Posted on 05/10/2012 9:24:07 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Embattled Republican Governor Scott Walker holds a five-point lead over his newly nominated Democratic challenger Tom Barrett in Wisconsin’s special recall election.
A new Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey shows that 50% of the state’s Likely Voters prefer Walker while 45% choose Barrett. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate and another two percent (2%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Wisconsin was conducted on May 9, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.
I’ve been saying for the last few weeks that Walker will win by the same number (5%) as the 2010 election against Barrett.
After the primary I’m betting its closer to 10%. Why?
- blacks will not show in the big numbers needed for Barrett in a recall, their UE rate in the City of Milwaukee is near 50%!!
- a percentage of real leftist will sit this out. Barrett is basically Walker to them and they’d be better off hating Walker for the rest of his term and then get their candidate in 2014.
- the Dems are pivoting to jobs as their rallying cry for the recall. All Walker will have to say is “how is the mayor of a City with 10.4% unemployment, 50% AA UE, and has a 29% increase in UE over his 8 years qualified to say anything about jobs?”
- Barrett is counting on this John Doe investigation hurting Walker...a political dirty trick this late in the process will not go over well.
- colleges in WI will already be on summer break. There will not be an influx of students lining up to vote on election day
- voting patterns show that there were likely over 700K Republicans voting in the primary. A primary that a good chunk of WI residents had no idea that was taking place. Our resident “expert” Mordechi Lee here in Milwaukee was confidently saying that 95% of R primary voters would vote Falk and Walker votes would be minimal. He wasn’t even close!!!
The wave that is building up here?. The reason for so many votes in a primary? Heard it on the talk shows all day yesterday. We’ve had to sit here and take the lefts sh!t for 15 months now and we finally got our first chance to show support for Gov Walker in a way other than donations. There is no real historical explanation for this huge primary turnout here in WI other than the fact that we’re looking for scalps in this fight and we’re going to get every single one we want.
I think because of how charged up we are you’re going to see fervor on the left to continue to dissipate...
That night I’ll be drinking in celebration and likely having my wife keep me from going out in the street and telling all of my recall supporting neighbors to go and screw themselves... :)
I love you. I really, really do.
It’ll be 55-45 Walker, if not better. Just like he beat Barrett before.
This will make it three times Barrett ran for Governor and lost. Barrett is a piece of soggy limp toast. Always has been.
You don’t win when your main reason for victory is because you hate the other guy. Almost always that isn’t enough. You have to have real reasons to vote FOR someone over another. Barrett has no reasons of his own why he’s better than Walker. “I’m not Walker” isn’t enough. Wasn’t last time either.
Thanks Beagle
Someone needs to re-write the lyrics to "Devil Went Down to Georgia" something like - "I beat you once, you sonuvagun, I'm the best that's ever been!" And based on some of Charlie Daniels' previous blog postings, I'd guess he might go along with it, too!
The Wisconsin Constitution makes specific provision for recall petitions. Whether this is a lousy idea or not, it’s clearly constitutional.
IMO, they are done. Walker will have to run again for his normal term in 2014 and the only problem he could encounter then is if Rusty Feingold decides to run at that point. Feingold is the Liberal’s demigod and could be a wildcard. I don’t think anyone else touches Walker.
And you’re the only one on this board that scares me when you say that!
There seem to be several sites...
Thanks. In 2 years, I think Feingold’s shine will have dulled also... He gets past this, he’s one of my faves for 2016.
The Marxists have picked their ground zero. Striking against democracy is just beginning to lose ground in Wisconsin, by around 10%.
So many battles, so many enemies. It’s exhausting, isn’t it? And foreign money is probably being smuggled in to futher frustrate our new found muscle to fight back.
How come we Republicans never buy a few buses, megaphones, protesters, hell raisers and political flame throwers?
We may not be up to the tactical supplies necessary.
Unfortunately, it’s constitutional in Wisconsin. Doesn’t make it right, but perhaps recall elections could be made more difficult.
Republicans tried very hard to recall the Wisconsin Fleebaggers once upon a time, and are still trying to do so in the case of people like Bob Jauch. But if I remember correctly (and perhaps I don’t), current law calls for a recall based on a percentage of previous ballots cast.
In parliamentary procedure, a Motion to Reconsider may only be made by a member of the winning side in a vote. Therefore, I wouldn’t be averse to requiring those who wish to recall a candidate to gather more valid petition signatures than the number of votes cast for the election winner.
And yes, I know it could work both ways. But recall elections every two years is no way to run a government.
I would not be surprised if Walker wins by 10 points. A lot of people lie to pollsters, especially in light of the violent threats from the union goons. I just want to see Ed Schultz’ head explode.
I would not be surprised if Walker wins by 10 points. A lot of people lie to pollsters, especially in light of the violent threats from the union goons. I just want to see Ed Schultz’ head explode.
It would be an interesting argument to determine what the threshold for demanding a recall should be. Both a "majority of those voting" and "a number exceeding the incumbent's vote-total" seem to my first glance to be an unduly high bar to jump. That is, the campaign itself is where the real argument gets made--it seems unrealistic to persuade that many without the chance for focused persuasion, which a campaign provides.
How does 40% sound? For example (although one far removed), the nine-member Supreme Court requires the votes of just four justices to authorize hearing a case. At least with that many you avoid the problem of too-few petition signers and every-other-year recalls.
Your thoughts?
Communists never give up.
Consider a hammer driving a nail.
If you just saw the hammer during the back stroke,
you’d wonder how that nail was getting deeper and deeper into the wood.
I doubt it. But I do think a hard and fast percentage should be adopted -- and the bar needs to be high. Provided Voter ID laws are passed to ensure that the initial election is valid in the first place, recall elections OUGHT to be hard. For a reason.
I just sent another $100 to Governor Walker.
I hope everyone supports him as much as possible.
Let’s say the bar is 10% to have a recall election.
Why should 10% of the population get to overturn an election?
Or 20%, or even 30%.
That should ONLY permit a vote to determine if the election should be overturned.
Otherwise, 10/20/30% controls elections. That’s insane. Just get the people who voted against a guy to sign a petition, and they get a do-over.
I firmly believe that a law needs to be passed, even a constitutional amendment, for Wisconsin that if you retain your office in a recall election, the win should be good for one successive term. The recall effort should cost the recallers something if they lose.
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