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Posted on 05/22/2012 9:08:40 PM PDT by Steelfish
NBC/WSJ poll: Obama, Romney Locked In Tight Contest
By Mark Murray Despite a volatile and eventful past few weeks in the early presidential contest, President Barack Obama continues to hold a small – and slightly narrowing – lead over Mitt Romney, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.
But given the public’s pessimism about the economy and the direction of the country, Romney finds himself well within striking distance in an election that has the potential to be as close as the 2004 race between Republican George W. Bush and Democrat John Kerry.
“Obama’s chances for re-election ... are no better than 50-50,” says Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this survey with Republican Bill McInturff.
“So much has happened, and so little has changed,” Hart adds. “And it tells you this is a dead-even race.”
NBC/WSJ poll: Obama's gay-marriage announcement a 'draw' This poll – which was taken after the anniversary of Osama bin Laden’s death, Obama’s announcement in support of gay marriage, fresh economic worries about Europe, and last month’s tepid jobs report – shows the Democrat leading Romney by four points among registered voters, 47 percent to 43 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at firstread.msnbc.msn.com ...
Registered voters.
It's likely a lot worse than that for Obama. So what do the internals show? PMSNBC polled 10 to 15% more Dems than Rs... I bet.
QF4a Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as (ROTATE:) a Democrat, a Republican, an independent, or something else? (IF "DEMOCRAT" OR "REPUBLICAN," ASK:) Would you call yourself a strong (Democrat/Republican) or not a very strong (Democrat/Republican)?
(IF "NOT SURE," CODE AS "NOT VERY STRONG DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN.") (IF "INDEPENDENT," ASK:) Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party, closer to the Democratic Party, or do you think of yourself as strictly independent? (IF "NOT SURE," CODE AS "STRICTLY INDEPENDENT.")
Strong Democrat ........................... 21
Not very strong Democrat ............. 8
Independent/lean Democrat .......... 15
Strictly Independent ....................... 16
Independent/lean Republican ........ 14
Not very strong Republican ........... 7
Strong Republican ......................... 15
Other (VOL) ................................... 3
Not sure ....................................... 1
1,000 adults - 250 cell phones
Looks skewed - as usual - when you add “strong” and “not very strong” for each party:
Strong Democrat .....................21
Not very strong Democrat .............8
Independent/lean Democrat .......... 15
Strictly Independent ................16
Independent/lean Republican ........ 14
Not very strong Republican ...........7
Strong Republican ...................15
Other (VOL) ..........................3
Not sure .............................1
Thus by adding the two criteria you have a poll that essentially is 29% D and 22% R thus erasing Obama’s lead especially when most polls show Independents well in Romney’s corner.
NYT Reporter Goes To Romney's Church, Seeks Dirt From Worshipers
.
Don’t forget: Romney sucks.
Just a reminder.
It’s not even registered voters. It’s just 1000 citizens who answered the phone.
This poll is whacked!! All other polls show Romney leading among Ind but this one shows Obama ahead by about 14 points. Not only that but if you look at Obama’s leads among Women and the other sub groups you must ask how this race can be as close as NBC says it is in this poll?
It is a poll among adults to boot.
Our sensationalist media can’t just admit it will be Romney; they have to pretend there is a race so people watch their meaningless blather (especially the advertisers that pay for it).
Bingo!
This election won’t be close, Romney is going to win in a landslide.
Not even -- "1000 adults."
I've got younger family members who are registered to vote yet have never voted in their young lives. Yet if they took a call from a pollster, they'd say they are for Obama because they are still young and naive. Fortunately, they wouldn't be able to find their way to a voting booth on election night.
Likely voters - those who have actually voted in at least the last three elections and intend to do so again, are the only voters that really matter for polling purposes.
Over-sampled Dems, yet polls show significant decline in those identifying with Dem party. GIGO poll.
Dem - 44%
Rep - 36%
Ind/Other - 20%
So... if you use a 50/50 split, Romney is up by about 2.
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