Skip to comments.Election 2012: North Carolina President North Carolina: Romney 51%, Obama 43%
Posted on 05/16/2012 5:43:50 AM PDT by icwhatudo
Mitt Romney has moved out to an eight-point lead over President Obama in North Carolina after the two men were virtually tied a month ago.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Tar Heel State shows the putative Republican nominee earning 51% of the vote to Obamas 43%. Two percent (2%) like some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.
Thats a big change from last month when Romney posted a narrow 46% to 44% lead over the president in Rasmussen Reports first survey of the race in North Carolina. Democrats have signaled North Carolinas importance as a key swing state by deciding to hold their national convention in Charlotte this summer.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
I would expect nothing less, Obama has a hard ceiling at 43-45%, he’s got ZERO chance of going over that amount of the national popular vote, short of a dramatic change such as war or something along those lines. Obama has no chance of winning a 2 way race against ANYONE.
The question isn’t will Obama lose, its how badly will he lose and how many democrats will go down with him.
Remember, many of the dems who voted for Obamacare in the senate are finally going to face the voters this fall for the first time, don’t think for one minute that they weren’t going to pay a price for it.. combine that with Obama’s antics and abject failures, and not only will the Senate be Republican controlled after the election, it very likely will be controlled and filabuster proof.
Obama has led the Democrats down the road to obliteration at least for a while. Its going to be an absolute shelacing for the Dems in Nov.
Awaiting the report zer0 has AIDS to be broadcast.
Obama will be lucky if he carries eight to ten states. Romney will win in a landslide. Note; the winds of change are blowing. Both Nebraska & Indiana will send Tea Party Republicans to the U.S. Senate. Pubbies should be pressing every Democrat across the country to make verbally public their stand on gay marriages. Especially in the state of Ohio, where liberal Democrat Sherrod can beaten about the head and shoulders on the gay marriage issue. Pubbies, for goodness sake, get with the program. Destroy both Obama and the entire Democrat Party politically in November, 2012. Repeat of 2010 mid-term romp will be repeated, even stronger, this year.
I agree a candidate who could take the idological fight to the people and articulate it will would get 60%+ of the popular vote. However Romney as much as he doesn’t excite anyone will get 55%+ of the vote.
Obama has a ceiling of 43-45%, if he makes absolutely no mistakes he won’t get more than that much of the vote. He can’t. So, short of something drastically changing, 3rd party candidate out of nowhere, or war or natural disaster or something, Mickey Mouse would beat OBama by ~ 55-45. Romney will run a safe boring campaign and beat him in that range.
Someone like a Gingrich who would have made it completely ideological battle every step and could articulate it would have I agree made it a 60-40 or 65-35 victory. But wasn’t to happen.
Great post. Btw, If this keeps up it will be a landslide, you heard it here first.
Oh he’s going to hold some states in 12, the population distribution makes it next to impossible to get an electorial victory like Reagan anymore. Even if you win 55-60% of the popular vote you won’t wind up with the lopsided electorial college votes (at least in states) like you used to.
However, I feel that right now, NC, IN and OH are going red, I also believe WI is likely to be red. FL I suspect will go red, but its too early to say, and VA I would like to think to will as well, but I haven’t seen any polling for these states yet. I think PA is in play as well and NM and NV. IA perhaps. I’d want to see some polling out of the new england states, but I doubt you are going to see muc if any movement at least EC vote there.
However overall popular vote I think is going to easily be in the 55-45 range for Romney. Had we had a strong conservative candidate with the ability to articulate the view and take the fight to Obama, I’d say we would win by 60-40 or 65-35, but since we don’t I think we have a safe relatively boring campaign with Romney just trying not to make any mistakes and taking the guaranteed 55-45 win.
Correct. Conservatives will OWN Romney on appointments to the federal judiciary. He cannot afford any risk of a primary challenge in 2016.
Romney will be superb on judges and for those unaware, Judge Robert Bork is leading his judicial selection team.
I believe WI will be solidly red this election cycle, but I havent seen any polling from the state, so I havent predicted this yet, other than I think it will go red.
See my post #11 in this thread for a link.
The winner of 2012 will have to win 2 out of the following 3 states (it’s as simple as that ):
Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida. The rest are details.
Obama has led the Democrats down the road to obliteration at least for a while. Its going to be an absolute shelacing for the Dems in Nov.
I pray that you are right.
Obviously more disinformation from RinoRas!
But that's about as far as I can take it. To see some posters on FR actually suggesting a vote for Obama, or cheering at any news indicating an Obama win....that frankly turns my stomach.
“This 65 to 35 meme to me just sounds like sour grapes coming from freepers who still cant get over the fact their guy or woman lost in the primaries.”
My percentages were not meant to convey I will not vote for Romney. I voted for McCain too as much as I knew he was a loser even with Palen buoying his numbers up.
I despise the jug eared jackass enough I would crawl over glass to vote against him in fact.
Perhaps my 65% was a touch exhuberent, but it could have easily been a high 58% in my opinion. As far as the fag, minority, and socialist vote, most of them are already registered as dems and the dem registration is what, 35% or so.
I agree with one other writer who said these last 4 years (of my 67 year life) have been the worse economically than I have ever encountered. That along with watching the country go down in esteem is very disconcerting.
So, the upshot is, I hope Romney wins but he is not a very strong candidate.
>> 51% isn’t that impressive <<
I’d say you’re looking at the wrong number. The poll shows that the Big Ø has only 43% — his bedrock base.
So let’s consider matters this way:
Given that “undecideds” typically break 2-to-1 against an incumbent, I calculate that the true figures look at least as high as 55% for Romney — a total that generally would qualify as a “landslide” for most political analysts.
Now let’s hope Rasmussen will make his way soon up into Virginia, where the percentages ought to be very close to those for NC, maybe just a point or two lower for Romney.
Yep - Romney's not my guy, but it does my heart good to see the "unelectable" looking more electable than the big zero.
More fuel on the fire!!! Romney will win every Southern state, including North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, hands down. Ohio will go Republican, and...on & on. Obama will take many Democrats down with him. Be prepared, ladies and gentlemen to shift gears. My strategic mind tells me the Clintons (Obama haters both) will move effectively to get Obama to withdraw or resign the as POTUS immediately. The Clintons will argue, with true substance, that Obama is a failed POTUS who will not only destroy himself politically, but he will destroy the Democrat party for years to come. Then what, Hillary becomes the POTUS gal. the Democrats are in panic and might move to save their own skins.
Loyal Black American voters will be left adrift at sea, put there first by Plantation Owner,Obama and then by the Clintons, who will tell them, with Obama gone, Hillary is the only game in town. Sad....these people have done themselves in politically for many years to come. Lesson: Never put all your eggs in one basket!!!
While I never turn down divine intervention, I don’t think prayers will be the reason.
The reasons are very simple, Obama won on a mandate over Bush. Bush, did a horrible PR job defending himself from repeated and endless attacks from the left.. because of this by the end of his second term, the country didn’t have Bush fatique, it had Bush derangement.
Under that cloud Obama won, and won big, though honestly at least in my state, it was from more of a depressed republican turnout than anything else.
Obama didn’t win because the contry loved OBama, though the press certainly want you to think that, he won because the country voted lack of confidence in Bush.
Now in ‘12, Obama has to run as Obama, and he’s going to try his best not to, and ignore his record and try to personally attack and destroy, but its not going to work. He’s got a record now, he’s no longer a guy with a lifetime of “present” votes.. he’s a guy who has a record of radical liberalism and failed policies, who continues to this day to push for even more radical things.
He’s done. Every single national poll I have seen for the last 6 months, when you look into the internals shows that the electorate by and large wants this joker gone. The recognize the mistake he has been and most would crawl over broken glass and then roll through salt flats to vote him out.
This election is a referendum on Obama, and unlike Clinton who had a 3rd party to help him win plurality, which would be enough, that isn’t part of this cycle, its one on one, flat our referendum on Obama, and Obama has a peak of 43-45% TOPS. That means he doesn’t make a SINGLE MISTAKE... and I don’t see that happening.
The guys a narcissist and he’s a pathetically small man, who is so far out of his league that he won’t be able to handle the realities of the writing on the wall. The more obvious it is he is going to lose, the more desperate in spiteful he’s going to become, the more spiteful he acts, the lower his support will go.
You aren’t dealing with a well rounded adult here, you are dealing with an overgrown teenager, who’s been pandered to his entire adult life. He’s not going to go gracefully and he’s not going to be able to contain his invented “coolness” when the sharks recognize the blood in the water and start to circle.
This election cycle is going to be NASTY, and its going to be bitter, and ugly. There won’t be any name or lie too big for the left to try to use to prop this idiot up, but its not going to be enough.
At best Obama was at 43-45% and that was before he decided to openly state what everyone paying attention already knew, he doesn’t believe states have the right to determine what a marriage is. That stand is going to cost him election day, yes it will motivate a portion of his base, and probably get him some big $$ from the gay lobby who will be energized, but that won’t remotely be enough to counteract the sleeping giant he just awakened.
Best Obama could hope for was 43-45% of the popular vote, his doubling down on radical leftist stands, probably just sunk him to 35-40% if the republican play the line right, but they can’t overplay. Overplay could backfire. And Personally I feel this whole gay marriage is just a amateurish attempt at rope a dope.. Something I think Santorum would have fallen for hook line and sinker, but I don’t think the Romney camp will fall for it. The voters however will not forget this. Obama has just argued the federal government should take a stand that no electorate, not even the bluest of blue California has passed when put to a public vote.
The guy’s toast, his signature legislation is about to be declared unconstitutional, he’s going to leave office with fewer people employed that the day his term started (not even Jimmy Carter could pull that one off) etc etc.
The campaign against Obama is pretty cut and dry and doesn’t need fancy ads, The economy has been burning for 4 years, and what’s Obama done? Tried to federalize 1/7 of teh US economy and fought for gay marriage... He’s fiddled while rome burned without a clue or a care.
His signature legislative accomplishment is the most unpopular bill in US history, its even MORE unpopular now than the day they passed it.
Empty suit, empty heart, empty head... Obama... Epic Fail.
>> Someone like a Gingrich who would have made it completely ideological battle every step and could articulate it would have I agree made it a 60-40 or 65-35 victory <<
Oh c’mon, good FRiend. Gee whiz. Let’s be real:
Your “someone like” poor ole Newt — genuinely superb orator though he truly is — couldn’t even carry Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi or Louisiana in the ‘pubbie primaries.
So how on earth can a rational person imagine that Gingrich could carry any NON-SOUTHERN states in the general election, other than maybe a few “electoral-vote-rich” states like Alaska, Wyoming and Nebraska?
Obama will lose because of the biggest case of buyers remorse in the history of the U.S. Conservatives never had any use for him. Independents are feeling like idiots now, and even lefties are abandoning him over NDAA, Goldman Sachs, new middle east wars, so what's he got left?
His one accomplishment is in getting Jimmy Carter bumped up a notch from last place.
I hear you “I dont like Romney at all, but I really, really, really hate Obama.”
This was at mitt’s web sight and i found it encouraging. I really need encouragement at this point.
These arent the values that lead to out-of-control spending sprees, or to piling up massive amounts of debt you know your children and grandchildren will have to work all their lives to pay off. These arent the values of putting off difficult decisions with the hope that maybe someone else will solve them.
Today America faces a financial crisis of debt and spending that threatens what it means to be an American. Here in the heartland you know in your hearts that its wrong.
We cant spend another four years talking about solving a problem that we know we are making worse every single day.
When the men and women who settled the Iowa prairie saw a fire in the distance, they didnt look around for someone else to save them or go back to sleep hoping the wind might blow another direction. They knew that their survival was up to them.
A prairie fire of debt is sweeping across Iowa and our nation and every day we fail to act that fire gets closer to the homes and children we love.
This is not solely a Democrat or a Republican problem. The issue isn’t who deserves the most blame, it’s who is going to do what it takes to put out the fire.
The people of Iowa and America have watched President Obama for nearly four years, much of that time with Congress controlled by his own party. And rather than put out the spending fire, he has fed the fire. He has spent more and borrowed more.
The time has come for a president, a leader, who will lead. I will lead us out of this debt and spending inferno. We will stop borrowing unfathomable sums of money we cant even imagine, from foreign countries well never even visit. I will bring us together to put out the fire!
A lot of people think this is a problem we cant solve. I reject that kind of cant do defeatist talk. Its wrong.
Whats happened here isnt complicated. Washington has been spending too much money and our new President made things much worse. His policies have taken us backwards.
Almost a generation ago, Bill Clinton announced that the Era of Big Government was over.
Even a former McGovern campaign worker like President Clinton was signaling to his own Party that Democrats should no longer try to govern by proposing a new program for every problem.
President Obama tucked away the Clinton doctrine in his large drawer of discarded ideas, along with transparency and bipartisanship. Its enough to make you wonder if maybe it was a personal beef with the Clintons .but really it runs much deeper.
President Obama is an old school liberal whose first instinct is to see free enterprise as the villain and government as the hero. America counted on President Obama to rescue the economy, tame the deficit and help create jobs. Instead, he bailed out the public-sector, gave billions of dollars to the companies of his friends, and added almost as much debt as all the prior presidents combined.
The consequence is that we are enduring the most tepid recovery in modern history.
The consequence is that half of the kids graduating from college can’t find a job that uses their skills. Half.
The consequence is that retirees can no longer get by on savings and Social Security.
The consequence is that the length of time it takes an unemployed worker to find a job is the longest on record.
This is why even those who voted for Barack Obama are disappointed in him.
Disappointment is the key in which the President’s re-election is being played. Americans will not settle for four more years of the same melancholy song. We can and we must do better.
President Obama started out with a near trillion-dollar stimulus package the biggest, most careless one-time expenditure by the federal government in history. And remember this: the stimulus wasnt just wasted it was borrowed and wasted. We still owe the money, were still paying interest on it, and itll be that way long after this presidency ends.
Then there was Obamacare. Even now nobody knows what it will actually cost. And that uncertainty has slowed our economy. Employers delay hiring and entrepreneurs put the brakes on starting new businesses, because of a massive, European-style entitlement that Americans didnt want and cant afford.
When you add up his policies, this President has increased the national debt by five trillion dollars.
Let me put that in a way we can understand. Your household’s share of government debt and unfunded liabilities has reached more than $520,000 under this president. Think about what that means. Your household will be taxed year after year with the interest cost of that debt and with the principal payments for those liabilities. Of course, it won’t be paid off by the adults in your household. It will be passed along to your children. They will struggle throughout their lives with the interest on our debts—and President Obama is adding to them every single day.
And that’s the best case scenario. The interest rate on that debt is bound to go up, like an adjustable mortgage. And there’s a good chance this debt could cause us to hit a Greece-like wall.
Subprime mortgages came close to bringing the economy to its knees. This debt is America’s Nightmare Mortgage. It is adjustable, no-money down, and assigned to our children. Politicians have been trying to hide the truth about this Nightmare Mortgage for years—just like liar-loans.
This is not just bad economics; it is immoral.
During my time in business and in state government, I came to see the economy as having three big players the private sector, the states and localities, and the federal government.
Of these three, the private sector is by far the most efficient and cost effective. That’s because scores of businesses and thousands of entrepreneurs are competing every day to find a way to deliver a product or a service that is better than anyone else’s. Think about smart phones. Blackberry got things going. Then Apple introduced the iPhone. Now the Android platform leads the market. In the world of free enterprise, competition brings us better and better products at lower and lower cost. Innovate and change or you go out of business. And the customer—us—benefits.
Government doesn’t begin to compare when it comes to change and improvements that provide better and less expensive services and products. But among governments, the states and localities are more responsive than the federal government, probably because there is a degree of competition between them.
The slowest, least responsive sector is the federal government. Nobody hears Washington, D.C. and thinks efficiency.
Imagine if the federal government was the sole legal supplier of cell phones. First, they’d still be under review, with hearings in Congress. When finally approved, the contract to make them would go to an Obama donor. They’d be the size of a shoe, with a collapsible solar panel. And campaign donors would be competing to become the all-powerful App Czar.
My point is this: as President Obama and old-school liberals absorb more and more of our economy into government, they make what we do more expensive, less efficient, and less useful. They make America less competitive. They make government more expensive.
What President Obama is doing is not bold; it’s old.
As president, I will make the federal government simpler, smaller, smarter and, by the way, more in keeping with the vision of the Framers of our Constitution.
This is why I do not, for one moment, share my opponents belief that our spending problems can be solved with more taxes. You do not owe Washington a bigger share of your paycheck.
Instead of putting more limits on your earnings and your options, we need to place clear and firm limits on government spending. As a start, I will lower federal spending to 20 percent of GDP within four years time down from the 24.3 percent today.
The Presidents plan assumes an endless expansion of government, with costs rising and rising with the spread of Obamacare. I will halt the expansion of government, and repeal Obamacare.
Working together, we can save Social Security without making any changes in the system for people in or nearing retirement. We have two basic options for future retirees: a tax increase for high-income retirees, or a decrease in the benefit growth rate for high-income retirees. I favor the second option; it protects everyone in the system and it avoids higher taxes that will drag down the economy.
I have proposed a Medicare plan that improves the program, keeps it solvent, and slows the rate of growth in health care costs.
Both of these reforms are relatively simple, compared to the far more difficult choices well face if we do nothing. Of course, Medicare and Social Security are also easy to demagogue, and I expect the President to continue doing that in this campaign. But Americans are on to that game, and Im not going to insult voters by pretending that we can just keep putting off entitlement reform. I will continue to speak honestly, and, if elected, I will do what is right for the people of America.
The President has made little effort to rein in redundancy and waste.
In 2011, the Government Accountability Office found 34 areas where agencies, offices, or initiatives in the federal government had overlapping objectives or were providing similar services. The GAO estimated that fixing this redundancy could save over $100 billion. Yet, one year later, only three of these 34 areas had been fully addressed. Only one program was actually defunded.
In 2010, 17 federal government agencies gave $7.7 billion to more than 25 United Nations programs, billions of it voluntarily.
Another example: There are 94 federal programs in 11 agencies that encourage green building. A report found that the results of their initiatives and investments are, quote, unknown.
We see the same bureaucracy and overhead in our anti-poverty programs. Last year, the federal government spent more than $600 billion on more than 100 different programs that aim to help the poor.
My approach to federal programs and bureaucracy is entirely different. Move programs to states or to the private sector where they can be run more efficiently and where we can do a better job helping the people who need our help. Shut down programs that aren’t working. And streamline everything that’s left. It’s time for the people of America to take back the government of America.
Entitlement reform, doing away with redundancy and waste, and shifting services and programs to the economic player who can deliver them best these are all serious steps toward getting our debt and spending under control.
But above all, we need to shake off the static big-government mindset of these past few years, and all the limits and regulations that go with it. We need a big turnaround here, and it requires a focused, unrelenting, long-term agenda for economic growth.
Instead of leading the world in how much we borrow, America must continue to lead the world in how much we build, create, and invent.
With all that weve been through these past few years, the challenges can seem awfully big, and some might look at America and wonder if we have lost our confidence. But confidence is not what is missing. All thats lacking now is direction and leadership.
These have been years of disappointment and decline, and soon we can put them behind us. We can prosper again, with the powerful recovery weve all been waiting for, the good jobs that so many still need, and, above all, the opportunities we owe to our children and grandchildren.
All of this can be more than our hope it can be our future. It can begin this year, in the choice you make, so I ask for your help, your support, and your vote on the sixth of November.
Thank you all, and God bless America.
Add (at a minimum) all of NE, ME-02, NH and quite possibly PA, and Obama’s twice-burnt toast.
I've predicted here that Romney will have over 300 EV’s and I stand by that (not that I like Romney, I don't, but there is no alternative this November).
America’s first Gay President, and perhaps the last.
You're correct IMNHO. But IBTZ? After all, the monster-like Karl Rove has recently been tooting the same riff on the execrable Faux News Cabal -- meaning that you might get zotted for expressing such an opinion!
I did not know (or maybe forgot) Robert Bork will lead Romney’s judicial selection team. That gives me great confidence that we can gain a stronger majority on the Supreme Court and make headway across the land in turning back the tide of Communist judicial activists.
I agree 100%. If Newt couldnt convince more than 30% of republican voters in a southern state than how is he going to convince 65% of voters in a national election ???
Please dont tell me the only reason Newt couldnt get above 30% was because romney spent 20 million in attack ads against him, because obama would have spent about 1 BILLION dollars against Newt in attack ads in a general election, and obamas ads would have made romney ads look like childs play considering obama wouldnt of had to worry about being too harsh and pissing off republican voters in general.
Fortunantly the freepers that are holding on to these Newt and Santorum fantasies are not the fringe, because calling them the fringe would be a insult to the fringe. They are the fringe of the fringe of the fringe, and there is not enough of them in number to impact a local election for dog catcher in tumbleweed, oklahoma population 14.
99.999999999999999999999999999% of republicans realize romney is going to be the nomineee and republicans need to get behind him in order to defeat the kenyan, socialist, gay loving, america hating president that we have now.
Well my main beef with your post was the 65% number. I just didnt think that was possible for ANY republican candidate to reach given the demographics of today. I dont think 58% is very likely either, but I do agree that that number is possible if obama really goes into meltdown mode. Personally I think 55% is around likely the number romney ends up with, but hey 58% is evem better. In any case I dont think obama has any real path towards victory.
Now if you want to argue that romney is not a strong candidate than thats a very valid arguement for you to make. Luckily for us it’s not going to take a very strong candidate to beat Obama.
FL is not a southern state. Snow birds and hispanics make it a hybrid state. The FL panhandle is solid conservative but Orlando south is full of pinkos and moochers.
I don’t understand how you can vote for Gary Johnson and not Romney. I am assuming you can’t vote for Romney because you think he’s too liberal, but if you look at Gary Johnson views overall he is much more liberal than Romney.
I can live to fight another day under Romney, I cant under Obama.
That’s exactly right.
Having Thompson on the ticket should really help in WI.
Barry is going to regret the homo love fest when he loses OH because married women bailed on him. He is about to learn how important the institution of marriage is to women.
It seems it is all going to come down to FL which makes Rubio the obvious VP.
“...2010 was the warm up for whats coming....”
Let’s hope so, brother...
Let’s hope it’s a veritable electoral TSUNAMI that washes the WH and Congress clean of this admin.
We have much work to do...”even a journey of ten thousand miles begins with but a single step...”
“...unprecedented voting fraud and ...”
Hence the move on Republican governors in swing states (like PA) to enact and pass Voter ID laws.
It will help to curtail the fraud that the Dems are famous for, especially in places like Philly.
Your Gary Johnson vote will mean much more to Obama than it ever will to Gary Johnson.
To Gary Johnson it means he might get .00000001% of the vote instead of .0000000000001% of the vote .
To obama it is just the same as if you had voted for obama himself. Every conservative vote that is taken away from Romneys total and given to Gary Johnson is just as if you check marked obama himself.
So if obama does pull off a miracle and win in 2012 than you can rest easy knowing that you collaborated with Kos kids and DUmmies to get the messiah relected.
Excellent post. Thanks for bringing reality and common sense into the debate.
The winner of 2012 will have to win 2 out of the following 3 states (its as simple as that ):
Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida. The rest are details.
You’re exactly right.
I am not planning on voting for Romney but the rock bottom percentage for a democrat president is about 40-42%.
In reality, demographically you are right, but geographically, Florida is still a Southern state. And....it will vote for Mitt Romney, come November, 2012, IMHO.
No way. They can't afford end their support of the first gay, black president. Never happen.
This friend will probably cave
You are exactly right.
Not to mention the MSM pollsters/ALL pollsters, always come through for the dems in the end...none of them,I repeat None of them can be trusted!!!!
I believe Goode is originally from NC. Perhaps he'll eat into some of the Romney vote in NC and perhaps the worse president in US history will squeak out a victory again in NC.
Same senario goes for VA.
“Election 2012: North Carolina President North Carolina: Romney 51%, Obama 43%”
To me, these numbers indicate a tight race. This is gonna be a close one.
Whoa, you say, Romney has an 8-point lead, how can that be close?
This is -North Carolina-, these days a “red state” (yes, I remember the Solid South of 50 years ago). The fact that Romney has only 51%, a bare majority, shows that his support is tepid, at best.
And, conversely, look at “Obama’s base” — right around 43%. There is a “committed core” of at least 40-45% who are not going to abandon “the one” for any reason. And again, these numbers should be viewed in the context that NC is a relatively “conservative” state.
Things could change between now and the conventions and the election, but I believe the numbers we’re seeing today probably aren’t that far off from how the final tally (i.e., the “popular vote”, nationwide) is going to rack up.
That is to say:
- Romney will will the national popular vote, but by a relatively small margin, say, 51-54%
- The numbers will be heavily skewed in both the blue states (big turnout for Obama) and the red states (similar turnout for Romney).
- The election will hinge on about 7 or 8 battlegrounds. I predict that Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, and little New Hampshire may become “the keys” (and Romney will need these four to win).
- The electoral college vote may be the closest in history.
Of course, I would like to see a blowout. But I don’t believe that’s gonna happen. We now live in a “divided nation”, and the two factions are growing apart, not closer....
Well don’t really watch TV news, so don’t know what any of the talking heads on CNN, FOX , or the networks are saying, but there is certainly a risk of overplaying the gay marriage thing.. you come across hard, and you can look bad and it damages you.
The country doesn’t want it, Obama says he’s for it.. you don’t need to say anything other than “Obama is welcome to his Oppinion”... Public knows where it stands on this issue, and now Obama has finally stated publicly what everyone has known anyway from day one on this issue.
This issue can’t even pass on a ballot in uber liberal California, Obama is playing rope a dope with it, and fortunately it looks like Romney isn’t taking the bait.
Im not holding onto any fantasies, the primary is over, Mitt is the candidate and nothing is going to change that.
What I have said is that Mitt isn’t going to make this an ideological election, he’s going to sit back, play boring don’t make a mistake, that’s it.
He’s not going to try to articulate the conservative world view, whether or not he agrees with it, because its not who he is, and frankly he’s not a person who can articulate it.
Only one guy could, he’s gone, and so it is.
Stop trying to start flame wars where none exist. I believe this election if it were fought by ideological ground with a candidate who could and would articulate the conservative, limited government, world view and knew how to handle the press, they would easily get 60%+ of the vote. Mitt ain’t that guy, so its not likely to wind up that lopsided, but its still going to be a lopsided affair.
Sadly because the election won’t be won or fought on ideology, the victory wont carry the weight into the next congress that ideologically the country has rejected social democracy and as such wins won’t be used to roll back a lot of the last 60 years of nonsense.
Ideology matters, but it won’t be in play, at least not on the right side of the isle for this election. The advantage gained won’t be pushed as it should be.
Now if you wish to discuss the primary and what happened with Newt, I will gladly do so, but that was not the point I was making, nor am I playing sour grapes.
Actually if OH goes you really don’t even need Fl.
Though I think FL will go back to red anyway.
As I stated earlier 2008 R results need 67 additional to win.
Red states get 6 out of the gate from redistricting, and Blue lose 6 thanks to the census. So you are a need of 61.
NC is going back to red, after basically recovering from a Meth High that caused them to do some stupid things last decade, like vote for Edwards and Obama. OH I believe will be solid red as well, which means OH and NC and Indiana will be red without question this time.. which gives you 44 plus the extra 6, you are at 50 already, so only 17 more are needed.
I think WI will go Red, IA probably will go red, (16) NM I suspect will as well. I think PA is truly in Play as well, as are others.
Obviously if FL and NC and OH go red, it really doesn’t matter with the rest, because there is your 60+ needed. Its certainly the path of least states swapping to get you there, but its definitely not the only path.
FL though gives me a little pause to count on, yes most seniors know this guys an idiot, but lots of new england liberals have moved in that state in recent years.. however even they can’t deny what their Retirement Quarterlys are telling em, and that’s that this administration has been an economic disaster.
I feel fairly comfortable saying NC, OH and IN will go red. I don’t think those are even up for debate.
I believe WI will as well, dems have spent the last how many years playing sour grapes up there, and folks have to be sick of it, regardless of the fact that WI has been hit harder than most by the Obama economy, or lack thereof.
VA? Don’t know the DC area still seems as crazy as ever, but I gotta believe VA isn’t completely broken yet, and will return to RED.. but haven’t seen any polling there, so who knows.
I do believe PA is in play, I can barely find anyone other than radical leftist, or blacks who will even admit they voted for the guy in 08 anymore. And those votes were never going anywhere but Democratic anyway. Most of the swing vote I interact with, have bailed on this guy big time, and the DEMOCRATIC state machine doesn’t exist anymore, the governors office is no longer cotrolled by dems, so you won’t have that boosting him here.
You know what I would like to see, I’d like to see NJ go Red, I think that would be a bigger statement than FL swinging back red.
However as long as obama has less than 270 EC votes, I really don’t care what path gets it there.. and honestly I don’t see any way he can get 270 this cycle.
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