I am not voting for Virgil Goode to send a message. I am voting for him because out of the 3 people running, he is the best. Romney has little influence on whether I vote for Goode or not. Romney and Obama are basically twins in most issues.
HOWEVER, if some ABO conservative who is supporting Romney only because he's been shoved down conservative throats gets to Oct 31 and sees Romney down 3+ points (approximately the MOE in a large sample such as right before the election) in the polls, then it makes sense for that guy not to WASTE his vote on Romney. Why vote for a liberal who is losing?
Instead, that ABO conservative would send a powerful message by voting for a real conservative, Goode, rather than waste a vote on a losing Romney.
By their own logic, the only reason they are voting for Romney is because he has a “better” chance than any 3rd party or write-in. If Romney is losing by a significant difference at election time, then it makes sense to NOT waste a vote, but instead to send a conservative, COUNTABLE message by voting for Goode.
The ABO’s can, of course, set their own threshold. Maybe they want to use 5+ points or 7+ points. If it's 7+, I guarantee that Romney is losing.