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Incredible Shrinking Country (Japan faces swift demographic collapse)
New York Times ^ | 04/28/2012 | By ROSS DOUTHAT

Posted on 04/29/2012 8:46:33 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

“THE Children of Men,” P. D. James’s 1992 novel, is set in a future where the world’s male population has become infertile, and an aging Britain is adapting to the human race’s gradual extinction. Women push dolls in baby carriages. Families baptize kittens. There are state-run “national porn shops” to stimulate the flagging male libido. Suicide flourishes. Immigrants are welcomed as guest laborers but expelled once they become too old to work. The last children born on earth — the so-called “Omegas” — have grown up to be bored, arrogant, antisocial and destructive.

James’s book, like most effective dystopias, worked by exaggerating existing trends — the plunge in birthrates across the developed world, the spread of voluntary euthanasia in nations like the Netherlands and Switzerland, the European struggle to assimilate a growing immigrant population.

But one developed nation is making “Children of Men” look particularly prophetic. In Japan, birthrates are now so low and life expectancy so great that the nation will soon have a demographic profile that matches that of the American retirement community of Palm Springs. “Gradually but relentlessly,” the demographer Nick Eberstadt writes in the latest issue of The Wilson Quarterly, “Japan is evolving into a type of society whose contours and workings have only been contemplated in science fiction.”

Eberstadt has spent years writing about the challenges posed by declining fertility around the globe. But Japan, he notes, is a unique case. The Japanese birthrate hovers around just 1.3 children per woman, far below the level required to maintain a stable population. Thanks to increasing life expectancy, by 2040 “there could almost be one centenarian on hand to welcome each Japanese newborn.” Over the same period, the overall Japanese population is likely to decline by 20 percent, with grim consequences for an already-stagnant economy

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Japan; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: demographics; japan; population
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1 posted on 04/29/2012 8:46:39 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Read “America Alone” by Mark Steyn.


2 posted on 04/29/2012 8:48:13 AM PDT by Lurker (The avalanche has begun. The pebbles no longer have a vote.)
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To: SeekAndFind
the so-called “Omegas” 0bamas— have grown up to be bored, arrogant, antisocial and destructive

Amazing how it works better this way.

3 posted on 04/29/2012 8:49:53 AM PDT by FatherofFive (Islam is evil and must be eradicated)
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To: SeekAndFind

They should import millions of Africans.


4 posted on 04/29/2012 8:51:06 AM PDT by Altura Ct.
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To: FatherofFive

Exactly how the Omegas were portrayed in the movie “Animal House”!


5 posted on 04/29/2012 8:56:16 AM PDT by ngat
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To: Altura Ct.

Oh, that will work!

They have enough difficulty assimilating their own emigrants come home: http://www.international.ucla.edu/article.asp?parentid=6996


6 posted on 04/29/2012 8:58:17 AM PDT by vladimir998
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To: SeekAndFind

“Honshu, Japan’s largest island, has a population density of 1157 people per square mile, greater than that Rhode Island and about six times that of North Carolina. Who can blame the Japanese for wanting some space?”


Packed together like sardines. Thats healthy?


7 posted on 04/29/2012 8:59:54 AM PDT by chessplayer
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To: SeekAndFind

There are a lot of Japanese and their descendants living in other countries. Maybe they could offer some incentives to entice them back. Peru has a lot of Japanese, and of course America does. The recently arrived Japanese people I know like America because here there is more living space and they can afford more kids (usually 3) than they would have had in Japan. If Japan made housing for large families affordable and available, maybe more would return.


8 posted on 04/29/2012 9:01:20 AM PDT by married21 (As for me and my house, we will serve the Lord.)
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To: Altura Ct.

I know where they can get some! How about Central Americans? I know where there are a bunch of those too!


9 posted on 04/29/2012 9:09:55 AM PDT by Sequoyah101
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To: married21

Second or third generation Japanese are not generally accepted by the mainland Japanese.


10 posted on 04/29/2012 9:09:56 AM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks
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To: SeekAndFind

Douthat’s analysis, suprisingly in The Paper Of Record, is correct. A confluence of factors is bringing demographic winter to Japan more rapidly than anywhere else, a trend that is engulfing the world. The comments from NYT readers are also evidence that the lockstep avoidance of any analysis that doesn’t mesh with the Esatblished One is to be rejected.


11 posted on 04/29/2012 9:15:58 AM PDT by jobim (.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Japan is aborting itself out of existence. Each year hundreds of thousands of lives are snuffed out.


12 posted on 04/29/2012 9:17:01 AM PDT by count-your-change (You don't have to be brilliant, not being stupid is enough.)
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To: married21
I have 4 children, and I still to this day don't understand all the complaining about how “expensive” they are, honestly with the exception of the private school we voluntarily send them too... I don't see hardly any impact at all monetarily from having children.
13 posted on 04/29/2012 9:18:43 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009
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To: Altura Ct.

THe Japs are so racist they can’t even tolerate Koreans. Koreans are genetically the same as Japanese.


14 posted on 04/29/2012 9:20:29 AM PDT by central_va ( I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: Altura Ct.

THe Japs are so racist they can’t even tolerate Koreans. Koreans are genetically the same as Japanese.


15 posted on 04/29/2012 9:20:40 AM PDT by central_va ( I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

Wait until they start driving.....


16 posted on 04/29/2012 9:21:28 AM PDT by central_va ( I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: SeekAndFind
The Japanese birthrate hovers around just 1.3 children per woman

What is the average of just the women that have at least one child? What might be happening is women that don't want children are removing themselves from the gene pool but women that do want children are having 2 or more. In time the birth rate may rise to normal levels as those that don't want children disappear from the picture.

17 posted on 04/29/2012 9:25:11 AM PDT by Reeses
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To: central_va
It is often said the the honey bucket and pachinko businesses are reserved for Koreans.

Some years ago, the most popular professional wrestler in Japan was a native Korean named Ricky Dozan...

18 posted on 04/29/2012 9:27:43 AM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks
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To: SeekAndFind; Slings and Arrows
Families baptize kittens.

Wait, was that wrong?

19 posted on 04/29/2012 9:32:35 AM PDT by martin_fierro (< |:)~)
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To: central_va

Cars are one of the few things I can think of that would ever cost any significant amount of money (even college isn’t an issue for us because my wife is a college professor and our kids will get free tuition)

But there is no rule that states we have to pay for their cars. I know I worked and saved up for my first car, I see no reason why they couldn’t do the same. I could even save up their allowance for them that they earn from doing choirs and such and use that to buy them a car when they get older.


20 posted on 04/29/2012 9:33:58 AM PDT by TexasFreeper2009
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