Final polls show Gingrich surging in Tennessee

Tri Cities ^ | March 5, 2012 | Staff

[Cincinatus' Wife]

NASHVILLE, Tenn. --

Newt Gingrich has closed the gap in Tennessee and is poised to overtake those presumed to be the victors in the delegate rich state just days ago.

Real Clear Politics' tracking of the polling done across the weekend shows the We Ask America numbers putting the state in a statistical dead heat with Romney at 30%, Gingrich at 29% and Santorum at 29%. The margin of error is 3%. Likewise, PPP polling has Santorum at 34%, Romney at 29% and Gingrich at 27%

The significance is these polls were taken on March 3rd and 4th. Earlier polling, widely reported across the nation, from Vanderbilt University and Middle Tennessee State University just days earlier showed a different picture. MTSU's polling, released February 29 showed Santorum at 40%, Romney at 29% and Gingrich at 13%. Vanderbilt's data from polling done February 16-22 showed Santorum at 33%, Romney at 17% and Gingrich at 13%. Clearly, the largest surge is for Speaker Gingrich.

Andrew Ogles, Tennessee Victory Chair for Gingrich 2012 noted, "I was excited to see the results but not surprised. These numbers show what we've always known; support for Newt is deep and strong in Tennessee. When other campaigns dropped everything to rush surrogates and candidates to Tennessee at the last minute, I knew they were learning the same thing."

Reached by phone, Rep. Tony Shipley (R-Kingsport), Chair of the Newt 2012 campaign in Tennessee and traveling today with Gingrich in East Tennessee, responded, "This is not a real surprise to anyone who has been watching the campaigns here in Tennessee. Newt has strong support among Conservatives, Republicans and voters who realize the nation is headed in the wrong direction. Newt's concern for all Americans is seen in his attention to issues like gas prices and other every day concerns. Tennesseans know Newt supports them and they support him back."

[A. Morgan]

2 + 2 = 4

NEWT = $2.50 a gallon GAS

[MissMagnolia]

Prayin’ for ya Newt ..... I’d vote for you tomorrow, too .... but I’m in VA.

[cotton1706]

Are you voting for Romney or Paul or not at all?

[CainConservative]

Doubt that Newt wins more than his home state of Georgia tomorrow. He’ll very likely go one for ten. Or two for 23 overall when you count SC.

As for Tennessee...

Poll Date Sample Santorum Romney Gingrich Paul Spread

RCP Average 3/3 - 3/4 — 32.3 29.7 24.7 9.3 Santorum +2.6

Newt is ONLY helping Willard have a better Super Tuesday than any Massachusetts liberal deserves.

Bottom line:

We must unite the two conservatives, Rick & Newt to defeat the two liberals, Willard & Barack.

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

GO NEWT! GO!

[PeachyKeen]

Woot! Go Newt! I can’t wait to vote for him tomorrow in Georgia and to attend his victory party tomorrow night!!

[goseminoles]

VA is a ST state. Why not vote?? Sheesh..

[MissMagnolia]

Voting Paul. My folks are staying home, but I’m working on them - they’re elderly so ‘going rogue’ (or in this case ‘going Ron’) is out of their comfort zone. None of us like Romney.

[VinL]

CW, if these latest polls are accurate— we’ll have to start questioning Rasmaussen- who had Newt at 18% yesterday.

[MissMagnolia]

Newt is not on the ballot & you can’t write him in. I didn’t say I wasn’t going to vote, just that I couldn’t for Newt. Tomorrow, Ron Paul is getting the vote of most folks I know :-)

[napscoordinator]

Luckily Santorum will win in TN tomorrow. He is overwhelmingly winning in the early voting. Go Santorum! Newt might get a win in Georgia tomorrow. Enjoy that Newt folks. 1 out of 10 is not bad according to some of you. Any class I attended getting a 10 percent equals an F. I guess in this time of easiness getting 10 percent equals an A. Strange times.

[newzjunkey]

Even Rasmussen showed Santorum dropping 6-points in its Saturday poll vs. a week ago Saturday when he was at 40% in TN.

I expect the Santorum sympathizers may get this story yanked too as the actual poll results thread was taken down with no stated reason.

[goseminoles]

Paul? Oh boy....

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

The “Chicken” (Santorum) has not come out of his egg yet.

But if he does, the press and the MSM will make an omelet out of him.

Newt, on the other hand, will hand them their little pea brains, in a salad. Therefore, there is NO Santorum option for us. It is either Newt, or none. I would rather have Palin or West for VP.

[cotton1706]

Well that’s good. I’d love to see Paul win Virginia. Really sick it to Romney after he and his handmaidens stole Maine from Paul and a delegate from Santorum in MI.

[duffee]

The majority of Tennesseans and Missippians I talked to this weekend at a gun show in Southaven, Ms. were for Newt. In 2 days I didn’t talk to anyone who was pro Romney or made a positive statement about him.

[A. Morgan]

2 + 2 = 4 ; NEWT = $2.50 a gallon GAS ; 2 + 2 = 4

[MissMagnolia]

Paul? Oh boy....

Oh yes!!! Rebellion is brewing in the Old Dominion.

[deport]

Newt may not win the state outright but the polling data indicates he's rising at the moment. None the less, Newt will win some delegates in TN and some of the other states most likley. Example here is the delegate allocation process for TN.

Tennessee

---

Tuesday 6 March 2012: 55 of Tennessee's 58 delegates to the Republican National Convention are pledged to presidential contenders in today's Tennessee Presidential Primary.

27 district delegates, 3 from each of the 9 congressional districts, are to be allocated to the presidential contenders based on the primary results in each congressional district. [ByLaws of the Tennessee Republican Party. Article IX. Rule C. Section 1. and Section 4A.]

• If a candidate receives more than 2/3 of the vote in a congressional district, that candidate receives all 3 delegates.
• Otherwise, if only 1 candidate receives 20% or more of the vote, that candidate receives all 3 delegates.
• Otherwise, if 2 or more candidates receive more than 20% of the vote, the highest vote getter receives 2 delegates and the next highest vote getter receives 1 delegate.
• Otherwise, the top 3 vote getters each receive 1 delegate.
• The district delegates are directly elected and appear on the primary ballot.

The 28 At-Large delegates are bound "winner-take-most" to presidential contenders based on the primary results statewide. [Article IX. Rule C. Section 1. and Section 4B.]

• If a candidate receives more than 2/3 of the vote statewide, that candidate receives all 28 delegates.
• Otherwise, if only 1 candidate receives 20% or more of the vote, that candidate receives all 28 delegates.
• Otherwise, if 2 or more candidates receive more than 20% of the vote, the delegates are distributed proportionally to those candidates receiving more than 20% of the statewide vote. (Here, the "total qualified vote" is the total number of votes cast to those candidates receiving more than 20% of the statewide vote.)
• Otherwise, delegates are distributed proportionally. (The "total qualified vote" = total statewide vote.)
• One half of the at-large delegates are directly elected and appear on the primary ballot.

Proportional distribution and rounding: Beginning with the candidate who received the most votes, multiply [the percentage of votes received] by [28 National Convention Delegates] and divide by [total qualified vote]. Round any remainder up to the next whole number. Repeat for the next highest vote getter until all 28 delegates are allocated.

The 28 At-Large delegates include the 10 "at-large" and 18 bonus delegates apportioned to Tennessee. They do not include the 3 RNC delegates. These delegates are bound to Presidential candidates based on the results of the primary. Half are elected in the primary and half are appointed by the Executive Committee with the consent of the respective Presidential campaigns. When determining "half" divide the total number of At-Large delegates by 2. If there are fractional delegates, round up the number of delegates appointed by the Executive Committee and round down the number of delegates determined by the Primary. [Article IX. Rule C. Section 2.]

• Remaining Delegates: 58 total - 27 district - 3 party leader delegates = 28.
• Take half: 28 ÷ 2 = 14.
• No rounding is necessary: 14 are elected in the Primary and 14 are appointed by the Executive Committee.