Posted on 04/27/2012 8:07:19 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
The election in November may come down to just three or four key states, and none of them as big as Florida. The diverse electorate and the high total of electoral votes make it a must-win for Mitt Romney and almost as important for Barack Obama, who won the state in 2008. Rasmussen’s latest Florida poll, out today, shows a virtual tie between the two, with Romney edging Obama by one point:
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Sunshine State finds Romney with 46% of the vote, while Obama earns 45% support. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate, and another three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
In mid-March, the president held a three-point advantage over Romney, 46% to 43%. Obama led by a similar 47% to 44% margin inearly February.
Nationally, with Rick Santorum out of the Republican race and Newt Gingrich soon to quit, Romney has been running slightly ahead of the president in most daily matchups in recent weeks.
In case you’re wondering, the D/R/I of this sample is 33/33/35. In 2008, the turnout in Florida was 37/34/29 according to the CNN exit poll, but in the 2010 midterms, it was 36/36/29. In this case, Rasmussen might have slightly oversampled independents, but the relationship between Republicans and Democrats in this model looks sound.
That oversample might have helped Romney just a little, as he leads among independents 47/38, a bad sign for Obama’s chances in the Sunshine State. Obama has a wide lead among women at 55/37, but Romney has an even greater lead among men., 58/31, besting the gender gap total by nine points in the gaps. Obama wins the youth vote (18-39YOs) by only 12 points at 50/38, a surprisingly close score, while Romney wins majorities in the other two age demos, beating Obama by eight points among seniors, 52/44. Married votes support Romney 55/36, while singles back Obama 55/30. The income demos are mixed, with each candidate getting three of the six categories. Interestingly, Romney wins the under-$20K category by a wide margin, 53/40.
The rest of the poll shows bad news for Obama. Only 9% rate the economy as good, and no one calls it excellent. Fifty-two percent call it poor; 49% of independents think so, too. A narrow plurality of voters think the economy is getting worse than better, 43/37. A majority wants ObamaCare overturned, 50/35, and 59% oppose the individual mandate. Obama is slightly underwater on job approval 49/51.
However, his biggest problem in this poll is the topline number. After the bruising Republican primary, one might have thought that Obama’s re-elect number would have been much higher as the incumbent who rode above the fray. A 45% result at this stage isn’t a decisive indicator of losing the state, but it’s a bad result at this stage, with Romney just now starting to unite the GOP behind him.
Polls are meaningless when the votes are going to be counted in a foreign country, under Obama's control.
Not above the margin of fraud. Romney needs at least 5 point to overcome the illegal vote and ballot box stuffing.
Great. Our country is being led around by the nose by ditzy women and college kids.
None of whom work, fight, or pay taxes in any great amount compared to the rest of the population, save about half the women.
I heard Romeny was reconsidering his SNL appearance. I vote for absolutely NO popular media “cameos” to demonstrate a STRONG down-to-business contrast to our clown, multi-media, MTV/SNL prancer non-serious president.
That said, this poll I think is just the first of many, many bricks about to fall on Obama, and I still think he'll lose in an electoral landslide. It might be close in terms of pop vote, but the kids are staying home this time.
I remember my daughter making the observation that on her campus, which was a even a bit more conservative than most — that the Democrats were much more VISIBLE and involved.
And she said that as a student, she WAS open to hearing from both sides, but that the Republicans just DIDN’T COME to campuses and there was not as much perceived presence.
Do Republican candidate visit campuses as much as the Dems? I don’t pay too much attention to that ...but maybe it’s a fair question or assumption that they don’t do it enough.
Students are busy, rushed, )and/or perhaps, drunk hungover and lazy,) and will gravitate towards whatever info is easist to grab onto at the time. Then it’s reinforced by what they see on TV and at the movies ...and, of course, what they’ve been exposed to in public skool for 12 years ...and, of course, their 60’s throwback dope smoking lib professors.
Bush had one of his early 2000 stops at UDayton, and McCain was going to announce Palin at UD, but the arena had some mechanical issue so they moved it to Wright State.
Remember....Ross Perot,although he got about 20% of the popular vote,DIDN'T GET A SINGLE ELECTORAL VOTE!
>>I vote for absolutely NO popular media “cameos” to demonstrate a STRONG down-to-business contrast to our clown, multi-media, MTV/SNL prancer non-serious president.
Yep. Agreed. You have to play to your strengths, and Romney has so few of those, he’d better not throw away what he does have. Whew! - Romney on SNL - what a disaster that would be. I get a sinking feeling just imagining it.
I knew impotence was a problem among the older set but 31% is a lot of limp [censored] in Florida. No doubt they are many of the same people who think Debbie Wasserman Schultz is fit for purpose.
I can’t believe that 45% of those living in this country still love Barry. Clueless. Just clueless.
“I can’t believe that 45% of those living in this country still love Barry. Clueless. Just clueless.”
Same percentage as those sitting on their asses, waiting on the next Gub’ment check to arrive.
This is NOT a coincidence.
Obama is a known quantity. Sitting at 45% can’t be a comfortable position.
Folks, forget any poll that polls only registered voters. They are useless. Only pay heed to those polls that score only “likely” voters. Based on my demographics and correct calling of the 2010 Mid Term elections, I predict Obama will lose to Romney, by near landslide margins. And....here is the real stunner. Obama will only carry somewhere between 8-12 states. The Democrats will handily lose both the Senate and House. That prediction based on a turnout that approaches the 2010 Mid Term elections.
Romney just came out of a rough and tumble primary race, during which Obama could "act Presidential" ("act" being the keyword). The media has slung lots of mud at the Republican candidates while coddling Obama.
When the Presidential race gets serious, people will ask the questions "Am I better off now than 4 years ago?" and "Is the country headed in the right direction?".
Romney will win. He's not my first choice, but he's a heck of a lot better than Obama.
Yes, don’t forget 2010’s historic landslide that the lsm ignores.
None of these polls can take into account the tsunamic inundation of all forms of media by the kenyan and his controllers and backers that will occur in September and October. It will be like last time but far worse. His image will be on every available space and will preempt lots of normal advertising. Romney has proved that this sort of technique, if a candidate can afford it and the kenyan has available the entire Treasury, will work very well. Romney only did it a little bit, an itty bitty little bit compared to what is coming from the Democrats.
Excellent!
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