Skip to comments.Incumbents Polling Below 50 Percent Often Win Re-Election, Despite Conventional Wisdom
Posted on 05/03/2012 10:50:28 AM PDT by xzins
click here to read article
see post #40
Thanks for the ping!
Updated May 3, 2012, 7:58 p.m. ET
Math Challenge for Romney
more in Politics & Policy »
BY NEIL KING JR. AND LAURA MECKLER
Mitt Romney’s campaign says it has many routes to the 270 votes needed for victory in the Electoral College this fall. But almost all of them rely on a difficult feat: Winning at least six states that went for President Barack Obama in 2008.
Spot Mr. Romney the five biggest swing states the Democrat won four years agoFlorida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Indianaand the Republican still wouldn’t be guaranteed the White House. To win, he would need to also carry at least one other state that went to Mr. Obama four years ago.
Laugh for the today.
Sadly though it’s over now for us.
Obama will gain control over the Supreme Court sometime late in his next term with new appointments.
May 03, 2012
Bachmann: Romney can restore freedom
By Catalina Camia, USA TODAY
Updated 17h 50m ago
Rep. Michele Bachmann formally endorsed ex-rival Mitt Romney for president today, saying the “only option” for conservatives, independents and “disaffected Democrats” is to get behind the presumptive GOP nominee.
I’ll be willing to spot Romney Indiana only.
After that, Virginia and North Carolina are his next best bets, but the demographics have changed considerably in those states, and considering them automatic is a mistake.
I’ll not spot Ohio or Florida to Romney. Ohio has gone democratic three out of the last five elections. Florida is also not automatic. It went bush, clinton, bush, bush, obama in the last 5 elections.
I believe that’s 4/5 x 4/5 x 4/5 x 2/5 x 3/5 = .8 x .8 x .8 x .4 x .6 = .12 For all of them with no exceptions to come out republican, based on their prior voting, there’s a 12% chance. That’s not anything I’d take to the bank.
At the same time, I don’t think that’s a valid statistical model. It would say the same for a very strong republican candidate or a very weak one.
I think it would be true for a Dole, worrisome with a GWBush, and ignorable with a Reagan.
Is Mitt Romney more a Dole, Bush, or Reagan?
It also depends on who the Democrats run. It makes a differce if you’re running against a Dukakis, a Gore, or a Clinton. Is Obama more a weak campaigner or more a Clinton?
I think Romney vs Obama is more Dole vs Gore. I also think Dole loses to Gore. In short, we’re running McCain again.
Except I had to read through all of your gobelly gook to get to it........sarc
Wide scale enthusiasm hasn't built for either Obama or Romney that I can see. And I haven't detected any charisma in Romney to build it. McCain had Palin for that - Romney doesn't have anyone yet.
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