Montana has a reputation for being conservative and Republican, but that is exaggerated. Barack Obama nearly won it last time, Bill Clinton won it in 1992 and nearly won it again in 1996, and Michael Dukakis ran well there in 1988. Barack Obama plans to target the state and polls how him trailing but competitive.
We can’t take this for granted at atll. The state has DemocRAT areas and values seniority, which is why so many incumbents of both parties are not usually defeated there.
Obama won Montana like all the other red states because of Bush Derangement Syndrome.
The GOP took landslide majorities in the MT legislature in 2010. I expect with the open statewide races we will take back the Governorship with ex-Congressman Rick Hill and some (if not all) of the statewide offices which have had a rodent stranglehold for quite some time.
Would not the reason for Democrat Party strength in Montana be the unions? They have after all, prevented Right to Work legislation from passing. UMW I think is strong there.
Montana has always been more democrat than it’s neighbors, Idaho, Wyoming, and the Dakotas. Unions.
We have a long history of losing close Senate races there. The Baucus seat hasn’t ever had a Republican popularly elected. The last Republican for that seat was chosen by the state legislature in 1907.
But the states exist kinda of a sliding scale. If Obama is close in Montana again that means he is winning easily nationwide. The Republican ought to be getting closer to 60% this time.
And I predict after 2014 we’ll have both of the Senate seats.