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2012 or Never: Why 2012 is the Republicans Last Chance
New York Magazine ^ | 2/26/2012 | Jonathan Chait

Posted on 03/05/2012 12:55:08 PM PST by darrellmaurina

Of the various expressions of right-wing hysteria that have flowered over the past three years—goldbuggery, birtherism, death panels at home and imaginary apology tours by President Obama abroad—perhaps the strain that has taken deepest root within mainstream Republican circles is the terror that the achievements of the Obama administration may be irreversible, and that the time remaining to stop permanent nightfall is dwindling away.

“America is approaching a ‘tipping point’ beyond which the Nation will be unable to change course,” announces the dark, old-timey preamble to Paul Ryan’s “The Roadmap Plan,” a statement of fiscal principles that shaped the budget outline approved last spring by 98 percent of the House Republican caucus. Rick Santorum warns his audiences, “We are reaching a tipping point, folks, when those who pay are the minority and those who receive are the majority.” Even such a sober figure as Mitt Romney regularly says things like “We are only inches away from no longer being a free economy,” and that this election “could be our last chance.”

The Republican Party is in the grips of many fever dreams. But this is not one of them. To be sure, the apocalyptic ideological analysis—that “freedom” is incompatible with Clinton-era tax rates and Massachusetts-style health care—is pure crazy. But the panicked strategic analysis, and the sense of urgency it gives rise to, is actually quite sound. The modern GOP—the party of Nixon, Reagan, and both Bushes—is staring down its own demographic extinction. Right-wing warnings of impending tyranny express, in hyperbolic form, well-grounded dread: that conservative America will soon come to be dominated, in a semi-permanent fashion, by an ascendant Democratic coalition hostile to its outlook and interests. And this impending doom has colored the party’s frantic, fearful response to the Obama presidency.

The GOP has reason to be scared...

(Excerpt) Read more at nymag.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: gingrich; romney; santorum

1 posted on 03/05/2012 12:55:11 PM PST by darrellmaurina
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To: darrellmaurina
Of the various expressions of right-wing hysteria that have flowered over the past three years—goldbuggery, birtherism, death panels at home and imaginary apology tours by President Obama abroad

They left out deep seated racism and hatred of women.

-Drill rolls eyes.

2 posted on 03/05/2012 12:58:52 PM PST by Drill Thrawl (Brass, copper, lead. The new precious metals.)
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To: CharlesWayneCT; cripplecreek; Antoninus; napscoordinator; writer33; Lazlo in PA
PING to Santorum list. I'm not in agreement with this article, obviously, but it **DOES** point out the importance for Republicans of reaching minority voters.

The liberals believe, possibly with good reason, that demographics are on their side. Read this article in today's New York Times to see the way they think:

The Last Gasp of the G.O.P.?
http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2012/03/04/is-the-republican-party-almost-over/?nl=todaysheadlines&emc=thab1

The two conservative candidates in the Republican primary race today are Roman Catholic. That could be good for the Republican Party long-term in reaching Hispanic voters, but we've got some hard work ahead of us.

3 posted on 03/05/2012 12:59:41 PM PST by darrellmaurina
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To: darrellmaurina

this impending doom has colored the party’s frantic, fearful response to the Obama presidency.

Well, actually it’s Obama’s unconstitutional actions
that are striking fear into our hearts.

The constitution being the only thing between free men
and slaves.


4 posted on 03/05/2012 1:02:23 PM PST by tet68 ( " We would not die in that man's company, that fears his fellowship to die with us...." Henry V.)
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To: darrellmaurina

Chait is right.

If we get our butts whooped again like we did in 2010 there will be nothing left to the GOP.


5 posted on 03/05/2012 1:04:19 PM PST by rogue yam
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To: darrellmaurina

An attempt to instill a defeatist, panicky attitude among conservatives. Some of them are falling for it because they cannot think long term.


6 posted on 03/05/2012 1:06:18 PM PST by Socon-Econ (Socon-Econ)
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To: rogue yam
If we get our butts whooped again like we did in 2010...

I thought we did pretty good in 2010. What did I miss? The issue here is that the GOP officialdom has lost its collective direction and thinks "liberal conservatism" is the route to success. Good luck with that approach...my purse strings are knotted.

7 posted on 03/05/2012 1:08:24 PM PST by econjack
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To: darrellmaurina

MITT ROMNEY - THE PROVEN BAD GOVERNOR

"As U.S. real output grew 13 percent between 2002 and 2006, Massachusetts trailed at 9 percent.
* Manufacturing employment fell 7 percent nationwide those years, but sank 14 percent under Romney, placing Massachusetts 48th among the states.
* Between fall 2003 and autumn 2006, U.S. job growth averaged 5.4 percent, nearly three times Massachusetts' anemic 1.9 percent pace.
* While 8 million Americans over age 16 found work between 2002 and 2006, the number of employed Massachusetts residents actually declined by 8,500 during those years.
"Massachusetts was the only state to have failed to post any gain in its pool of employed residents," professors Sum and McLaughlin concluded.
In an April 2003 meeting with the Massachusetts congressional delegation in Washington, Romney failed to endorse President Bush's $726 billion tax-cut proposal."

[Cato Institute annual Fiscal Policy Report Card - America's Governors, 2004.]

8 posted on 03/05/2012 1:16:17 PM PST by Diogenesis ("Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. " Pres. Ronald Reagan)
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To: rogue yam; econjack

I think you mean 2006.


9 posted on 03/05/2012 1:24:54 PM PST by Mountain Mary ("This is OUR country and WE will decide"... Mark Levin)
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To: Mountain Mary

It’s not my quote...


10 posted on 03/05/2012 1:26:16 PM PST by econjack
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To: Mountain Mary; rogue yam

Or was it 2008? LOL


11 posted on 03/05/2012 1:28:07 PM PST by dforest
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To: Mountain Mary; rogue yam; econjack

I think you both missed some clever sarcasm on rogue yam’s part :)


12 posted on 03/05/2012 1:29:02 PM PST by free me (heartless)
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To: econjack

Oh, I know ej.

I was just responding to you too cuz you asked “what did I miss?”


13 posted on 03/05/2012 1:30:24 PM PST by Mountain Mary ("This is OUR country and WE will decide"... Mark Levin)
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To: All; napscoordinator; writer33; Antoninus; cripplecreek; Lazlo in PA; CharlesWayneCT
The article, while clearly from a liberal perspective that does not value America's Judeo-Christian heritage of limited constitutional government, does have an important point.

The Republican winning coalition since the late 1960s was based on convincing people to leave the Democratic Party on the grounds that it had been taken over by a radical secularist element that did not represent the majority of Americans.

I am seriously concerned that two generations of liberal school and college indoctrination, as well as radically immoral entertainment, **HAS** fundamentally changed what was once the American majority position on basic morality, let alone for an appreciation of the role of constitutional government limited by a written document.

Sit down and listen to young people under 30 — not just the college crazies, but average people whose morality has been framed by or at least affected by everything from Lady Gaga to soap operas. I'm sitting right now listening to the dominant radio station in a quite conservative Ozarks community, and virtually every song is glorifying promiscuity, rebellion, and various forms of immorality. Do we think that has no effect on our people?

Even conservative Republican young people are moving toward an amoral libertarianism. The rise of Ron Paul would have been inconceivable a generation ago, but he's managed to plug into a developing group of voters that (fortunately) he's too old to be able to ride very long.

Many of our social conservative fights are not just against liberals but against fellow conservatives. This article points out that American whites are becoming much less religious, and minority voters, while they may be conservative religiously, are voting Democrat.

Something must be done to change that, and must be done quickly.

14 posted on 03/05/2012 1:38:20 PM PST by darrellmaurina
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To: darrellmaurina
Well, it is the Neo-Cons' last chance. But conservatism and libertarianism are going to be around for a long, long time.
15 posted on 03/05/2012 1:38:36 PM PST by Mr. Jeeves (CTRL-GALT-DELETE)
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To: darrellmaurina

Oh, my God. Such hyperventilation by Ms. Chait.


16 posted on 03/05/2012 1:40:10 PM PST by WashingtonSource
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To: darrellmaurina

This is so true that many people fail to realize. If we lose 2012 there WON’T BE a 2016.

Obama will do everything he can to ram through his policies, we’ve already seen that things such as congressional majorities and the Constitution mean nothing to him.

Unfortunately too many people are going to sit out yet again and sit at home while Obama readies to deliver the coup de grace to the country.


17 posted on 03/05/2012 1:43:47 PM PST by Shadow44
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To: darrellmaurina
Predictions like Chait's are pretty worthless -- more a matter of willing things to be true than a careful sifting through of facts and possibilities.

Sooner or later the country will have to put its finances in order, and that means Republicans will either have Congress or the White House (maybe not both: too many people remember Bush).

But the article is a good explanation of what the Democrats and the media are doing this time: make the election about contraception and "sluts" to keep Obama voters in the Democrat column.

18 posted on 03/05/2012 1:56:45 PM PST by x
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To: darrellmaurina
To be sure, the apocalyptic ideological analysis—that “freedom” is incompatible with Clinton-era tax rates and Massachusetts-style health care—is pure crazy

Really? It's crazy to think the opposite.

19 posted on 03/05/2012 2:05:52 PM PST by central_va ( I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: darrellmaurina

I understand Leftists enjoy gloating over the demographic and political decline of their most hated object; white Christians. I just don’t understand how they can be so fooled into an illusion of permanency: you don’t need to be a historian to see what happens with demographic change. The borders of the country will change as sure as it has with past demographic changes.


20 posted on 03/05/2012 2:08:18 PM PST by kreitzer
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To: darrellmaurina

Check this out...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kiaw0hgB-fg


21 posted on 03/05/2012 2:09:08 PM PST by Cindy of Nashville (What has the Democrat party become???)
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To: central_va

I think the author is blind to the flood of small scale tyrannies that govern where, with what and how we build our homes, medicate ourselves and our families, feed our families, travel, make our livings, etc.. Absolute control is essential to progressive autocracy. Freedom is abhorrent to the left.


22 posted on 03/05/2012 3:08:10 PM PST by JimSEA
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To: darrellmaurina
The liberals believe, possibly with good reason, that demographics are on their side.

Demographics favor them in Texas. Texas is already a minority-majority state with less than 45% being white, and by 2020 the Hispanics will have passed them up.

And the Republicans are botching it when it comes to appealing to them, moving left rather than right. There's no competing with the liberals by moving left, they should be trying to appeal to the more conservative Hispanics.

I don't know what the loss of Texas in regards to electoral votes will mean, but I'm sure it will be heavy. If it doesn't happen in 2016, it'll definitely happen in 2020. Hell, run Romney against Obama in Texas and see what truly happens, not what Romney's people think will happen.
23 posted on 03/05/2012 3:08:27 PM PST by af_vet_rr
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To: x

Yeah good luck keeping all those who voted for Obama in 2008 vote for him again in 2012 with almost $ 4 a gallon gas price. All the distraction, lies, deceipts, etc... would not work when people are paying not only high prices for gas but for everything else because of high gas price. The most powerful factor in elections is the voters pocket book and when the pocket book is hurting nothing else would matter.


24 posted on 03/05/2012 3:54:01 PM PST by jveritas (God bless our brave troops)
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To: kreitzer

Demographics are not favoring democrat despite all the hand wringing from our side and the delusion from the left side. After the 2010 census the Republican states gained a net total of 10 electoral votes over the democrat states.


25 posted on 03/05/2012 3:58:10 PM PST by jveritas (God bless our brave troops)
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To: Socon-Econ

An attempt to instill a defeatist, panicky attitude among conservatives.


They don’t have to instill it. Many in here don’t care if dumbo wins in Nov.


26 posted on 03/05/2012 7:05:51 PM PST by chessplayer
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To: darrellmaurina

The GOP sealed its fate Almost 7 years ago. And further sealed it now. They will not put up a viable candidate who is not fake and phony. In in Romney’s case they are actually giving us RoBama.


27 posted on 03/05/2012 8:06:49 PM PST by Revel
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To: Revel

You must be referring to GWB’s liberal second inaugural, Jan. 20, 2005.


28 posted on 03/05/2012 8:23:14 PM PST by Theodore R. (Santorum has one election day left, and I question whether the American people will respond.)
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To: darrellmaurina
Socialism always fails, always. The Left is whistling past the grave yard. They'll be hanging each other from the nearest lamppost. They could confiscate every bit of wealth in the US and still not pay off what they plan to spend. They've run out of other peoples money. It's all over but the shouting ... and hangings. History show this isn't going to end well. Let them eat a rope.
29 posted on 03/05/2012 8:30:15 PM PST by VRWC For Truth (Throw the bums out who vote yes on the bailout)
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To: Revel

The issue is that the country will break up...the US will be finished but the Rump Core US (the Fly over country) will go on ....while the lib areas will become third world fiefdoms akin to Mexico...


30 posted on 03/05/2012 8:30:24 PM PST by tophat9000 (American is Barack Oaken)
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To: darrellmaurina; All

If both Romney and Santorum, Gingrich and Paul (to some degree) understand this economic and overbearing revenue reality, then it amazes me that the left continues to suck off the ever growing minority of the supply of this revenue, knowing it’ll dry up eventually...

A total rejection of any politico abdicating the continuation and or enabling the continuation of this taxation policy needs to resound deep and hard into these people...

The problem is we are saddled with having to choose between the lesser of the two evils (AGAIN!!!)...One of the evils will continue to spend us into oblivion, and the other side is feckless and cowardly, unable (or in some cases unwilling to challenge the other side) to correct the problem...

2012 is a lose/lose situation now...


31 posted on 03/06/2012 4:48:38 AM PST by stevie_d_64 (I'm jus' sayin')
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To: darrellmaurina

I tood this to mean that the GOP must get immigration under control and make better efforts to motivate white voters in the midwest.


32 posted on 03/06/2012 5:08:38 AM PST by MSF BU
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To: jveritas

A gain in electoral votes comes from an increase in population, the question is were most of those new voters conservatives? If not then the advantage is lost to the other side as when NC and VA went for Obama in 2008.


33 posted on 03/06/2012 6:21:26 AM PST by RipSawyer
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To: RipSawyer; jveritas; MSF BU
33 posted on Tuesday, March 06, 2012 8:21:26 AM by RipSawyer: “A gain in electoral votes comes from an increase in population, the question is were most of those new voters conservatives? If not then the advantage is lost to the other side as when NC and VA went for Obama in 2008.”

RipSawyer is right.

Yes, conservative states are gaining in population while rustbelt states are losing. There are many reasons for that, and one of them is that conservative fiscal policies at the state level encourage job creation.

The problem is that not everybody moving to a conservative state is conservative. Short term, people fleeing the rustbelt to get a job results in more electoral votes for a conservative-dominated state, and since with a few exceptions nearly all of the electoral college votes are from winner-take-all states, that means places like Texas gain influence as conservative powerhouses.

Long-term, we have a major demographic problem if we can't convince Hispanics other than Cubans to become Republicans. Texas is not a swing state today, but Florida is, and California — the home of Ronald Reagan — is now in the Democratic Party's camp.

Once key Southern states cross the tipping point to have large liberal minorities, RINOs will become the norm, and not long afterward, those states will become Democratic rather than RINO.

MSF BU said that “the GOP must get immigration under control and make better efforts to motivate white voters in the midwest.”

I don't see any realistic way to control immigration as long as we have lots of low-wage backbreaking jobs that most Americans simply won't do. Economics are dominating our illegal immigration problem, and it is businessmen — farmers or meatpackers in many cases — who are behind the illegal immigration problem.

If someone can show me how to convince Americans to do farm labor that most Americans haven't done for a century, or stockyard and meatpacking work that even a century ago was typically done by low-wage Irish, Italian, or Eastern European immigrants, I'm open to saying we should close our borders. I simply don't see a way to do that.

If we can't close our borders — and I don't think we can — we have to find a way to convert our current illegal immigration into legal immigration that actually meets the needs of American business and excludes people with backgrounds we don't want, much as was done in the 1800s at Ellis Island. In the meantime, we need to do what the DAR was very good at doing in the 1800s and early 1900s, namely, teaching American values to the new immigrants.

If we don't do that, we're lost as a nation.

34 posted on 03/06/2012 6:40:10 AM PST by darrellmaurina
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To: darrellmaurina
I usually find Mr. Chait's hyperbolic exhalations to be a source of humor, if only because they so perfectly capture the sounds and aromas of the alternative universe in which the Left's Deep Thinkers now fully dwell.

What presently gives him the vapors is the delicious possibility that we stupid, illiterate, Sky-God-worshipping, conspiracy-mongering, minority-hating, gun-toting, knuckle-dragging redneck reprobates might soon be going the way of the dodo and the carrier pigeon. Toward this clearly desirable end, Mr. Chait can hardly restrain his enthusiasm.

And soon will come that happy day when he and his liberal party pals can remove their Guy Fawkes masks and stop pretending to respect an American Constitution they have always detested, or making believe that they approve of free enterprise. No longer will they have to feign admiration for our military or falsely profess to respect others' freedom to express ideas they despise, such as that obviously crazy notion that human rights come from God and not the government, about which all educated people now agree.

What a weight will have been lifted from their shoulders! And then they can get on with the serious business of making the world a Better Place, beginning of course by "dealing with" those who just won't go along, because they're criminals or selfish or insane. Old Joe Stalin knew how to deal with people like that.

35 posted on 03/06/2012 7:03:46 AM PST by andy58-in-nh (America does not need to be organized: it needs to be liberated.)
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To: darrellmaurina

I’ve read the NYT article and several like it and unfortunately, they’re probably correct. Demographics is destiny and demographics is all against the anglo/republican party. What’s to replace it? I don’t know.

Oddly enough, I don’t think that what will happen after the demise of the angl/Republican party is going to be particularly pleasing to the Democrats. Never forget, the Democrats ruined our lives and after the end of the Republican party, the Democrats enemies are our friends.


36 posted on 03/06/2012 7:26:46 AM PST by Rich21IE
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To: darrellmaurina

Most of the low wage work we can do without or pay more. If that means some fields go unharvested then so be it, the ‘magic hand’ will work to find the right price for labor without flooding us with unskilled immigrants (while shifting the costs of education and health care to the state). Which industry collapses without immigrant labor? I agree with your other points.


37 posted on 03/06/2012 7:27:11 AM PST by MSF BU
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