, June 2009.

And that also allows Democrats the opportunity to speak as if the delusion their economic policies are improving job opportunities is true.
1 posted on 05/28/2012 7:14:59 AM PDT by Son House
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To: Son House

Words not seen in the MSM since Nov 2008:

McJobs
Recovery for Wall $treet but not Main Street
Homeless problem

I’m sure there are plenty of others....


2 posted on 05/28/2012 7:22:35 AM PDT by nascarnation
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To: Son House

That has begun to change when it went to 8.1. I was stunned to hear separate radio news stories (CBS & AP) that did mention the steep rise in people not being counted because they ran out of benefits. One mentioned the larger number of those dropping out of the workforce and explained how it affected the unemployment numbers.


3 posted on 05/28/2012 7:25:19 AM PDT by mazda77 (and I am a Native Texan)
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To: Son House

I can’t decide who is more to blame Jefferson, Reagan or Bush II?
Certainly not his O’liness???


4 posted on 05/28/2012 7:37:51 AM PDT by Leep (Enemy of the Statist)
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To: mazda77

Yes there is some news outlets that wish to have credibility in the future by mentioning this, but are they using it to counter any Democrat claims of an economic expansion? Mostly a rhetorical question, time will tell.


5 posted on 05/28/2012 7:42:54 AM PDT by Son House (The Economic Boom Heard Around The World => TEA Party 2012)
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To: Son House
shadowstats unemployment
6 posted on 05/28/2012 7:51:44 AM PDT by Texas Fossil (Government, even in its best state is but a necessary evil; in its worst state an intolerable one)
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To: Son House
http://www.shadowstats.com/imgs/charts/employment/employment-ratios.gif
7 posted on 05/28/2012 7:55:01 AM PDT by Texas Fossil (Government, even in its best state is but a necessary evil; in its worst state an intolerable one)
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To: Son House

Unusual. Normally CNBC is agitprop for Obama. Something else might be up in re the timing of this.

Exhibit A:

http://www.rt.com/news/bilderberg-power-us-obama-932/

The Bilderberg Meeting is this week in Virginia, May 30 - June 3.

I’m sure if they wanted Romney to win, he would. I’m sure they approve of him.

If so, they would get their lackey media orgs to start dissing Obama. He has turned out to be such a debacle, that the BB’s might want someone more respectable (at least on the surface) in there.


8 posted on 05/28/2012 7:59:46 AM PDT by Eccl 10:2
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To: nascarnation
Words not seen in the MSM since Nov 2008:

McJobs

Recovery for Wall $treet but not Main Street

Homeless problem

Are you implying the New York Times, Washington Post, CNN, NBC, ABC, and every newspaper in the country except one are BIASED? I'm shocked. Shocked you would think such a thing.... /s

9 posted on 05/28/2012 8:11:57 AM PDT by GOPJ ( "A Dog In Every Pot" - freeper ETL)
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To: Son House
"It cannot happen here!"

But the trouble is that IT IS happening here in the open right under our noses. The Administration routinely lies to us in their propaganda. And the MSM allows it without a whimper.
The Administration routinely threatens all elements of society (even SCOTUS) to "do what we say". And the MSM allows it without a whimper.
The Administration routinely removes Constitutional Authority from Congress and gives it to unconstitutional czars. And the MSM allows it without a whimper.
The Administration is routinely attempting to give away constitutional Sovreignty to foreign and international bodies. And the MSM allows it without a whimper.

"It cannot happen here!" Oh! yes it can.

10 posted on 05/28/2012 8:20:40 AM PDT by I am Richard Brandon
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To: Son House

I understand this completely, however, I heard one economist say that MOST of these labor force dropouts, would have happened anyways, no matter the state of the economy or the president, because it was a large group of aging baby boomers dropping off the rolls.


11 posted on 05/28/2012 10:17:36 AM PDT by Paradox (I want Obama defeated. Period.)
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To: Paradox

The Baby Boom of 1946 to 1964 have just started retirement age, the big wave is yet to come.


12 posted on 05/28/2012 11:35:25 AM PDT by Son House (The Economic Boom Heard Around The World => TEA Party 2012)
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To: Paradox
Well, if the country weren't bankrupt that would be a bright spot for future improvement in unemployment, boomers retiring. Not so hot for residential real estate but a positive for job seekers.

However, retirement age boomers I know aren't retiring because they've had their 401K plans decimated over the past four years and they're afraid Social Security won't last, so they continue to work.

These are all in the private sector, obviously. Public sector has ludicrously plush pensions on top of double dipping and deliberately padded last year earnings to elevate those plush pensions even further away from anything approaching reality, speaking of bankrupt.

It can't end well. It may hold together for years, but there is a reckoning coming.

13 posted on 05/28/2012 11:50:03 AM PDT by RegulatorCountry
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To: I am Richard Brandon

MSM = Pravda

Hmm, am I impugning Pravda?


14 posted on 05/28/2012 1:03:25 PM PDT by ChildOfThe60s (If you can remember the 60s....you weren't really there)
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To: ChildOfThe60s

Even Pravda could not do this....

March 15: Reported - 351,000, Revised - 353,000
March 22: Reported - 348,000, Revised - 364,000 Reported - down, Actual - up ***
March 29: Reported - 359,000, Revised - 363,000 Reported - down, Actual - down
April 05: Reported - 357,000, Revised - 367,000 Reported - down, Actual - up ***
April 12: Reported - 380,000, Revised - 388,000 Reported - up, Actual - up
April 19: Reported - 386,000, Revised - 389,000 Reported - down, Actual - up ***
April 26: Reported - 388,000, Revised - 392,000 Reported - down, Actual - up ***
May 03: Reported - 365,000, Revised - 368,000 Reported - down, Actual - down
May 10: Reported - 367,000, Revised - 370,000 Reported - down, Actual - up ***
May 17: Reported - 370,000, Revised - 372,000 Reported - no change, Actual - up ***
May 24: Reported - 370,000, Revised - TBD Reported - down, Actual - TBD

So out of the last 10 weeks 6 weeks were INCORRECTLY reported indicating a false favorable trend. Of the remaining 4 weeks one was correctly reported down and the other three were up - and correct reported as so. So in 10 weeks you have had 9 weeks of ‘positive’ headlines when in fact there has only been 3. And a couple of those were very slim margins. If you only read the headlines since the ‘4 year record low’ in March you would think that the unemployment was a non-issue.


15 posted on 05/28/2012 4:23:02 PM PDT by bluecat6 ( "A non-denial denial. They doubt our heritage, but they don't say the story is not accurate.")
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