Posted on 05/17/2012 5:55:20 PM PDT by neverdem
Nebraska state Sen. Deb Fischer wrested the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate from Attorney General Jon Bruning Tuesday night, riding a burst of late momentum to pull off an unexpected victory. Her stunning come-from-behind performance amounts to a warning flare about the volatility of the primary season and the unintended impact of outside groups. Fischer, a rancher and little-known state lawmaker, maintained a positive, above-the-fray tone while Bruning and state Treasurer Don Stenberg consistently traded blistering barbs. But she also benefited from a flurry of outside spending against Bruning, the front-running establishment favorite for more than a year who watched his polling lead evaporate during the final week of the campaign. The victory sends Fischer to the general election as a favorite over former Sen. Bob Kerrey, who easily disposed of four lesser-known opponents for a shot at the open seat being left vacant by retiring Sen. Ben Nelson. Nebraska is a must-win for Republicans if they are to acquire the four pickups necessary to flip control of the Senate this fall. (Also on POLITICO: Palin: Fischer's no 'good old boy') Democrats argued that Fischer’s surprising win provides with them a better chance at holding the seat, mainly because she’s largely untested and undefined. But public polling taken ahead of the primary has shown Fischer defeating Kerrey by double digits. Republicans outnumber Democrats by about 170,000 and presumptive nominee Mitt Romney is expected to rout President Barack Obama in the state. Romney also cruised to a primary win Tuesday night — rolling up three-quarters of the vote — but the state’s 32 delegates will actually be selected at the state convention in July. (See also: 10 facts about Deb Fischer) Until last week, the Senate contest had been mostly a sleepy affair, with Bruning holding a double-digit polling lead over his two nearest rivals for months.
Outside groups like the Club for Growth and Jim DeMint’s Senate Conservative Fund began chipping away at Bruning’s favorability through a string of hard-hitting attack ads, with the goal of boosting Stenberg. But the unintended effect was lifting Fischer, a poorly funded candidate who managed to stay out of the mud. Following the release of her own internal poll showing her surging, Fischer scored endorsements from Sarah and Todd Palin and Rep. Jeff Fortenberry. Then came the dagger for Bruning. A brutal $200,000 weekend television ad flight paid for by TD Ameritrade founder and Chicago Cubs co-owner Joe Ricketts that revisited Bruning’s questionable financial interests and cast a cloud over his character. The closing poll of the race — taken Monday by Public Policy Polling — showed Fischer surging into the lead by 4 points. With 80 percent of precincts counted, Fischer was holding a 4-point advantage over Bruning after he held a similar lead earlier in the night. Stenberg, who was making his fourth try for a Senate seat, lagged in third place. Fischer’s victory comes just a week after another unlikely insurgent — Indiana state Treasurer Richard Mourdock — ended the 36-year Senate career of Dick Lugar. While her victory can’t be claimed by outside groups, it will stoke further anti-establishment fear among front-runners sitting on seemingly comfortable polling leads. Further downballot, all three Nebraska congressional incumbents easily won re-nomination Tuesday. GOP Rep. Lee Terry, a seven-term incumbent, fended off a handful of opponents, including former University of Nebraska football player Brett Lindstrom, with a little more than 60 percent of the vote. All House incumbents running in Oregon, Idaho, and Nebraska skated to primary wins over underfunded and lesser-known opponents. Idaho Rep. Mike Simpson defeated Chick Heileson, a tea party activist who unsuccessfully challenged Simpson in 2010 and was seeking a rematch. Romney also scored an easy win in the Oregon GOP primary. Alex Isenstadt contributed to this report.
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© 2012 POLITICO LLC |
Notice that they go out of their way to try and minimize the effect of Palin's endorsement.
Excuse me?
...Fischer scored endorsements from Sarah and Todd Palin...
Pretty much any Sarah Palin endorsement is a Tea Party endorsement. (Except for her obligatory McCain endorsement, anyway...)
Deb Fischer’s surge was one of the greatest political comebacks in electoral history. I think she’ll make a great Senator.
Someone’s beeber was stuned beyond belief and it wasn’t Fischer’s!
Clearly, the Tea Party is dead.... 8)
I’m guessing it’s the spray tan!
Kerry is the opposite of wine....he doesn’t age well.
Vinegar.
Yes sir, he is in the latter stages of liberalism. His affliction has not totally ravaged the body yet but the mind has been lost.
Yes sir, he is in the latter stages of liberalism. His affliction has not totally ravaged the body yet the mind has been lost.
Rasmmusen
Thursday, May 17, 2012
State Senator Deb Fischer holds an 18-point lead over Democrat Bob Kerrey in the first Rasmussen Reports survey of the Nebraska U.S. Senate race since her upset win in last week’s state Republican primary.
Fischer 56%
Kerry 38%
Just 5 percent say they’re undecided or support a different candidate.
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From the Daily Beast:
If Palin picks her spots through the rest of this cycle as well as she did in Nebraska, she might, without spending a dime as a presidential candidate, be the second biggest name in Tampa.
(Note: lots of snark from the writer, but the truth do out)
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I canvassed for Deb in the final two weeks of the primary. A week before the Palin endorsement, a lot of “polite poker faces”. The week after Palin’s endorsement, much-much more receptive. I had some close political friends who were undecided said that the Palin endorsement “sealed the deal”.
Right before the primary, there were a lot of undecideds (24%) and lot of “soft supporters” for Bruning, Stenberg and Flynn. Once the Palins announced their support for Deb, there was an immediate domino effect of more endorsements (Congressman Fortenberry) and money from Pete Ricketts. What I experienced was a bunch of “light switches” being flipped in the last two weeks of the campaign. Deb was beginning to surge before the Palin endorsement, but Palin’s nod added gasoline to the sparks.
Like a perfectly timed arrow shot, all of the variables lined up perfectly for a last-minute, bullseye victory shot!!!
One last thing...for any Demmies thinking Deb will be an easy mark, check this out.
Senate primary vote totals:
All Democrat votes: 80,420
All Republican votes: 192,285
I can hardly call getting a plurality of 41% "stunning." In other states that would put her into a runoff election for the nomination. This is exactly how Sharon Angle got the Republican nomination in NV in 2010. I think it's idiotic to win a primary nomination with anything less than 50% + 1 vote.
Yes sir, he is in the latter stages of liberalism. His affliction has not totally ravaged the body yet but the mind has been lost.
That’s excellent!
I can hardly call getting a plurality of 41% “stunning.”
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Well PC, so nice of you to comment so far up north on my state.
I posted this to you on another discussion, but I’ll post it again for those on this thread.
In Nebraska, for down-ticket races, it’s a plurality that wins. This was suppose to be a slam dunk for Bruning with his money, name recognition and ground game. While Bruning and Stenberg slammed it out with hit ads, Fischer quietly took her ground game and watched the top two bloody each other. Only in the very end (when Deb was surging) did Bruning mount any kind of attack ads on Fischer.
To show how much distance she made up consult RCP:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/nebraska_senate_race.html
In early May, Bruning was up by 16 points. The pundits and press were already gearing up for a Bruning vs Kerry fight.
A state senator going against the states' attorney general and treasurer, and where the GOP voter registration gives the advantage over the rats by 170,000, I'd say it's nothing to sneeze at.
“Well PC, so nice of you to comment so far up north on my state.”
Nice State you have there, from down South in Texas. There is clearly much to be admired about the Nebraska people clearly they did not agree with what Bill did on their behalf.
I'd still like to see those states that don't have primary runoffs to switch to runoffs. If what you say about Fischer is true, she probably would have prevailed in a runoff.
In my congressional district in 2010 there was a runoff, and the candidate who came in second in the first round ended up winning the nomination in the runoff. He showed himself to be a superior campaigner and went on to defeat a 14-term incumbent whom many had thought was unbeatable.
One more good conservative in the senate to keep President Romney on the straight and narrow and to help President Palin revive our nation.
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