2012 RED CHINA NAVY UPDATE from Jeff Head's Rising Sea Dragon in Asia Site

The Rising Sea Dragon in Asia Site ^ | 26 January 2012 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

THE RISING SEA DRAGON IN ASIA - 2012 UPDATE


(Click on any of the following images for a larger picture)
2011 has seen significant increases in major combatant shipbuilding by the PLAN across the board. From the PLA Navy's first carrier being launched and in trials, to continued testing and production of J-15 Fighters for that carrier's airwing, to the increased tempo of serial production for the PLAN's Type 071 LPD, the Yuzhao Class (with a second and third unit launched and a fourth being built), to increased serial production of the PLAN's premier stealthy, area-wide anti-air/multipurpose destroyer, the Lanzhou Type 52C Class DDG with VLS and PARS which now has seen a 3rd, 4th, and 5th unit launched and a 6th, 7th and potentially an 8th under construction, to continued rapid production of the modern Type 054A FFG Guided missiles Frigate, which now numbers 16 units either launched or about to be launched, to a brand new class of Offshore Patrol Vessel (OPV), the Type 056 Class which appears to be a PLAN littoral combatant which is already building in two shipyards and may expand to as many as four shipyards for very rapid production (30 or more units), to production of a new, improved Yuan Class SSK, the Qing Class, AIP submarine.

While increased production picked up in all of the above areas, units of the Type 093 SSN, Nuclear attack Submarine, the Shang Class, with improved reactors, sensors, and weapons suite continue trials and introduction into the fleet at a slower rate, along with the same for the Type 094 Jin Class ballistic missile submarines.

In addition, the PLAN sent its 10th task force to the Arabian Sea to conduct anti-piracy operations, usually sending a guided missile destroyer, a guided missile frigate, and a UNREP logistics vessel to perform these duties, which is giving many, many Chinese sailors and commanders in the PLAN blue water exsperience. The PLAN has sustained these operations now for several years without pause.

As in past years, other, ongoing exercises of the many new units the PLAN has introduced into its fleets continues to improve their performance and ability to operaate cohesively with their new technology, particularly as surface action groups and task forces. They do this be conducting exercies and manuevers regularly, and have the money to sustain these operations. This will continue at an increased tempo once their new carrier is launched and introduced into the fleet.

All of these developments represent significant, rapid progress by the PLAN in establishing itself as a consistant blue water presence. Indeed it is already sending significant SAGs, This has included sending their new vessels, including the new LPDs, to areas in the Arabian Sea (as mentioned) the Indian Ocean, off the coasts of Africa and South America, and throughout the Western Pacific to makes the PLAN presence known, show the flag, and protect Chinese interests.

Other Western Pacific nations are monitoring these developments and in the case of Japan, South Korea, Australia, India, and the Republic of China on Taiwan, are themselves increasing their own tempos as they can to modernize and enlarge their own navies. The US has indicated plans to shift more vessels and other assets to the Western Pacific in response.

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FINAL OUTFITTING AND LAUNCH OF CHINA'S FIRST AIRCRAFT CARRIER OCCURRED IN 2011





History was made for the People's Republic of China on August 9. 2011, when China's 1st aircraft carrier conducted its first sea trials.

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MORE J-15 FIGHTERS PRODUCED & TESTED FOR THE CARRIER. INITIAL AT-SEA FLIGHTS EXPECTED IN 2012.

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PRODUCTION OF THE YUZHAO CLASS LPD, INCREASED, COMMISSIONING THE 2ND, LAUNCHING 3RD, & BUILDING A 4TH.

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SERIAL PRODUCTION OF THE LANZHOU CLASS DDG. COMMISSIONING THE 3RD, LAUNCHING 4TH & 5TH, BUILDING 6TH, 7TH & 8TH.

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RAPID SERIAL PRODUCTION OF THE JIANGKAI II CLASS FFG CONINUES. LAUNCHING A 15TH & BUILDING MORE

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A NEW OFFSHORE VESSEL, THE TYPE 056 OPV, BEGAN. BUILT FOR LITORALS & PRODUCED AT 2 OR MORE SHIPYARDS

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IMPROVED VESRION OF THE YUAN CLASS SSK SUBMARINE APPEARED, THE QING CLASS AIP DIESEL/ELECTRIC SUB

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As has been noted in past years (see the 2010 update, and the 2011 update), the PLAN continues to build all of the support aircraft, logistic vessels, and infrastructure necessary to project the power that this growing naval force represents. They are dedicated to achieving their stated goals of extending their bility to project influence and protect interests beyond the second Island chain in the western Pacific, as well as into other areas they deem necessary (ie. the Arabian Sea, the Horn of Africa, South America, etc.) As the Chinese Minister of Defense and Member of the Central Military Commission, General Liang Guanglie, stated in an interview in several PRC state-backed newspapers last year, “In the coming five years, our military will push forward preparations for military conflict in every strategic direction,”. He then added, “We may be living in peaceful times, but we can never forget war, never send the horses south or put the bayonets and guns away.” The PLAN is developing its systems and support in line with these sentiments.




Finally, it cannot be over emphasized that over the least 15 years, the PLAN has grown their major combatan fleet by over 142%. In that same period, the US Navy shrunk by over 13%, which is up over the 17% shrinkage measured through 2009. Although the qualitative and technical advantage of the US equipment still holds a strong advantage, it has significantly declined from the overwhelming, 20+ year advantage it held just 10 years ago. Estimates now put the lead at no more than 3-5 years in many areas. The PLAN is spending a lot of money, with very few costly regulations that burden the US system, to improve its equipment and modernize it. Outside of a significant change in the economic and political direction in the United States, all of these trends are expected to continue in the next several years.

This will continue to allow the PLAN to rapidly close the gap between itself and the US Navy, and particualrly when focusing on the Western Pacific, which is where the PLAN is concentrated. This is worthy of serious planning and development consideration by the US Navy and other western nation's regarding their future R&D and acquisition schedules.



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[Jeff Head]

I have been tracking the modernization and growth of the Red Chinese Navy for the past several years...much of which is occurring using our own trade deficit and loan interest monies.

This is the latest update to a fairly busy year for the Red Chinese Navy. They are developing a strong, mmodern blue water fleet that cannot be taken lightly or ignored.

[AU72]

A good time gut our military.

[Jeff Head]

FYI...our money being spent over in China by the billions.

[familyop]

Well researched and shared—even in the face of a long, sponsored, globalist propaganda blitz saying that China is collapsing (since 2007) and should be disregarded by us peasants. Our own government, government-connected business and academic leaders are trying to keep our debt regime going at any and all costs to us.

[LibertyLA]

Preaching to the choir.

I am less concerned about the backwards camel jockey’s of the middle east. Red China, is our true potential enemy and the one country that could bring us down just by selling off our t-bills. That would be economic collapse and hyperinflation overnight. We would go into an econimic tailspin that would be hard to comprehend. And to get even we’d have to fight a real no kidding war with them. Full nuclear, not just a stray warhead or two. The real thing with high yield ICBM’s. Plus their anti-ship missile tech. That’s a real war.

But we are misdirected to the middle east - frankly I think if we weren’t around the muslims would pretty much annihilate each other. Look at the Iran-Iraq war. They almost did each other in - and we should have let them.

I am worried about countries that can field a real navy and a real air force, that are smart, and have us financially by the short hairs. Where is that in any of these debates?

[Jeff Head]

FYI...our money being spent over in China by the billions.

[Vroomfondel]

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[Jeff Head]

Cain, Romney, Huntsman, Perry and others have talked about China and what to do about them.

Fact is, China is looking similar to the build up before World War II in both Germany and Japan. Germany was a fascist country with the large backing of her people. They had a population of about 60 million and it took most of the rest of the world to bring them down.

Red China has adopted more of a fascist economic model, diregarding the failed Maoist marxist model. They have 1.3 billion people and if any appreciable portion gets behind their effort to build up like Germany did...it will be a nightmare to put down short of what you describe.

They are building a large, modern, blue water Navy. There is only one opponent on the board that that Navy can be directed at.

[Jeff Head]

Thanks...IMHO, we have to stay awake and watch the growth of Red China and their military and do all we can to forestall it. Their government is not our friend or partner. They are our adversary and will be until the adopt a republican, free form of government respecting the rights of the individual and other nations.

[Fee]

Currently 2/3 of PLAN destroyers, submarines, frigages are older ships and 1/3 are consider modern, but it seems like they finalized on which iterated ship design to mass produce and replace her remaining older ships with. Her ability to mass produce once a reasonable design is settled upon is what makes China different from the US. Still PRC military is ranked distant 3rd to US but PRC ranks number one in finance in terms of foreign exchange and assets. Comparison, China has 2600 trillion in foreign exchange/assets and the US has only 150 trillion. China’s military is still catching up and cannot be used with effectiveness on US but her financial influence is already here and being used to challenge US influence and power. China’s GDP already exceeds 2nd Place Japan and is over 50 percent of the US GDP using current yuan to US dollar exchange rate. If China chose not to devalue her yuan (US has been demanding that to curtail China’s trade surplus) China’s GDP eventually will be equal to the US GDP if the yuan appreciates in value and the US dollar continues to decline. Finance is already killing US military power.
Due to forced cutbacks, the US may lose one carrier and up to 8 Army combat brigades. China did not fire a shot and we lost these military assets due to weak finances.

[PapaBear3625]

The aggressor has one big advantage over the defender: the aggressor picks the time and place for the initiation of hostilities.

As such, they can defer much of their military spending (in favor of building up their economy and industrial base) until such point as they think it's time to attack. This appears to be what China has been doing. I'm going to guess they plan on making a move in the next few years.

[GeronL]

bump

[Jeff Head]

They are years away from being able to facce us on a genral, wide scale war basis.

But they will reach a point sooner than that where they can venture to force the Taiwan issue...or, more likely, keep ther Taiwan people from independence at the force of arms.

In thos restricted waters and right up against the Chinese mainland, they are building a force that can hinder our intevention.

It would be many years later before they had the experience, numbers and technology to meet us equally on the high seas. But they are clearly building up a force composition to allow them to do so once they get the numbers and more importantly, the experience, policies, and operational procedures in place and down.

Either way, it is something we must not ignore.

[af_vet_rr]

I am less concerned about the backwards camel jockey’s of the middle east. Red China, is our true potential enemy and the one country that could bring us down just by selling off our t-bills. That would be economic collapse and hyperinflation overnight. We would go into an econimic tailspin that would be hard to comprehend.

That's the truly scary aspect. They can't defeat us militarily, nor would they really such a shooting war - it would destroy them economically and wipe out decades of careful planning.

There is another aspect that is even more frightening. In the midst of all of this, and I think Jeff Head mentioned it in an article, they are upgrading their military manufacturing capabilities.

They are already reaching a point where they are chasing after our civilian aerospace market. The CEO of Boeing even made a comment that China has its eyes on Boeing's customers. This, after Boeing cut a deal to work with, and trade proprietary information, with the Chinese aerospace industry. The Boeing CEO, saying that China's aerospace industry ia a major threat to Boeing, and yet still cutting deals to share information and technology with them!

China thinks long term, and within 10-20 years, if Chinese companies start undercutting more and more of our defense contractors, they could sink our defense industry. There are a lot of military contractors for whom foreign sales are vital to their profitability.

If China competes for, and wins, those military contracts, our military and civilian aerospace industries could collapse or leave themselves vulnerable to hostile takeovers by conglomerates with ties to China.

You just think the economy is bad now. Watch a lot of high-paying defense and aerospace related jobs dry up if Chinese companies beat out American companies. That's something that we can't recover from.

[familyop]

"But they will reach a point sooner than that where they can venture to force the Taiwan issue...or, more likely, keep ther Taiwan people from independence at the force of arms."

With a little insight into history and the national mind, one can see even more. Look at the period of many foreign projects in China a couple of decades before and after the turn of the last century. "One China," in a more general sense and with identity frustrations, could include Korea (both of 'em), Vietnam and much more. It's also a race/ethnic issue (beliefs in superiority there). Commonly, even many Japanese-western folks don't like hearing that redheads were once close neighbors of Mongols (re. large numbers of remains found in Siberia, Gobi desert, etc.).

[Fee]

The problem is China already owns Taiwan. Problem is the pro independence movement in Taiwan does not know that. Like I said in my post, look at China’s power profile. Distant third in military but is number one by a wide margin in terms of financial power with a foreign exchange reserve of 2600 trillion vs US at 150 trillion. Most of Taiwan’s manufacturing base for its high tech industries is in mainland China. Taiwan’s banks are intertwine with mainland banks. The mainland Chinese who came to Taiwan after their defeat still consider themselves Chinese over the Taiwanese islanders. Taiwan is politically divided, has a large presence of mainland loyalist, finance and manufacturing controlled by mainland China. Taiwan is still unsure of declaring independence unless they get US support which is not certain. As time goes on, Taiwan is being absorbed financially and industrially. This idea the China must use force to take Taiwan is only looking at one obvious path China can use, but China already is using other means of taking over Taiwan. It is already underway under Taiwanese nose.

[Jeff Head]

Agreed. I have been to Taiwan many times. Over they years I visited it was clear that Red China is embarked ona "long march" to basically subverting Taiwan through emersion in their economy.

That trend continues, and as long as they can keep the Taiwan people profiting from it and maintaining their standard of living...and then offer them autonomy like considerations. and maybe even more so than Hong Kong, ultimately they will defacto become a part of the mainland.

I believe that is the PRCs main line...they will use force only if the independence minded people wake up and declare independence before that process completes.

But the PRC has built a military that will allow them to effectively try that should Taiwan declare. Fifteen...even 7-8 years ago they would not have had a prayer militarily if the US intervened. The longer it goes, the more likely that they will be able to prevail...even if we do intervene becasue of their growing capabilities and proximity to the mainland.

[Jeff Head]

You are exactly right. If nationalism takes over, and they continue financially to make gains (and that is threatened right now), then utlimatly all of Eastern Asia will be at risk should they get the fervor like Germany or Japan did.

And they are building a military to measure up to that in the next 15-20 years.

Like the Chinese Minister of Defense and Member of the Central Military Commission, General Liang Guanglie, stated in an interview in several PRC state-backed newspapers last year,

“In the coming five years, our military will push forward preparations for military conflict in every strategic direction,”. He then added, “We may be living in peaceful times, but we can never forget war, never send the horses south or put the bayonets and guns away.”

[HereInTheHeartland]

Wow, our Ipod purchase dollars are buying quite a few ships for the Red Chinese.

[Alamo-Girl]

Bump!