Skip to comments.What does the fall of the welfare state look like?
Posted on 05/04/2012 7:38:57 AM PDT by MNDude
I'm sure everyone knows that the USA is heading over an economic cliff sometime whether sooner or later.
Although it's already starting to happen in Europe, the end result is still uncharted waters.
Until recent years, the vast majority of humanity did not have the concept of having to do nothing because their government would take care of them.
Some of the things to come is very predictable--lots of angry members of the entitled class will riot and burn things, blah blah blah, as soon as their payments start running out. But after that? Then what shape will things take?
Does anyone know which country best resembles the future of USA? It'd be interesting to see what gets cut first in a near complete collapse in the line of welfare, social security, pension payments, prisons, etc.
Argentina, a few years back?
There are hundreds of wanabe “strong men” just waiting for the opportunity to step up and “save” us.
There are plenty of fools (even on FR) who will eagerly embrace him.
More like North Korea!
For the best example, look at the former Soviet Union after 1991.
Run to the mountains with your guns. Then start the rebuilding. The folk in the cities will take care of the government people for us.
Of course, simple material poverty will morph into abject squalor and lawlessness.
Agreed, throw in the demographic shifts, and you can see where the lines of loyalty and such will be.
“...the end result is still uncharted waters.”
There won’t be water at the bottom of this cliff.
An Occupy Wall Street campsite.
None of these apply. Not one of the other country examples given contains a heavily-armed populace. A U.S. collapse will be very different.
The most powerful country in history, both in military and economic might...
The wealthiest poor/dependent class ever in history...
The best armed citizenry in history...
There are a lot of firsts. The collapse of the USA will not be isolated. The world is going down with us.
Once the Soviet Union collapsed, the modus vivendi failed, the government-subsidized and -run enterprises collapsed, and an entire generation of Russians were forced to fend for themselves, while dealing with various mafiyas and former KGB apparatchiks who had gone into business for themselves.
We can expect the same here when the government checks bounce and Dignity cards are no longer accepted. Your local police will be collecing protection money from the townspeople. The justice system will go private as people pay hitmen, i.e. former police, to handle personal justice.
It won't be pretty.
If you don't believe me now, you will someday soon when the checks stop coming and the EBT cards stop working.
It will look like the actions happening in Greece, Spain, or any of the other EU countries currently in financial collapse......except include guns.
That’s way too pessimistic.
>>Run to the mountains with your guns. Then start the rebuilding. The folk in the cities will take care of the government people for us.
>That’s what i’m thinking!
Then, sadly, they’ll take care of one another.
It seems every month Atlanta has difficulty making the deposits to “recipients” debit cards. That is pretty revealing.
The welfare state will never die, so long as there’s fiat money to pass around, and a state willing to pass it.
I don't see a timeline involving a crash and then resurrection. Instead I see a timeline that involves hundreds of "drops" similar to 2008. Each drop will involve the standard of living of 90% of Americans going down by a measurable amount but not catastrophically.
It is not the nature of men to live like this. When given freedom men will create, improve, grow, flourish. When constrained they will go down the path we are going. The rock bottom will come when people no longer have the ability to feed their children. It always has been throughout history, always will be. The technology we have discovered, the resources that we possess and the wealth that has been amassed I believe will sustain this current slide for hundreds if not thousands of years. As long as we have the technology to feed the masses they we let it continue.
Unfortunately, I don't see a very bright future for my grandchildren.
Not new. During the Roman Republic and later the Empire, huge numbers of citizens lived exclusively off th Corn Dole, the “ bread” part of the Bread and Circuses policy. The Senate and Emperors lived in constant fear that the plebeians would riot if they did not receive same.
Riots, hyper-inflation, general economic collapse & political instability.
Argentina....Yeah, that would be it.
What was the country in South America that reformed its entire retirement and insurance system?
I think there is one and only one problem in the world today and it can be solved in two very simple words:
“Absolute power corrupts absolutely.” Take this out of the equation and mankind would be better served. The Founding Fathers knew this and that is why up until 2008 we were the most successful country in the history of mankind.
Go to congress, do your work and get back to the plantation.
For me it comes down to three types of collapse.
1. Slow controlled collapse of the welfare state where the people of the country have a chance to correct the basic problem of welfare without responsibility. (Not likely to happen.)
2. Localized Collapse of the Welfare state either in individual states/provinces or individual nations. This leads toward war as better off nation states take advantage of the weakness of the collapsing state. (Most Likely to happen.)
3. Worldwide collapse of the integrated economy of the world leading to total collapse of the Welfare State/Nations. This could lead to total dictatorships either worldwide or nation wide. Eventually ending up in a war scenario as the dictators point to outside influences as the reason for their policies not working. (More likely than 1 but less likely than 2.)
And then there is the “Zombie Apocalypse” scenario I suppose. Every man and woman for themselves and the end result is 70 to 90% of the world’s populace is cut. (I threw that one in there in honor of this being 2012, the end of the Mayan calendar.)
>>More like North Korea!
Doubtful. Only governments can cause that level of starvation and squalor.
Become a journalist. You’ll still get attacked by a horde of 100, but at least the state Stasi stenographers will report white journalists getting beat up on by multi-ethnic gangs.
I think everyone understands, now, what the “Zombie Apocalypse” really is -
a bunch of formerly government dependent “zombies” that have no other provision than to loot and kill.
The delusion of "redistribution" is that value is durable, that it can be shuffled around indefinitely to keep all healthy & wealthy. Redistribution is the theory that a $1 hamburger is still worth $1 after eating. Printing more $1 bills & passing them around does not create more hamburgers. If you are given $1 and I have a hamburger, we may exchange them and you may eat the hamburger; passing that $1 around, and/or injecting another $1 into this system, does not introduce (or recover) another hamburger into this system.
I disagree completely. Much of our government would be immune to that, and it would just make our elected representatives beholden to the unelected bureaucracy, which now has acquired the powers of all three branches and is becoming more and more immune to the oversight of our elected representatives. If anything, we need more elected representatives to help oversee and overhaul the government.
A more effective approach would be an absolute sunset amendment to the constitution, with no law or act or regulation allowed to continue in effect without the explicit and specific continued assent of the legislature, ie no blanket approvals. This would keep the foolishness at bay, as would limit the number of laws. It would be best if a super-majority was required for such things, but this is not essential.
North Korea serves as the sterling example that the state survives and thrives even as the people starve.
The state will outlast us if we allow ourselves to be disarmed.
-—a more effective approach would be an absolute sunset amendment to the constitution, with no law or act or regulation allowed to continue in effect without the explicit and specific continued assent of the legislature, ie no blanket approvals.-—
I like it.
It has all been prophesied, in the Holy Bible, and connected related scriptures. ... It is a study to understand, but it is indicated to be the coming events.
I think a good order of what you would see as a way things could look over the next few decades:
First, Japan’s lost decade. High inflation, low GDP, barely scraping by. (we are at the cusp of this now)
Second, Great Britain in the 70s. Inflation has taken its toll, wealth is ruined, unemployment high, and the dependent class creeps above 50% of the population.
Next, the socialist state is pretty much official. The left dreams of a Sweden type of state, however, with their unwillingness to capitalize on domestic resources to try to create somewhat of a sustainable cycle (which Sweden is lucky to have along with a low population), would mean we would most likely start to follow Greece’s path where we are unable to sustain the safety net and people rebel.
Finally, we move into the dark territory. The best case scenario would be a corrupt system that only masks itself as barely Capitalist like we see in Russia now. Another path at this point would be to follow the Chinese model which is a so-called ‘market’ communism where the State takes control of all industry and your job and production are all dictated by the State for whatever suits its purposes. A micro-managed State.
Anywhere along that line, you can have change, either for the good or bad. A leftist activist (Obama or someone like him) could come in and speed up the path described to hope to reach their utopia. Or, on the other hand, you could have someone come along who reverses course and ‘unleashes America’ bringing back her industrial might by freeing industry.
Of course, unforeseen events can also change things drastically, from disasters to completely new economic markets or inventions changing how the economy works (think the internet boom as an example).
I think everyone understands, now, what the Zombie Apocalypse really is -
a bunch of formerly government dependent zombies that have no other provision than to loot and kill.
That was in the back of my mind I must admit.
We should adopt the Golgafrichan currency - leaves. Cut down all the forests, collect the leaves and we’ll all be billionaires.
Right? Seems to work for Krugman, and he’s got a Nobel prize, donchaknow?
Bad things happen FAST. Good things seldom happen quickly.
There you folks go, trying to make me happy again. The thought of them taking care of one another is just too tantalizing a prospect. If past riots are any indication they may do just that. One wonders how long they will stay in their space after they destroy it and where they will / can go afterwards. Will they be contained?
The steady decay going on and on and on is probably the most depressing prospect.
The current situation seems to be telling on people already in bad ways. I see lots of people who are just plain worn out and beat down. They function only and much of the light of life is gone out of many of them. Several people who are my barometers. The guy that looks after the farm, the lady that cuts my hair, the nice guy who sprays for bugs etc. Steadily they are moving more and more into the survival mode. Little joy, little optimism, much lowered dreams, thoughts punctuated by some pretty deep sighs.
Life for a lot of people is feeling like a long hike to somewhere. No matter how tired you are you force yourself to put one foot ahead of the other. It becomes a hopeless grim resolve until you just quit and you can’t just quit can you?
“Without a vision the people perish: but he that keeps the law, happy is he.” Proverbs 29:18 Often just quoted up to the Perish part to justify the need for a plan. In this posting someone mentions that the first part is used by “some management goof who wants to justify something he just learned as some seminar”. http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2297322/posts
How quick is fast for an event embedded in a long history?
Sometimes it is stated as, “without hope the people perish” The full verse refers to obeying God’s Law and not doing so at one’s own peril. The first part, in a secular sense, is not a bad thing to remember either. Without hope (vision) the people perish (just give up).
No one knows what the future holds. We can only speculate. But I do believe that it is prudent to prepare for any of these circumstances in that you won’t be a drain on other family members, and could possibly be a blessing to them. Take reasonable steps, the kind you would take, if say you might have a bad storm that would take out the power for a few weeks.
I do however have a problem with these advanced preppers who view this as a religion and trust in their own ability to save themselves. “Whoever shall call upon the name of the Lord shall be saved”. Trust Him. Save yourself a lot of unease. He truly loves you.
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