The problem is China already owns Taiwan. Problem is the pro independence movement in Taiwan does not know that. Like I said in my post, look at China’s power profile. Distant third in military but is number one by a wide margin in terms of financial power with a foreign exchange reserve of 2600 trillion vs US at 150 trillion. Most of Taiwan’s manufacturing base for its high tech industries is in mainland China. Taiwan’s banks are intertwine with mainland banks. The mainland Chinese who came to Taiwan after their defeat still consider themselves Chinese over the Taiwanese islanders. Taiwan is politically divided, has a large presence of mainland loyalist, finance and manufacturing controlled by mainland China. Taiwan is still unsure of declaring independence unless they get US support which is not certain. As time goes on, Taiwan is being absorbed financially and industrially. This idea the China must use force to take Taiwan is only looking at one obvious path China can use, but China already is using other means of taking over Taiwan. It is already underway under Taiwanese nose.
That trend continues, and as long as they can keep the Taiwan people profiting from it and maintaining their standard of living...and then offer them autonomy like considerations. and maybe even more so than Hong Kong, ultimately they will defacto become a part of the mainland.
I believe that is the PRCs main line...they will use force only if the independence minded people wake up and declare independence before that process completes.
But the PRC has built a military that will allow them to effectively try that should Taiwan declare. Fifteen...even 7-8 years ago they would not have had a prayer militarily if the US intervened. The longer it goes, the more likely that they will be able to prevail...even if we do intervene becasue of their growing capabilities and proximity to the mainland.