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Rasmussen: Wisconsin Recall Election: Walker 50%, Barrett 45%
Rasmussen Reports ^ | 05/10/2012 | Scott Rasmussen

Posted on 05/10/2012 9:24:07 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

Embattled Republican Governor Scott Walker holds a five-point lead over his newly nominated Democratic challenger Tom Barrett in Wisconsin’s special recall election.

A new Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey shows that 50% of the state’s Likely Voters prefer Walker while 45% choose Barrett. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate and another two percent (2%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Wisconsin was conducted on May 9, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.


TOPICS: Front Page News; Politics/Elections; US: Wisconsin
KEYWORDS: rasmussenpoll; recall; scottwalker; wi2012; wisconsin
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METHODOLOGY:

Data for Rasmussen Reports survey research is collected using an automated polling methodology. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. Generally speaking, the automated survey process is identical to that of traditional, operator-assisted research firms such as Gallup, Harris, and Roper. However, automated polling systems use a single, digitally-recorded, voice to conduct the interview while traditional firms rely on phone banks, boiler rooms, and operator-assisted technology.

For tracking surveys such as the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll or the Rasmussen Consumer Index, the automated technology insures that every respondent hears exactly the same question, from the exact same voice, asked with the exact same inflection every single time.

All Rasmussen Reports' survey questions are digitally recorded and fed to a calling program that determines question order, branching options, and other factors. Calls are placed to randomly-selected phone numbers through a process that insures appropriate geographic representation. Typically, calls are placed from 5 pm to 9 pm local time during the week. Saturday calls are made from 11 am to 6 pm local time and Sunday calls from 1 pm to 9 pm local time.

To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel.

After the surveys are completed, the raw data is processed through a weighting program to insure that the sample reflects the overall population in terms of age, race, gender, political party, and other factors. The processing step is required because different segments of the population answer the phone in different ways. For example, women answer the phone more than men, older people are home more and answer more than younger people, and rural residents typically answer the phone more frequently than urban residents.

For surveys of all adults, the population targets are determined by census bureau data.

For political surveys, census bureau data provides a starting point and a series of screening questions are used to determine likely voters. The questions involve voting history, interest in the current campaign, and likely voting intentions.

Rasmussen Reports determines its partisan weighting targets through a dynamic weighting system that takes into account the state’s voting history, national trends, and recent polling in a particular state or geographic area.

1 posted on 05/10/2012 9:24:13 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind
It's going to take money to win this one.
2 posted on 05/10/2012 9:25:20 AM PDT by Carry_Okie (The environment is too complex and too important to manage by central planning.)
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To: SeekAndFind

I think Walker ends up with 52% of the vote on June 5.


3 posted on 05/10/2012 9:27:17 AM PDT by Obadiah (Resist we much!)
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To: SeekAndFind

Does anyone seriously think the RAT party in the USSA is going to accept the results of this recall, if the RAT position loses?


4 posted on 05/10/2012 9:30:13 AM PDT by Cheerio (Barry Hussein Soetoro-0bama=The Complete Destruction of American Capitalism)
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To: Obadiah

RE: I think Walker ends up with 52% of the vote on June 5.

Are you by any chance, from the great state of Wisconsin where you can better gauge the pulse of the local populace?


5 posted on 05/10/2012 9:33:30 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: Clintonfatigued

WI “PINGO”


6 posted on 05/10/2012 9:42:13 AM PDT by GOPsterinMA (The stench of Earth Pimp-age is permeating over the internet...)
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To: SeekAndFind

I think that such a margin is possible, based on the numbers from the primary election.

However, we can’t get complacent here in WI. We need to turn out the vote.


7 posted on 05/10/2012 9:46:30 AM PDT by Thunder90 (Romney barely won in OH with a 12-1 money advantage, he can't beat Obama that way.)
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To: Obadiah; Clintonfatigued
I agree.

This poll breaks down to about the same percentage Walker won with against the same candidate in 2010.

A lot of hoops, hoopla, shenanigans and bullsh*t for naught.

In a perfect world, Walker would blow him out by 20+%.

8 posted on 05/10/2012 9:50:34 AM PDT by GOPsterinMA (The stench of Earth Pimp-age is permeating over the internet...)
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To: SeekAndFind

I work right in the heart of the beast (Madison).


9 posted on 05/10/2012 9:53:44 AM PDT by Obadiah (Resist we much!)
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To: Obadiah
I am orginally from WI, now live in MN, but go to WI every weekend as I am the POA for my elderly 95 yr old father and take care of his country farm & property. In any case, I predict that Walker will win by 52-48% (possibly even 53-47%). However we need to contribute heavily to the Walker "Fight the Recall" campaign, as the demTurds & unions will be pouring $61 million into WI, to defeat not only Walker & his Lt Governor Rebecca Kleefish, but also 4 of the WI Repub senators who stayed & did their jobs a year ago during the collective bargaining & budget reduction bill. Up till now, I have seen almost entirely pro-Walker signs, but now that the demTurd primary is over, I am sure I will see pro-Barrett signs in the lawns as well. However my prediction is that Walker will win with the margins above, but I am concerned that the unions will actually target the 4 Repub state senator recall races, since the unions were not all supportive of Barrett, as they were pulling for the radical pro-union candidate, Kathleen Falk. Plus in the Nov 2010 governor election, Scott Walker defeated Barrett in that election by 52-48%.

We need to pray & work & contribute like crazy to secure a win for Walker as well as the 4 WI Repub state senators.

10 posted on 05/10/2012 9:54:00 AM PDT by rcrngroup
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To: SeekAndFind

I strenuously object to the notion that a petition drive can force another showdown between candidates.

The step missing before that is for the voters to decide if there should be another election.

As it stands, this should be unconstitutional, and it should be challenged. A legitimate election is being overthrown by just a tiny percentage of those who voted in that election.

The petition should only allow a question to go before the voters: “Should there be another election for governor?” If another FULL ELECTORATE election decides to have another candidate showdown, then it should take place.


11 posted on 05/10/2012 9:54:10 AM PDT by xzins (Vote Goode not Evil (the lesser of 2 evils is still evil))
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To: Cheerio
Does anyone seriously think the RAT party in the USSA is going to accept the results of this recall, if the RAT position loses?

Of course not, they'll throw their predictable foul-mouthed temper tantrums and break laws with impunity, courtesy of the jus' dis Department's blessing.

12 posted on 05/10/2012 9:58:57 AM PDT by fwdude
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To: rcrngroup

Completely concur, but today we are jazzed. We are feeling confident and the Left has suddenly realized that there is a very real possibility that they will lose on June 5.

You have to understand that for nearly a year and a half the corrupt media has championed the Left-wing lunatics and their Union brethren’s cause. Every Prius and Suburu is plastered with multiple “Recall Walker” stickers. Every day, for a year-and-a-half this has been in our face and we’ve had to just suck it up. I tell you, people are simply spring-loaded to get to the polls and vote for Walker and stuff this back back down their throats.


13 posted on 05/10/2012 10:00:56 AM PDT by Obadiah (Resist we much!)
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To: fwdude
Already, already the Leftists are changing their story! The whole thing that kicked off this quixotic recall quest was exclusively the whole Union deal. Now, suddenly, I am seeing and hearing comments that it's really not about the Union issue, it about jobs and the whole way Walker has supposedly governed. It's absolutely staggering how these guys pivot on a dime. They have no sense of perspective, heck they have no sense of reality!

It will be delicious to see the media after Walker wins. They have been absolutely hyping the "grievances" of the teacher's union and the left since this all began. They have provided no balance just catering to the left, and people are sick and tired of this deliberate effort to distort reality and rewrite facts simply to further their agenda by the media.

14 posted on 05/10/2012 10:06:33 AM PDT by Obadiah (Resist we much!)
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To: fwdude; Cheerio
Of course not, they'll throw their predictable foul-mouthed temper tantrums and break laws with impunity, courtesy of the jus' dis Department's blessing.

This will be a primer for what's to come when we fire Zer0's sorry ass!

15 posted on 05/10/2012 10:15:42 AM PDT by unixfox (Abolish Slavery, Repeal The 16th Amendment!)
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To: Obadiah

If Walker wins, which would be HUGE, any idea what recourse the slime has, in calling for another recall? Can they do this again next year? Year after?


16 posted on 05/10/2012 10:17:07 AM PDT by NE Cons
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To: Obadiah
I concur with your concurrence. It's good to take a breather now & then, and savor the victories when they occur.

Because you & I know, that any of the legislative victories for Walker & the Repubs will ALWAYS end up being challenged & overruled by some dimTurd RAT bastard, pro-union, SOB, peon county court district judge in Dane County that somehow can make rulings for the entire state of WI.

17 posted on 05/10/2012 10:22:37 AM PDT by rcrngroup
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To: NE Cons

They could try again but they wont get any $$$$ support to do it.


18 posted on 05/10/2012 10:25:49 AM PDT by Beagle8U (Free Republic -- One stop shopping ....... It's the Conservative Super WalMart for news .)
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If people think the recall election is expensive, just wait until the bill for the recount of the recount of the recount of the recount with each recount the dem getting just a few more votes until recount 11 which finally puts the dem 2 votes up thus ending the recount


19 posted on 05/10/2012 10:41:01 AM PDT by dsrtsage (One half of all people have below average IQ. In the US the number is 54%)
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To: rcrngroup
We need to pray & work & contribute like crazy to secure a win for Walker as well as the 4 WI Repub state senators.

I've sent a donation to Walker recently.. anyone have ideas as to polling data re: Kleefisch and the Senators?

20 posted on 05/10/2012 10:46:06 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Buying Drain-O requires photo I.D... so should voting!)
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To: SeekAndFind

I’ve been saying for the last few weeks that Walker will win by the same number (5%) as the 2010 election against Barrett.

After the primary I’m betting its closer to 10%. Why?

- blacks will not show in the big numbers needed for Barrett in a recall, their UE rate in the City of Milwaukee is near 50%!!

- a percentage of real leftist will sit this out. Barrett is basically Walker to them and they’d be better off hating Walker for the rest of his term and then get their candidate in 2014.

- the Dems are pivoting to jobs as their rallying cry for the recall. All Walker will have to say is “how is the mayor of a City with 10.4% unemployment, 50% AA UE, and has a 29% increase in UE over his 8 years qualified to say anything about jobs?”

- Barrett is counting on this John Doe investigation hurting Walker...a political dirty trick this late in the process will not go over well.

- colleges in WI will already be on summer break. There will not be an influx of students lining up to vote on election day

- voting patterns show that there were likely over 700K Republicans voting in the primary. A primary that a good chunk of WI residents had no idea that was taking place. Our resident “expert” Mordechi Lee here in Milwaukee was confidently saying that 95% of R primary voters would vote Falk and Walker votes would be minimal. He wasn’t even close!!!

The wave that is building up here?. The reason for so many votes in a primary? Heard it on the talk shows all day yesterday. We’ve had to sit here and take the lefts sh!t for 15 months now and we finally got our first chance to show support for Gov Walker in a way other than donations. There is no real historical explanation for this huge primary turnout here in WI other than the fact that we’re looking for scalps in this fight and we’re going to get every single one we want.

I think because of how charged up we are you’re going to see fervor on the left to continue to dissipate...

That night I’ll be drinking in celebration and likely having my wife keep me from going out in the street and telling all of my recall supporting neighbors to go and screw themselves... :)


21 posted on 05/10/2012 10:49:01 AM PDT by MNlurker
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To: Obadiah

I love you. I really, really do.


22 posted on 05/10/2012 10:51:10 AM PDT by Lazamataz (To the wall, street occupiers!!!!!)
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To: SeekAndFind

It’ll be 55-45 Walker, if not better. Just like he beat Barrett before.

This will make it three times Barrett ran for Governor and lost. Barrett is a piece of soggy limp toast. Always has been.

You don’t win when your main reason for victory is because you hate the other guy. Almost always that isn’t enough. You have to have real reasons to vote FOR someone over another. Barrett has no reasons of his own why he’s better than Walker. “I’m not Walker” isn’t enough. Wasn’t last time either.


23 posted on 05/10/2012 10:52:38 AM PDT by Secret Agent Man (I can neither confirm or deny that; even if I could, I couldn't - it's classified.)
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To: Beagle8U

Thanks Beagle


24 posted on 05/10/2012 10:55:26 AM PDT by NE Cons
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To: Secret Agent Man; Ellendra
Barrett has no reasons of his own why he’s better than Walker. “I’m not Walker” isn’t enough. Wasn’t last time either.

Someone needs to re-write the lyrics to "Devil Went Down to Georgia" something like - "I beat you once, you sonuvagun, I'm the best that's ever been!" And based on some of Charlie Daniels' previous blog postings, I'd guess he might go along with it, too!

25 posted on 05/10/2012 11:01:11 AM PDT by knittnmom (Save the earth! It's the only planet with chocolate!)
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To: xzins

The Wisconsin Constitution makes specific provision for recall petitions. Whether this is a lousy idea or not, it’s clearly constitutional.


26 posted on 05/10/2012 11:01:22 AM PDT by Mr. Lucky
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To: NE Cons

IMO, they are done. Walker will have to run again for his normal term in 2014 and the only problem he could encounter then is if Rusty Feingold decides to run at that point. Feingold is the Liberal’s demigod and could be a wildcard. I don’t think anyone else touches Walker.


27 posted on 05/10/2012 11:07:13 AM PDT by Obadiah (Resist we much!)
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To: Lazamataz

And you’re the only one on this board that scares me when you say that!


28 posted on 05/10/2012 11:09:34 AM PDT by Obadiah (Resist we much!)
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To: SeekAndFind; Thunder90; Obadiah; rcrngroup
Is this the official site in which to give $$$ to help Gov. Scott Walker?

http://istandwithwalker.com/

There seem to be several sites...

29 posted on 05/10/2012 11:11:07 AM PDT by nutmeg (Rest in peace, and thank you, Andrew Breitbart)
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To: Obadiah

Thanks. In 2 years, I think Feingold’s shine will have dulled also... He gets past this, he’s one of my faves for 2016.


30 posted on 05/10/2012 11:12:18 AM PDT by NE Cons
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To: Obadiah

The Marxists have picked their ground zero. Striking against democracy is just beginning to lose ground in Wisconsin, by around 10%.

So many battles, so many enemies. It’s exhausting, isn’t it? And foreign money is probably being smuggled in to futher frustrate our new found muscle to fight back.

How come we Republicans never buy a few buses, megaphones, protesters, hell raisers and political flame throwers?

We may not be up to the tactical supplies necessary.


31 posted on 05/10/2012 11:13:10 AM PDT by RitaOK (Nevermind, Newt. Forget the convention. I'm trusting God for the rest.)
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To: xzins

Unfortunately, it’s constitutional in Wisconsin. Doesn’t make it right, but perhaps recall elections could be made more difficult.

Republicans tried very hard to recall the Wisconsin Fleebaggers once upon a time, and are still trying to do so in the case of people like Bob Jauch. But if I remember correctly (and perhaps I don’t), current law calls for a recall based on a percentage of previous ballots cast.

In parliamentary procedure, a Motion to Reconsider may only be made by a member of the winning side in a vote. Therefore, I wouldn’t be averse to requiring those who wish to recall a candidate to gather more valid petition signatures than the number of votes cast for the election winner.

And yes, I know it could work both ways. But recall elections every two years is no way to run a government.


32 posted on 05/10/2012 11:20:52 AM PDT by Colonel_Flagg (Obama vs. Romney: Zero x Zero = Zero.)
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To: SeekAndFind

I would not be surprised if Walker wins by 10 points. A lot of people lie to pollsters, especially in light of the violent threats from the union goons. I just want to see Ed Schultz’ head explode.


33 posted on 05/10/2012 11:48:27 AM PDT by ozzymandus
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To: SeekAndFind

I would not be surprised if Walker wins by 10 points. A lot of people lie to pollsters, especially in light of the violent threats from the union goons. I just want to see Ed Schultz’ head explode.


34 posted on 05/10/2012 11:48:27 AM PDT by ozzymandus
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To: xzins; Colonel_Flagg
Are there any states with anything even remotely resembling your idea? I haven't heard of any, but I suspect I'm just ignorant about it.

It would be an interesting argument to determine what the threshold for demanding a recall should be. Both a "majority of those voting" and "a number exceeding the incumbent's vote-total" seem to my first glance to be an unduly high bar to jump. That is, the campaign itself is where the real argument gets made--it seems unrealistic to persuade that many without the chance for focused persuasion, which a campaign provides.

How does 40% sound? For example (although one far removed), the nine-member Supreme Court requires the votes of just four justices to authorize hearing a case. At least with that many you avoid the problem of too-few petition signers and every-other-year recalls.

Your thoughts?

35 posted on 05/10/2012 11:49:00 AM PDT by Hebrews 11:6 (Do you REALLY believe that (1) God IS, and (2) God IS GOOD?)
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To: Cheerio

Communists never give up.

Consider a hammer driving a nail.
If you just saw the hammer during the back stroke,
you’d wonder how that nail was getting deeper and deeper into the wood.


36 posted on 05/10/2012 11:50:03 AM PDT by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter knows whom he's working for)
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To: Hebrews 11:6; xzins
Are there any states with anything even remotely resembling your idea? I haven't heard of any, but I suspect I'm just ignorant about it.

I doubt it. But I do think a hard and fast percentage should be adopted -- and the bar needs to be high. Provided Voter ID laws are passed to ensure that the initial election is valid in the first place, recall elections OUGHT to be hard. For a reason.

37 posted on 05/10/2012 11:54:27 AM PDT by Colonel_Flagg (Obama vs. Romney: Zero x Zero = Zero.)
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To: Carry_Okie

I just sent another $100 to Governor Walker.

I hope everyone supports him as much as possible.


38 posted on 05/10/2012 12:09:30 PM PDT by oldm60grunt
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To: Hebrews 11:6

Let’s say the bar is 10% to have a recall election.

Why should 10% of the population get to overturn an election?

Or 20%, or even 30%.

That should ONLY permit a vote to determine if the election should be overturned.

Otherwise, 10/20/30% controls elections. That’s insane. Just get the people who voted against a guy to sign a petition, and they get a do-over.


39 posted on 05/10/2012 12:22:55 PM PDT by xzins (Vote Goode not Evil (the lesser of 2 evils is still evil))
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To: NE Cons
Only one recall is allowed by law per office term. So if the Unions fail in this recall, they will have to wait until the next general election to try voting Walker out when his term is up.

I firmly believe that a law needs to be passed, even a constitutional amendment, for Wisconsin that if you retain your office in a recall election, the win should be good for one successive term. The recall effort should cost the recallers something if they lose.

40 posted on 05/10/2012 12:31:46 PM PDT by fwdude
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To: oldm60grunt

I’ll be supporting him and the 4 “R” Senator with my donations - from TEXAS.


41 posted on 05/10/2012 12:33:02 PM PDT by fwdude
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To: SeekAndFind
Who can forget the not-so-subtle goonion threats last year against anyone who would not post a pro-union flyer on their business window?

These accounts, and many others, need to be held before the public's eyes constantly until the election. They need to witness what violent goons these Marxists are.

42 posted on 05/10/2012 12:37:11 PM PDT by fwdude
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To: xzins

You responded to my suggestion that the bar be set at 40% by arguing against 10%/20%/30%.


43 posted on 05/10/2012 3:13:57 PM PDT by Hebrews 11:6 (Do you REALLY believe that (1) God IS, and (2) God IS GOOD?)
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To: Cheerio
I wonder if they plan on having Recall after Recall after Recall until
the public loses interest and they win.
44 posted on 05/10/2012 3:29:11 PM PDT by MaxMax
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To: Mr. Lucky

It cannot possibly fit equal protection under the law for 10% of the people to overturn an election in which far more than that voted.

It should take the petition to have an election on the recall question. And then there should be an election if the electorate determines to recall the governor.


45 posted on 05/10/2012 5:02:47 PM PDT by xzins (Vote Goode not Evil (the lesser of 2 evils is still evil))
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To: Hebrews 11:6

No, I wasn’t arguing against you. I was still arguing against the system. Whoever said “more signatures than voted for the one being recalled” has an idea with merit.


46 posted on 05/10/2012 5:04:54 PM PDT by xzins (Vote Goode not Evil (the lesser of 2 evils is still evil))
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To: SeekAndFind; Hunton Peck; Diana in Wisconsin; P from Sheb; Shady; DonkeyBonker; Wisconsinlady; ...

Wisconsin: Rasmussen release poll on Walder’s and Barret’s chances ping

FReep Mail me if you want on, or off, this Wisconsin interest ping list.


47 posted on 05/10/2012 5:51:22 PM PDT by afraidfortherepublic
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To: ScottinVA
My understanding is that Kleefisch is on the ballot with Scott Walker, as his Lt governor and not as a separate entry. In any case, she is smart, articulate & gorgeous and would wipe the floor with any demTurd.

Re. polling for the state senators, you actually can't trust any of the polling data, since the liberal RAT bastard media is doing everything they can to squelch enthusiasm or turnout for the Repubs. Last year, one of the recall elections for state senator Sheila Harsdorf, the media & demturds were gloating they would win in a landslide, and instead the exact opposite happened. Sheila Harsdorf won with something like 60-40% or somewhere in that neighborhood.

The thing I have noticed is that a lot of independents & virtally every Repub is pissed off over the constant recalls. If there is a massive turnout on June 5 (which I pray to God that it will be massive), I think that will favor the Repubs overwhelmingly.

48 posted on 05/10/2012 7:17:22 PM PDT by rcrngroup
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To: fwdude

Thanks for the info!


49 posted on 05/10/2012 7:33:29 PM PDT by NE Cons
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To: rcrngroup

DAY-um.... she IS all you describe!! Heck with the recall.. Imagine the dream third-party ticket in November...

Palin/Kleefisch 2012!

;-)


50 posted on 05/11/2012 4:31:02 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Buying Drain-O requires photo I.D... so should voting!)
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