Posted on 05/01/2012 4:52:23 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
PPP's first three polls on the Montana Senate race found the same thing every time: a 2 point lead for Denny Rehberg. Over the last six months though there's been a shift and Jon Tester now leads Rehberg by a 48-43 margin.
Tester's moved into the lead because of shifts with Democrats and independents. What was an 86-10 lead with Democrats is now 90-7. He's been able to consolidate his base some. And although he already led independents by a 46-41 margin he's pushed that advantage up further to 48-36.
Montanans are closely divided in their feelings about Tester with 46% approving of him to 43% who disapprove. Rehberg continues to have upside down approval numbers in our polling. This time around 39% of voters give him good marks while 49% disapprove.
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Republicans meanwhile have the early advantage in the race to replace Rehberg in the House, although the big winner is 'undecided' given how unknown all the candidates are. Presumptive GOP nominee Steve Daines is up 33-27 on Kim Gillan and 36-25 on Franke Wilmer. Daines is the 'best known' of the candidates with only 27% name recognition. 23% of voters are familiar with Gillan and 21% offer an opinion on Wilmer. It seems like this race could shift a lot in either direction once voters get to know the candidates better but for now the numbers reflect the generic Republican lean of the state.
(Excerpt) Read more at publicpolicypolling.com ...
PPP is a Democrat poll. Rehberg will win, even with Willard at the top of the ticket. I’m not worried about it in the least.
What is wrong with the Big Sky Country? Let me guess. A lot of people from California have moved there.
Good. I did not think people from Montana are born stupid.
Polls too early to mean much at this point. Dismissing ones you don’t like is as silly as embracing those you do like.
This has always been expected to be a close race though. Got a Conservative friend there and he even kinda likes Tester. He’ll vote GOP but to them, Tester does not = Hussein.
Tester has been running lots of ads for the past several months. Rehberg hasn’t even really started running ads. The ads Tester has been running try to portray him as a Republican.
I cant really guess who might win, Rehberg is popular in the eastern half of the state and Tester is popular in the Western half (where most of the out of staters live). It might come down to folks like me who will never vote for Romney and may or may not drag our asses out to vote for the rest of the ballot depending on the weather...
Even though Tester supported Obamacare wire to wire?
The only way Montanans can guarantee their firearms, hunting and fishing rights is to vote Republican. Tester and Baucus campaign as Republicans and then do whatever the Eastern liberal Democrats order them to do. Baucus and Tester would sell Montanans into slavery if the Democrat party ordered them to.
It’s erroneous to assume Montana is a conservative state, folks. Too many ranchers addicted to government agriculture subsidies.
This is PPP. It’s a Dem firm, and while it tries to get it right on its final poll, it definitely cooks the numbers earlier in the process. In 2010, it kept showing Elaine Marshall nipping on the heels of Sen. Burr almost until the end.
I don’t buy that Tester is up by 5%; he’s probably down by at least 5%.
His Amendment to S.510 (food safety bill) probably brought him a lot of support from voters of both parties. Opposition to the amendment was comprised of the same groups that pushed S.510 to begin with: commie tyrants trying to outlaw small farms.
PPP is one of the better firms, better than some that don’t admit they are partisan (NBC/Marist I’m looking at you) but this poll doesn’t pass the smell test.
Tester will lose, baring disaster.
“PPP is one of the better firms...”
Yes they are.
“Tester will lose, baring disaster.”
He should, but this poll should be a wake up call.
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