Posted on 03/19/2012 10:39:11 PM PDT by VinL
With former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich low in the polls and splitting the conservative vote with former Sen. Rick Santorum, commentators and pundits have suggested that Gingrich should drop out of the GOP race. Political analyst Scott Rasmussen told The Daily Caller that a dispassionate reading of the tea leaves suggests they’re right.
“I think if [Gingrich] dropped out, it would be good for the party and it would be good for Santorum and Romney,” Rasmussen said. “It is much easier and much healthier for the Republican party if you have Santorum and Romney going head-to-head and Ron Paul throwing in a different perspective, than it is to have Gingrich and Santorum fighting to appeal to the same group of voters.”
Rasmussen noted that Gingrich is prolonging the GOP nomination by remaining in the contest, as he has insisted he would.
“The race to get 50 percent is a lot harder if four people are splitting them up,” Rasmussen said.
Gingrich lags behind Santorum and former Gov. Romney with 136 delegates and 14 percent in the polls, stretching his two primary victories in South Carolina and Georgia as far as they will go.
Gingrich’s campaign spokesperson gave no sign of throwing in the towel.
“Santorum and Romney are not bold enough to challenge the Democrat machine,” R.C. Hammond said, dismissing Rasmussen’s comments. “Newt is and he will.” (RELATED: Full coverage of the Gingrich campaign)
While the former speaker may possess that boldness, RealClearPolitics senior elections analyst Sean Trende has seen little success from the Gingrich campaign, concluding that “the numbers just aren’t there.”
Gingrich would have to win 75 percent of the remaining delegates to clinch the GOP nomination.
“His goal right now,” Trende explained, “and what his entire strategy is — and he says this — is to keep Romney from getting to 1,144 [delegates], and split up the delegates enough ways that there’s a brokered convention and maybe he can convince all of the delegates to break his way there.”
But Gingrich might be in for more disappointment.
Rasmussen suggested that if anything, it is “conceivable” that GOP front-runner Mitt Romney could go to an open convention with with less than 50 percent of the delegates but a big lead, meaning he would be the nominee no matter what.
“The only way it becomes a brokered convention is if none of the candidates has a big lead,” Rasmussen explained. “If that happens, you have a free-for-all — a pretty unlikely scenario.”
Both analysts agree that if Gingrich ended his candidacy, most of his voters would go to Santorum, but not all of them.
In fact, Trende predicted that Gingrich dropping out would increase Romney’s odds of becoming the nominee. Romney, with 507 delegates, stands twice as tall next to Santorum’s 239 delegates.
“The race right now is between Romney and a brokered convention,” Trende speculated. “It will be very difficult for Rick Santorum to get to 1,144 [delegates], whether Gingrich is in or not.”
Newt thinks he will have a “say” in Tampa but he will be too politically toxic and bitterly resented for being a disgruntled spoiler who weakened the eventual nominee so much, even though he KNEW personally that he himself COULD NOT WIN—four more years of Obama was made inevitable.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Really? You underestimate the Tea Party so offhandedly?
I want a brokered convention. Let the chips fall where they may.
The spoiler, Romney, should drop out.
No kidding. Hope they are really happy and proud with Bishop Romney as their party’s nominee. /sarcasm
Where are all the calls for Paul to drop out?
If he did, that would cement Newt’s lock on third place.
The author’s point is not valid. Whether it’s Romney 1100 to Santorum 1000 or Romney 1100 to Santorum 600 to Gingrich 500, Mitt has more money to make a deal with those last few uncommitted delegates.
It was only a two person race in 1976; President Ford had far greater deal-making ability than Ronald Reagan.
As could be said “ One Sick Twisted F”...and this was all out of spite-nothing more. All out of ego. Some Conservative Capitol Hill House veterans from the 70s and 80s were right all along about this guy and sending warnings. Kamikaze last ditch defies all logic and imagination and accomishes nothing—but I guess it fits the character profile from multiple insiders. We should have been forewarned. Nauseating. We get McCain and Dole all over again.
Stay in it, Newt! Run that Romney-Puke out of there!
If Mitt still does not have the 1144 yet still has the majority of delegates by Tampa time, even if by one—there will be no “brokered convention” cuz the GOP-e will conduct, and manipulate votes until the RINO wins-just like 1976.
Rick Santorum still has a small chance IF Newt pulls out now to prevent this scenario.
But since Mitt hurt his feelings Newt has become the deranged Captain Ahab determined to drag himself, Rick Santorum, the Republican Party and America itself down into four more years of Obama tyranny if that is what it takes for him to get back at Moby Mitt Romney.
How many Tea Party congresspeople got leadership positions—even though THEY gave the GOP the majority? Tells you who are still the bosses
Unless Santorum gets the 1144, and he has a chance if Newt, who KNOWS he can't win, gets out it's Romney and then Obama.
BINGO!
If what’s good for the party is bad for the people and the nation, what does that tell you about the party?
So you prefer mittens or Paul nutter ??
The fact is once Obamacare is not an issue anymore in 2012 makes
Obama and all the Dems reelection a certainty !
I know you don’t want to hear this, but Santorum is in the middle of a major meltdown. Have you looked at him the last few days? He is beginning to look a little unhinged. His tone is getting more and more strident. This is not a candidate who can beat Romney. Instead of campaigning in Puerto Rico, he should have gone home and spent the weekend with his adorable daughter Bella. He would have gotten some good rest and probably a huge boost in the Illinois polls.
Do you really think a far left wing state like IlL would support anyone but a Dem line mittens?
Get a grip .
It is your opinion that Rick can’t beat Mitt and a fact that Newt can’t beat Mitt...
So who would you vote for, Mitt or Rick, if you were the deciding vote at the convention?
The article suggested that Rasmussen dispassionately (neutrally?) discussed the numbers regarding Newt getting out.
Then we read another take on it that says Rasmussen’s ideas are all wet.
I have a problem with a pollster discussing strategies and then taking a side. I believe the best chance for a brokered convention is both candidates cooperating based on which is polling higher in any given state. If Gingrich has a huge lead in Texas, then Santorum should back-channel to his supporters that his best interest is for those supporters to vote Gingrich in Texas. And, if Santorum is up in a particular state, then Gringrich’s supporters should return the favor.
I do think there is some danger of the man with the most delegates having a large say in the eventual nominee, but, if Gingrich and Santorum cooperate, their combined numbers will be evidence that Romney is liked by just 33% of the base. In most states, Romney is having 60-70% vote AGAINST him.
I will not support Romney in the general election.
Well, I would dispute your theory, because Newt DID beat Mitt, and handily, in SC and GA. But to answer your question, I would vote for Newt. I try not to base my support on who can beat who in the primary. I am much more concerned with who can beat Obama.
Rye whiskey, rye whiskey, rye whiskey I cry.
If a tree don't fall on me, I'll live 'til I die.
What he really means is that it would be good for Mitt if he dropped out.
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