Posted on 03/17/2012 9:27:07 AM PDT by brityank
Why Mitt Romney Will Lose To Obama
by Chris Freind
16 March, 2012Being in the media, I have no friends, as it should be. If I did, however, 3 of 10 Republicans would surely take offense to this column, since it points out what is increasingly obvious to everyone but Mitt Romney’s 30 percent base of support: Mitt won’t beat Barack Obama.
Should Romney become the GOP nominee --- likely, but not certain --- he will have a difficult time unseating the President. Can he win? Given the stagnant economy, high unemployment, and skyrocketing gas prices, yes. But will he? No.
Since many Republicans are calling this election the most important in history, it’s worth a look at why Romney will fall short:
1) He cannot relate. Nominating Romney would be par for the course for a GOP that likes to elevate stiff, out-of-touch pols who can’t relate to most Americans. John McCain, Bob Dole, and George Bush I (after he acted like he had better things to do than campaign for reelection) are prime examples.
Of course, it is rare for an incumbent president to lose, which occurred only four times in the 20th century. But in those instances, sitting presidents lost to charismatic leaders articulating bold visions. Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton achieved success over Jimmy Carter and George H. W. Bush, because, more than anything, they were extremely effective communicators, speaking from the heart rather than a script. There was a widespread perception among Americans that these candidates were talking directly to them --- that they were leaders who innately understood what the problems were, and how to solve them.
On a scale of one to ten, Romney’s ability in this regard is zero. Not only is he unable to relate, but when he tries, things gets worse. He either becomes a laughingstock (an aloof Northeastern moderate patronizing unamused Southern conservatives by saying “y’all” and “grits” as many times as possible) or a human gaffe machine (“$10,000 bet,” “I’m not concerned about the very poor,” telling unemployed people that he too is “unemployed,” he knows what it’s like to worry about getting a pink slip, and “I have some friends who are NASCAR team owners,” among countless other beauties).
Romney doesn’t understand that trying to be someone you aren’t is death to a candidate. Nowhere was that more apparent that in 1988, when another Governor of Massachusetts, Michael Dukakis, was photographed riding in an army tank. Given his liberal positions on national defense, Dukakis was ridiculed to such an extent that his candidacy never recovered, with that iconic photo symbolizing his ill-fated campaign.
Apparently not a student of history, Romney is doing his best to upstage his Massachusetts colleague.
2) Romney is regressing. After spending hundreds of millions over the last six years, Romney is still routinely losing 7 of 10 Republicans. And that is with a weak field. Ron Paul is running to keep the others honest, Newt Gingrich has won just two states, and Rick Santorum, who two months ago was polling at two percent, is surging only because he is the last “anti-Romney” candidate standing.
Comparing apples to apples, Romney is faring considerably worse than in 2008. That negative trend is bad enough, but even more startling is that four years ago, Romney faced a number of credible candidates, including John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson. In other words, he is doing worse now despite competing against a rag-tag cadre of opponents who have virtually no money or organizations and who mathematically can’t win the nomination.
The proof is in the pudding: of Romney’s 15 wins (out of 27 contests), he has barely broken fifty percent in just four --- heavily Mormon Nevada and Idaho, his home state (Massachusetts) and Virginia, where Gingrich and Santorum weren’t even on the ballot. In fact, Romney couldn’t even attain 60 percent against “quirky” Ron Paul --- known for his non-interventionist foreign policy and reduced military spending platform --- in Virginia, despite it being one of the biggest military and defense industry states in the country.
Four years ago in Minnesota, Romney garnered 41 percent, yet this time (as the “frontrunner”) he won less than 17 percent of the vote---yes, 17! In his true home state of Michigan, where he grew up while his father was governor, he hung on just enough to defeat Santorum --- and that was after a dismal debate performance by Rick. In Ohio, despite vastly outspending his opponents, he eked out a one point win. And most recently, not only didn’t he win Alabama or Mississippi, but came in third in both states.
A successful candidate needs to win states in every region, an achievement that has thus far eluded Romney. A number of Mitt’s wins have been in states that will go Democratic in the general election (Vermont, Massachusetts, Washington and Hawaii), and he is struggling mightily in must-win battleground states (Minnesota, Ohio, Michigan). Not exactly a roadmap to success.
3) Flip-Flops. Conventional wisdom keeps predicting that the Republican base, weary of the drawn-out primary season, desperately wants to coronate Romney so the focus can be on Obama. Yet every time another primary rolls around, Convention Wisdom is turned upside down. Why can’t Mitt seal the deal? Because to many, he simply isn’t trustworthy.
Sure, Romneycare makes him wildly unpopular to many Republicans (whose main objection to Obama is Obamacare). But much more unsettling are his flip-flops, too numerous to list in their entirety, but which include abortion, gay rights, guns, government mandates, indexing the minimum wage, the auto and TARP bailouts, and even whether he is a Ronald Reagan fan.
But Romney’s inconsistencies go beyond the policy arena and extend into his personal life, such as the issue of illegal immigrants working at his home. When questioned about that situation, Mitt responded that he fired the landscaping company that employed the immigrants, not because illegals working in the U.S. is wrong, against the law and hurts American citizens, but because, “I’m running for office, for Pete’s sake....I can’t have illegals.” Political expediency at its worst.
*****
Mitt Romney embodies an articulate politician without a soul, one who will say whatever it takes to get elected. So prevalent is his flip-flopping that he couldn’t even decide whether to campaign in Iowa.
He’s so out of touch that he doesn’t understand the peoples’ yearning for a leader who stands for something and sticks to his guns. Instead, Romney’s “be all things to all people” approach has him foundering, and should make him easy pickings for Obama in November.
There are those who will say the media is deciding this election, because columns like this are killing Romney’s chances to win before the general election campaign even begins.
While it will be a bitter pill to swallow, those on the Right would be wise to realize two things. The “Anyone But Obama” approach is a losing strategy, since negative premises always produce inferior candidates. And Republicans looking to cast blame for Mitt Romney’s troubles should stop looking for a scapegoat and see the real reason he will flop: Mitt Romney himself.
"The People" who make up the 60 - 70% of Republicans who don't vote for him likely have studied their American history accounts of Jefferson, Washington, Adams, and Madison, and are looking for a modern inspirational leader like Reagan--a man who had taken the personal time to immerse himself in the ideas essential to liberty, and was willing and able to recognize the enemies of freedom and to engage in a battle of ideas against the counterfeit ideas of socialism.
His casual writing off of the President as "a good man who is in over his head," or that "does not understand how the economy works," is either naive or a dangerous deliberate mischaracterization.
Sorry for the double post!! Gremlins?
- High gas prices
- Soaring debt
- Low morale in USA military
- Middle East & North Africa now controlled by Muslim radicals
- Iraq & Afghanistan lost to Muslim radicals
- Economy stagnant & listless
- Inflation on the march
- unemployment, under employee way too high
- USA not respected as world’s #1 leader
- Obama worked like a puppet by other world leaders & USA enemies
- Iran will get a nuclear bomb, thanks to Obama, Inc.
- USA going bankrupt under Obama & Democrats
- Freedom & Liberty slipping away in the USA
- Obama working with passion to bring the USA down
- And....on & on & on with America detractor Barack Hussein Obama!!!
Forget Romney, forget Santorum, forget Paul, forget Gingrich.
A blind monkey, with one hand tied behind his back will beat Obama politically in a runaway landslide.
Forget the media Obama spin, forget the Obama fundraising, forget the Obama videos. A failure is a failure!!! And....such is Obama!!! End of story!!!
Romney will get SLAUGHTERED by Obama. I don’t care who he picks to run with him. Personally, the VP slot means nothing to me.
Romney’s MANY problems aside, people never vote for “lite”. They will not vote Obama-lite, they will vote Obama.
Me? Third Party if he is nominated.
Santorum 2012
The kenyan will open the spigots on the national oil stockpile in time to have the price of gas substantially lower in time for the election. The kenyan will win the election even if his name is Romney.
“Will they be able to at least create this illusion?”
Yep. Ten days before re-election (face it.. that`s what it is if Romney`s the GOP nominee), Obama could announce a major release of oil from the SPR. A couple days later, he could announce the approval of Keystone or some other major drilling initiative... all the while knowing the leftards won`t desert him. Gas prices drop by a quarter per gallon nearly immediately.
Because these are American voters who don`t study cause and effect and concentrate only on the here and now, they`ll be in awe of Obama`s “ability” to enact change for the “good of working families.”
Three days after re-election the approval for drilling will be unceremoniously rescinded “for further study.”
What Obama is going to announce is that he is backing off the federal individual insurance mandate, in favor of a state enacted mandate, which Romney is on record favoring.
Romney will be toast and we will be stuck with Obamacare.
It would not work. The oil markets know that releasing oil from the strategic oil reserve is temporary and not sustained and they are not going to drop the oil price in any significant way because of this.
I know, we send money to help him stay in and pray for sanity and reason at a brokered convention. We believe he is the only one who can beat obama.
NO—People want a change—they are sick of Obama’s preaching little high pitched voice. Its like Erkle all the time. They will replace him with Omaba Light (ie Romney) just for a change in voice. What will happen:
A) All the Republicans will Vote Romney—Tea Party Too out of fear of four more Obama years.
B) All Democrats will vote Obama because they are told too.
C) The Independents will vote for change—They elected Obama in 2008 and they are sick of him and his lies and Blame Bush talk.
Mitt Romney is 2012’s John Kerry.
Probably true, but Romney isn't the same caliber of honesty and integrity that Buddy is - many of us will leave it blank or write someone in (maybe Buddy) before voting for Romney. He's probably the only one we could have put up that will not be a noticable improvement on Obama.
Gremlins are afoot.
Your dog Buddy can beat Obama???? Is that you, Bill?
It just amazes me that he is even considered by the RNC to be a valid choice for President. Recall "HillaryCare" and the uproar that created, and that was before the explosion of the Internet (although Jim Robinson was rallying the troops then too! Thanks Jim. :^) ) - the poor turnout for Dole against Clinton's second term "because it was his turn', even though he was too old and too stodgy? Silly buggers haven't learned squat.
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